From: jimruttshow8596
The recent Ukraine-Russia War has offered profound lessons regarding the evolution and impact of drone warfare [01:29:00]. This conflict has showcased a rapid technological evolution [00:37:37], demonstrating that military stockpiles are less useful than previously assumed due to high attrition rates and the rapid transformation of tools [00:41:41].
Rapid Evolution and Production
The war initially featured larger, more expensive drones like the Turkish models used by Ukrainians [03:49:50]. However, the conflict quickly saw a shift towards small, inexpensive suicide drones [03:52:50]. Ukraine is now reportedly producing up to 80,000 suicide drones per month, a massive scaling up of production that no one would have thought possible a few years ago [00:03:41].
This technological evolution [00:37:37] suggests a significant transformation of warfare, which decision-makers around the world may be downplaying [00:04:00]. The ability to build militarily useful drones from off-the-shelf electronics components (civilian cameras, engines, explosives) has been a key factor [00:35:13].
Impact on Traditional Warfare
Drones, coupled with inexpensive anti-tank weapons, have made traditional mobile tank warfare less effective, contributing to a return to positional warfare similar to World War I [00:10:46]. Tanks have become highly vulnerable, highlighting a dramatic shift in defensive versus offensive dominance driven by technology [00:11:21].
Obsolete Air Forces
One of the most significant impacts of drone warfare is the muted relevance of traditional, manned air forces [00:42:01]. Drones now serve as the new air force for reconnaissance and munition delivery, effectively obsoleting older, classical manned air forces [00:42:18]. This poses a challenge for countries like the United States, which possess large, expensive 20th-century air forces [00:42:32]. The institutional pressure from traditional pilot corps, who fear their product line is obsolete, further complicates this transition [00:43:22].
Cost Ratios
The cost ratio of drones versus traditional military equipment is a critical factor in protracted warfare [00:46:01]. For example, a Russian tank costs millions of dollars, while a Ukrainian drone might cost 10,000 for a 25 billion and are vulnerable to far cheaper, high-hit-rate rockets [00:46:39].
Drone Pilot Skill
Drone warfare has also highlighted the importance of drone pilot skill [00:35:43]. Unlike traditional combat roles, drone pilots can gain thousands of hours of combat flight experience with almost no chance of death, leading to extremely skilled individuals [00:36:11]. Younger individuals with faster response times and higher neuroplasticity may be optimally suited for these roles, potentially leading to a shift in age demographics for military specializations [00:37:13].
Autonomous Drones and the Future
The progression towards truly autonomous drones is expected to be incremental, similar to the development of autonomous cars [00:50:11]. While flying is easy for computers (autopilot), understanding the complex and ever-changing battlefield environment is difficult for artificial general intelligence [00:52:00]. The lack of vast, consistent data sets for combat encounters also limits the training of machine learning algorithms [00:52:58].
However, the rapid evolution of technology through invention [00:37:37] and the need for electronic countermeasures (ECM) in modern warfare could accelerate the development of autonomous drones [00:53:49]. As communications links become harder to maintain due to jamming, the premium on truly autonomous systems increases rapidly [00:53:58]. It’s plausible that autonomous hunter-killer air drones could become a reality within a year, with a higher acceptance of civilian and friendly fire casualties in combat situations [00:55:01].
Ground Drones
Autonomous ground vehicles face additional difficulties compared to flying drones, partly due to the existing human capability for ground warfare [00:59:17]. However, the technology for autonomous delivery vehicles (e.g., for ammunition) already exists (e.g., Waymo cars in San Francisco) and could be applied to combat zones to increase supply delivery survivability [01:01:00].
Industrial Transformation
The Ukraine war has also become an industrial transformation, compelling countries to build their own drones [00:40:20]. Relying on allies for drones is not rapid enough for combat conditions [00:40:43]. This will lead to the creation of many drone factories, fostering rapid prototyping and industrialization [00:40:57]. An independent Ukraine, for instance, might become a top global drone producer [00:41:09].
Implications for Future Conflicts
The lessons from the Ukraine-Russia War have significant implications for potential future conflicts, such as in the Taiwan Strait [01:12:50].
- Sanctions: Countries now understand that sanctions only matter if both China and the US impose them [01:13:11].
- Untested Military: An untested military cannot be relied upon [01:13:55]. China’s military, despite good hardware, may suffer from bureaucratic and logistical issues due to a lack of stress tests [01:15:31].
- Autocratic Resolve: Autocratic countries, like Russia, have shown that they can maintain popular support for aggressive wars, dispelling theories of internal overthrow [01:16:35].
- Drone Invasion: The sheer number of drones available means a “electric motor airflight invasion” is plausible, with hundreds of thousands of drones flying over the strait, overwhelming defenses and potentially enforcing curfews or psychological operations [01:17:41].
- Amphibious Operations: The defensive advantage seen in the Ukraine war suggests that traditional large-scale amphibious assaults, like a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan, would be extremely difficult [01:22:12].
- Naval Vulnerability: Inexpensive asymmetric weapons, like anti-ship missiles, have demonstrated the ability to drive navies out of combat zones, making large surface fleets vulnerable [01:22:50].
- Autonomous Submersibles: Autonomous submersible vehicles could be deployed to interdict or blockade islands by forming “Red Zones” where any boat is fair game, acting as self-deploying mines [01:25:40]. This highlights the potential for new arms races in unmanned systems.