From: jimruttshow8596
Curtis Yarvin, also known by his pen name Mencius Moldbug, is a prominent writer on political philosophy and technology, known for his “Grey Mirror” blog [00:38:00]. In his essay “2020, the Year of Everything Fake,” Yarvin explores the inability of modern society to take itself seriously, drawing parallels with historical periods and critiquing contemporary institutional structures [01:09:00].
Presentism and the “Clown Show”
Yarvin suggests that modern society, like past civilizations such as the Old Kingdom of Egypt or late antiquity, often fails to critically assess its own intellectual achievements [01:45:00]. He introduces “presentism” or “temporal chauvinism,” a bias that assumes one’s current world is inherently real and deserving of respect [07:24:00]. This phenomenon was evident in the late Roman Empire, where scholars were oblivious to the empire’s decline [07:36:00], prioritizing personal connections and flattering discourse over confronting reality [08:25:00].
He likens the current political process to a “clown show” [04:49:00], emphasizing a prevailing “mythos”—a set of beliefs widely accepted as good and right, which prevents critical self-reflection [10:33:00]. Drawing on Gaetano Mosca’s concept of the “political formula,” Yarvin explains that this mythos makes people believe the government is good, right, and that their support makes them powerful and important [11:55:00]. The COVID-19 pandemic, for many, revealed that “the emperor is wearing no clothes,” exposing a level of incompetence that was a significant shock [14:48:00]. This shock parallels the unexpected fall of the Soviet Union, which few observers, even radical cold warriors or dissidents, had predicted [15:13:00].
The Stupidity Quotient (SQ)
Yarvin introduces the “Stupidity Quotient” (SQ) as a “literary gesture” to evaluate actions based on the common sense of a child [18:26:00]. He applies this to the initial response to COVID-19: a six-year-old would intuitively suggest stopping international flights from China to prevent spread, a logical step the US government initially failed to take due to concerns about disrupting travel and trade [19:14:00].
Institutional Priorities and Conflicts of Interest
Yarvin argues that institutions in Washington D.C. are not optimizing for effective sense-making or quality decisions, but rather for bolstering their institutional reputations and strengths [20:51:00]. Loyalty within bureaucracies shifts from achieving nominal results to supporting internal “mafias” and protecting the institution itself, often causing a divergence between stated and real goals [21:54:00]. An example is the creation of the Department of Homeland Security when the Department of National Security already existed, highlighting how purpose becomes secondary to institutional survival and expansion [22:35:00].
This observation aligns with Mancur Olson’s work, particularly “The Rise and Decline of Nations” and “The Logic of Collective Action,” which describe how self-serving internal bureaucracies and small, intensely interested groups can capture decision-making, leading to outcomes that do not serve the broader societal interest [24:00:00].
A stark example is the “lab leak” theory of COVID-19, where Nicholson Baker’s research suggests that the pandemic may have originated from “gain of function” experiments on bat coronaviruses, funded by American grants and conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology [25:47:00]. Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, a recipient of such funding, was even appointed to lead the committee investigating the pandemic’s origins [35:36:00]. This scenario illustrates a profound conflict of interest, where the very institutions involved in potentially creating the problem are tasked with solving it, prioritizing self-preservation over public welfare [39:12:00].
The Hippocratic Oath as a Memetic Strategy
Yarvin extends this analysis to the Hippocratic Oath, arguing that the principle of “first, do no harm” (primum non nocere) functions as a “memetic strategy” [42:30:00]. Historically, a doctor in Hippocrates’ time faced personal risk if a patient died under their care, especially if the patient was powerful [41:40:00]. Therefore, the doctor’s primary concern was not being seen to “screw up” [41:55:00]. This creates a conflict of interest: avoiding harm to reputation (or life) becomes more important than taking risks for a potentially greater patient benefit. The oath serves to “brainwash” the patient into believing the doctor is acting solely in their interest, when in fact, the doctor is also acting in their own self-preservation [42:49:00]. When such principles become unquestionable “mythos,” they lead to rigidity and an inability to adapt, potentially resulting in the entire mythos being discarded [43:16:00].
The Failed Lockdown: Hammer Without the Dance
During COVID-19, the West adopted a lockdown strategy, inspired by China’s aggressive “test, trace, and isolate” approach [45:21:00]. However, Yarvin points out that American institutions lacked the “state capacity” to implement such a strategy effectively [47:45:00]. The US government, unable to accurately count or track its citizens, was ill-equipped for a Chinese-style lockdown [50:08:00].
He references Tomas Pueyo’s influential “Hammer and the Dance” essay, which outlined an effective government response to the virus [48:30:00]. Yarvin highlights the “impedance mismatch” [54:48:00]: Pueyo’s advice was reasonable for a capable government like Taiwan’s, but not for the US, which he compares to a cardiologist telling a 75-year-old heart patient to run a marathon [52:50:00]. This led to a “permanent war mentality” [54:25:00] where the goal shifted from eradication or herd immunity to simply “controlling” the virus, leading to thrashing behavior rather than effective action [53:56:00].
From Monarchy to Oligarchy: The Decline of State Capacity
Yarvin contrasts the modern state’s incompetence with past successes like the Manhattan Project during World War II, which he describes as being run like a startup with “monarchical governance” [59:41:00]. It had clear, top-down leadership (Oppenheimer and General Groves) and could direct top researchers to specific tasks [58:55:00]. He humorously imagines a modern version of the Manhattan Project failing, bogged down by grant proposals and proceduralism [57:19:00].
The successor to the Manhattan Project, the Department of Energy, is now notoriously incompetent, indicating a systemic deterioration of the institution itself [01:01:02]. Yarvin argues that this decline stems from a shift in the nature of governance: from a de facto “monarchy” under figures like FDR in the 1930s (who wielded broad executive power, creating and destroying agencies, and delegating to effective managers like Harry Hopkins) [01:01:40], to a modern “oligarchy” [00:59:47]. In this oligarchical system, accountability is absent, as seen in the lack of repercussions for mistakes made by agencies like the CDC and FDA [01:04:00]. Businesses, by contrast, still operate like “monarchies” with accountable leaders [01:03:38]. The shift in the “constitutional system” from a flexible, monarchical structure to a rigid, unaccountable oligarchy is, for Yarvin, the root cause of institutional failure [01:04:57].
Conclusion
Yarvin’s analysis suggests that the institutional failures observed in 2020 are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a fundamental shift in governance from effective, accountable, and often top-down structures to decentralized, self-serving, and unaccountable bureaucracies that prioritize internal process and prestige over tangible results. This, he argues, has led to a society that is increasingly out of touch with reality and incapable of effective action.