From: jimruttshow8596
The ongoing Ukraine-Russia War has offered profound lessons on the technological evolution of warfare, particularly regarding the role of drones and the rapid pace of innovation. This conflict has highlighted the obsolescence of traditional military strategies and equipment, emphasizing the need for adaptability and agile production in modern defense.
The Obsolete Stockpile and Rapid Attrition
One of the key lessons from the conflict is the diminished utility of traditional military stockpiles [02:38:00]. The rate of attrition in drone-intensified warfare is exceptionally high for equipment like tanks, trucks, and artillery shells [02:51:00]. The rapid transformation of military tools means that preparing for the “next war” by stockpiling current equipment is futile, as the technology itself will have changed [03:17:00].
“The next war will be waged by an even more transformed technological set of tools so you don’t even know what you’re supposed to stockpile in advance.” [03:17:00]
The conflict has seen an unprecedented scaling up of drone production, with Ukraine aiming to produce 80,000 suicide drones a month [03:42:00]. This massive increase in production capability was previously thought impossible [03:50:00]. Despite this, decision-makers globally are perceived to be downplaying the scale of this transformation in warfare [04:06:00], partly due to the influence of large military contractors whose traditional product lines are becoming obsolete [04:15:00].
Shift from Mobile to Positional Warfare
Historically, warfare has seen pendulum swings between offensive and defensive dominance, often driven by technological innovation [11:19:00]. The Ukraine war marks a significant shift back towards defensive dominance, as tanks and other mobile armored vehicles are easily targeted by drones and inexpensive anti-tank weapons [11:04:00]. This has led to a return of positional warfare, characterized by trenches and a high demand for artillery shells [11:09:00].
“Drones and inexpensive anti-tank weapons said, oh that game doesn’t work so well anymore.” [25:26:00]
Drone Technology and Pilot Skill
The current state of drone technology allows for the creation of militarily useful drones from off-the-shelf electronic components, such as civilian cameras and engines, by simply adding an explosive [35:13:10]. A secure line of communication is the main specialization required [35:27:00].
A critical development observed in the war is the emergence of highly skilled drone pilots. Unlike traditional combat roles, drone piloting allows for thousands of hours of combat flight experience with minimal risk to the pilot’s life [36:11:00]. This dynamic is akin to snipers, who can become extremely skilled over time [36:44:00]. Younger individuals, with their faster response times and higher neuroplasticity, may prove to be optimal drone pilots [37:15:00].
The rapid evolution of drone warfare in two years mirrors the dramatic changes in aviation during World War I, which saw planes transform from reconnaissance tools to sophisticated fighter aircraft [38:22:00]. The current cutting edge is small, inexpensive suicide drones, with Ukraine’s production targets exemplifying this shift [39:32:00]. These drones, often used for surveillance and then swarming targets, are fundamentally changing light infantry and armor combat [40:01:00].
Industrial Transformation and Military Obsolescence
The war has necessitated an industrial transformation, as countries realize they must build their own drones to adapt rapidly to combat conditions [40:20:00]. Both Russia and Ukraine are ramping up domestic drone production [40:48:00], with the potential for Ukraine to become a leading global drone producer post-conflict [41:11:00].
The Dog That Didn't Bark
The most significant observation regarding traditional military branches is the “dog that didn’t bark” – the muted relevance of both the Ukrainian and Russian Air Forces [42:03:00]. Drones have essentially obsoleted classical manned Air Forces, which are 20th-century constructs with expensive jet fighters and aircraft carriers [42:18:00]. These large, costly assets are vulnerable to inexpensive smart weapons, creating extremely unfavorable economic exchange ratios in modern peer-to-peer conflict [46:08:00]. For example, a 1 million rocket can threaten a $25 billion aircraft carrier combat group [46:15:00].
This makes traditional capital ships akin to World War II-era battleships – symbols of power that are too risky to use in actual combat [47:25:00].
The Future of Autonomous Drones and Ethical Considerations
While the progression of truly autonomous drones is expected to be incremental, similar to self-driving cars, the development of partially automated systems is rapid [50:11:00]. The primary challenge isn’t flight (autopilot is a solved problem) but understanding complex battlefield situations [51:49:00]. Data for training AI in combat scenarios is limited and constantly changing, unlike the vast, structured data available for civilian applications [52:50:00].
However, the escalating electronic countermeasures (ECM) arms race creates a forcing function for autonomous systems [54:02:00]. As remote piloting becomes more difficult due to jamming, the premium on true autonomy increases [54:08:00].
A significant societal implication of autonomous warfare could be a shift in the acceptance of civilian casualties and friendly fire [56:03:00]. Historically, new effective war technologies have correlated with higher civilian casualties, as seen in the strategic bombing of World War II [56:31:00]. If autonomous drones prove effective, societies might simply accept a higher rate of collateral damage as “the way things go” in modern conflict [58:55:00].
Ground warfare, while presenting unique challenges, is also expected to see increased use of autonomous vehicles, particularly for logistics and supply delivery [01:00:00]. The replacement of human drivers in high-risk supply roles with autonomous systems is a logical step given the low survivability of such vehicles [01:00:50].
Implications for Future Conflicts: The Taiwan Strait
The lessons from Ukraine directly inform thinking about potential conflicts like the Taiwan Strait.
- Sanctions: Countries now understand that sanctions are only truly effective if both the US and China impose them [01:13:11].
- Untested Militaries: The war highlighted that an untested military cannot be relied upon [01:13:55]. China’s military, despite its hardware, lacks real-world stress tests and may suffer from significant bureaucratic and logistical issues similar to Russia’s [01:15:29].
- Amphibious Invasion vs. Drone Swarms: The defensive advantage demonstrated in Ukraine makes a traditional amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait even more perilous for China [01:22:12]. Inexpensive, precision anti-ship missiles have already proven capable of driving a major navy out of a region (e.g., Russia’s Black Sea Fleet) [01:22:55]. Instead, the threat may come from massive swarms of short-range drones flying across the strait [01:17:41], or potentially autonomous submersible vehicles capable of blockading an island [01:24:21].
- Population Resilience: Autocratic regimes like Russia have shown that their populations can harden support for aggressive wars over time, debunking theories of internal overthrow [01:16:59]. This implies China would likely face similar domestic resilience in a conflict.
The conflict underscores that future large-scale peer-to-peer wars will likely be “wars of production,” where the ability to rapidly build and innovate military equipment, particularly drones and artillery, will be decisive [01:39:42]. The US, with its outsourced industrial base, faces a significant challenge in adapting to this new reality [01:11:40].