From: mk_thisisit
The Head of the National Security Bureau (BBN) has expressed a strong belief that compulsory military service should exist in Poland [00:00:10]. This stance is rooted in the conviction that the prospect of war is real, and without citizens engaging in defense, future generations will face the consequences [00:00:15]. Poland is currently developing the largest European land army [00:00:23], aiming to become the absolute largest land army in Europe [00:58:40].
The Debate on Compulsory Service
The discussion surrounding compulsory military service is more dynamic in Western countries compared to Poland [02:59:33]. The BBN head believes this debate should be broadened [03:00:50]. He distinguishes between military service and mandatory civic or public service, indicating he does not support the latter [03:00:58].
Citizen’s Role and Responsibility
Being a citizen extends beyond consumerism and participating in the labor market; it involves obligations [03:11:59]. While the average citizen might plan to leave the country if war breaks out [03:14:14], it would be significantly more difficult to do so in such a scenario [03:22:23]. Furthermore, military services would have more critical tasks than searching for individuals abroad [03:37:31], as a panicking soldier is not beneficial [03:37:50]. The Western military approach does not involve eliminating fleeing soldiers, unlike the Soviet army [03:38:24].
Perception of Military Service
The difficulty of this debate in Poland may stem from the historical image of military service, particularly from the Soviet era, characterized by human rights violations and problematic discipline [03:41:23]. However, the modern army offers opportunities for professional and personal development [03:41:23].
Diverse Roles in the Modern Military
Serving in the army does not solely mean direct combat. Only a minority of roles involve being on the front lines [03:42:59]. Important military functions include:
- Logistics [03:43:36]
- Planning [03:43:36]
- Servicing advanced weapons [03:43:36]
- Computerization of weapons [03:44:43]
- Cyber combat [03:44:45]
- Cognitive roles [03:44:48]
These roles are typically far from the front line [03:44:48]. Direct combat is often the domain of special forces [03:50:05], which individuals must specifically choose to join [03:51:12].
Inclusivity
The emerging debate about treating non-binary individuals in compulsory military service is considered positive [03:51:53]. Sexual preferences should not be a condition for military service or positions [03:51:53]. Homosexual individuals, for example, serve in special forces units like SEALs [03:59:58].
Preparing for Potential Conflict
Europe needs to invest significantly in its defense capabilities. The current allocation of 500 million euros by the European Commission for the arms industry is “ridiculously small” and “scandalously small” given the critical moment [01:50:18]. In comparison, Poland’s previous government allocated 2 billion zlotys (an amount comparable to 500 million euros) for its National Ammunition Reserve program [01:57:07].
There is a perceived lack of “interested parties” (countries willing to place large orders) to spur the growth of the arms industry in Western countries [02:46:00]. Poland, however, has the potential to produce advanced ammunition, guided ammunition, gliding ammunition, and artillery [02:14:13]. It also has the capability to produce unmanned aerial vehicles more cheaply and efficiently [02:24:21].
The BBN head stresses the importance of considering how technological innovations in the defense industry can influence the 3:1 ratio (the aggressor needing three times the force to succeed against a defender). This can be achieved by:
- Increasing a Polish soldier’s survivability [02:52:52]
- Increasing their ability to strike the enemy [02:52:55]
- Using unmanned platforms to strike without risking lives [02:53:00]
- Building defense capabilities [02:53:05]
- Proper fortification [02:53:08]
- Enhancing situational awareness [02:53:15]
All investments in the defense industry should consider how they change this coefficient [02:53:17].
Strategic Planning and Readiness
The process of reforming the system of command and control of the armed forces and developing a new National Security Strategy are critical projects [01:54:01]. These documents must address national security from a broad perspective, including energy security, demographic security, and security in the cyber domain [01:54:38].
Regular exercises, involving government representatives, parliamentary marshals, and supreme commanders, are essential to practice the transition from peacetime to wartime [04:43:08]. These exercises test systems for:
- Defense plans [04:49:00]
- Backup command positions [04:50:08]
- Designation of a commander-in-chief [04:51:10]
- Changes in command and control to a war command system [04:51:16]
- Mobilization of the economy [04:52:27]
- Mobilization of citizens [04:53:34]
International Relations and Threats
The visit of the Polish Prime Minister and President to the White House aimed to demonstrate the continuity of policy towards the United States as a key ally [00:59:11]. However, such visits do not change fundamental assessments of threats, which are based on actions, resources, and history [02:26:00].
Russia’s actions, including Minister Shoigu’s announcement of military reforms by 2026 (establishment of two armies and 14 brigades) [03:18:00], and Vladimir Putin’s decree to increase the armed forces to 1.3 million troops [04:02:00], indicate offensive ambitions [03:33:00]. Maintaining such a large army is a huge cost for Russia, especially given the state of its public services [02:23:00]. Investment in military development to this extent suggests war intentions [05:49:00].
Threat Assessment
An attack on any of NATO’s eastern flank countries, particularly the Baltic states, would have a critical impact on Poland’s functioning and extend the potential front with Russia. From Poland’s perspective, an attack on any of these countries is considered an attack on the entire eastern flank, including Poland [08:08:00]. NATO’s Article Five, which guarantees collective defense, is a vital obligation [02:52:00].
Financial Reserves and Gold Strategy
Russia’s financial reserves, initially almost 300 billion were frozen, Russia has increased its reserves and is actively buying gold on international markets [01:48:00]. Investing in gold makes sense if one expects a growing crisis, as gold’s value increases during such times [01:57:00], providing more resources for future aggression [02:22:00]. This indicates Russia is “certainly creating resources and structures for offensive operations” [01:29:00].
Europe’s Readiness
Europe’s adaptation to the current situation is perceived as too slow [04:18:00], with Western European countries still slowly grasping the threat [04:18:00]. However, recent discussions, like those initiated by French President Macron on “strategic ambiguity” regarding support for Ukraine, are seen as necessary [04:21:00]. While the prospect of sending European troops to Ukraine is currently not indicated by any decisions [04:55:00], the aim of supporting Ukraine should be to win the war without engaging European soldiers [05:32:00].
Nuclear War Risk
As of the discussion, the risk of a global nuclear war is assessed as the lowest it has been since the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine [07:14:00]. Last year, the risk was considered much higher [07:37:00].
The overall message emphasizes that Europe possesses the resources and economic capacity to not only win a war but to prevent it entirely, provided these resources are optimized for defense rather than solely civilian consumption [04:53:00]. The key is to recognize the real prospect of war and make the necessary decisions [04:00:00].