From: lexfridman
Conflicts have been a persistent aspect of human society, manifesting across various forms, times, and regions. Chris Blattman, a professor at the University of Chicago, explores the roots of war and pathways to peace in his new book, “Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace,” which is set to release on April 19th. This article delves into the complex nature of both historical and contemporary conflicts, as discussed on the Lex Fridman podcast with Blattman.
Context & Framework
Chris Blattman defines war as a prolonged violent struggle between groups, which includes conflicts among villages, clans, gangs, ethnic groups, religious sects, political factions, and nations. This broad definition sets the stage for understanding the commonalities across various types of conflicts [00:01:13].
The Complexity of War
Broad Definition of War
Blattman suggests that while defining war often requires a narrow scope to track specific instances, he argues for a broader understanding that identifies commonalities across different conflicts. This perspective allows for recognizing shared principles that govern behavior, despite differences in specific contexts such as ethnic riots, invasions, or gang wars [00:04:39].
Paths to Peace
Most conflicts do not escalate to war, a testimony to the human ability for cooperation over violence. Blattman highlights that war is often avoided because it is extremely costly and inefficient. His framework outlines five key factors influencing conflicts: unchecked leaders, uncertainty, commitment problems, ideological reasons, and irrationalities or misperceptions [00:25:48].
Historical Conflict: World War II
World War II stands out as a paradigmatic conflict where unchecked power and aggressive ideology led to widespread violence. The commitment problem, wherein Germany sought to act before perceived shifts in power diminished its strength relative to its adversaries, exacerbated the situation. This highlights the complexity of deterring aggression through timely commitments or strategic alliances [01:54:43].
Contemporary Conflicts
The Ongoing War in Ukraine
Blattman’s analysis of the Ukraine conflict aligns with his framework, where Russia’s demand for territorial concessions and Ukraine’s resistance to surrender highlights the interplay of authoritarianism, national identity, and the strategic calculus of war risks [00:35:06].
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
This long-standing conflict serves as an example where, despite historical tensions and sporadic violence, a formal resolution remains elusive. Blattman emphasizes the distinction between full-blown wars and maintained hostilities below that threshold, where peace manifests as a tense and uneasy stalemate [02:09:01].
The Economics and Politics of Conflict
Blattman extends his research to organized crime in cities like Medellin, where the structure of criminal enterprises mirrors international power dynamics. By understanding how criminal organizations negotiate and sustain periods of peace, larger implications for international diplomacy and conflict resolution arise [01:31:12].
Conclusion
The study of historical and contemporary conflicts through Blattman’s lens reveals the ongoing struggle between the incentives for peace and the drivers of war. Understanding these dynamics offers crucial insights into how peace can be sustained amidst the complexities of human society and global politics. Whether it’s through increased international interdependency or innovative diplomatic tools, the pursuit of lasting peace remains a central, albeit challenging, objective in the realm of international_relations_and_conflict_resolution.
Key Insight
“War is essentially a breakdown of reason, a breakdown of negotiation and healthy communication.” - Chris Blattman