Constraints and change in complex systems

From: jimruttshow8596

Introduction

The management of complex systems, particularly in times of crisis, requires a distinct approach compared to traditional management methodologies. Drawing on complexity science, this field emphasizes understanding system dynamics, emergent properties, and the strategic management of constraints rather than direct control of outcomes [00:01:06]. Dave Snowden, creator of the Cynefin framework and SenseMaker, focuses on practical, applied complexity thinking for organizational decision-making [00:01:57].

Understanding Complex Systems

A foundational concept is the distinction between complicated and complex systems, which is central to the Cynefin framework [00:02:44].

• Complicated Systems: Derived from the Latin “to unfold” (complicare), these systems can be taken apart and put back together again because their logic is inherent in their static design [00:03:53]. An example is a lawnmower motor or a Boeing 777 airplane [00:05:34]. Such systems have predictable, linear material causality [00:06:09].
• Complex Systems: Originating from the Greek “entangled,” these systems are constantly shifting and changing [00:03:55]. They cannot be reliably taken apart and reassembled, as much of their information resides in their dynamics [00:05:08]. A human cell or an economy are examples where halting and restarting does not restore the original state [00:05:20]. Complex systems lack linear material causality, exhibiting dispositionality and modulation instead of direct cause-and-effect [00:06:09]. Their properties as a whole are different from the properties of their parts; for instance, superconductivity emerges from a clump of electrons, which cannot be predicted from individual electron behavior [00:06:47].

Emergence is a key aspect of complex systems, where new properties arise from interactions that cannot be reduced to individual components [00:07:10]. Complex systems are also typically open, or at least semi-permeable, allowing for continuous exchange of energy and material with their environment [00:11:19]. Unlike closed systems which are subject to the second law of Thermodynamics, open complex systems at their own level are not [00:12:04].

The Role of Constraints

Constraints are crucial in complexity thinking, differing from traditional systems thinking’s focus on boundaries [00:08:04].

• Types of Constraints: A key distinction is made between “enabling constraints” and “governing constraints” [00:07:53].
  • Ordered Systems: Generally governed and contained by boundaries [00:07:57].
  • Complex Systems: Defined by connectivity rather than boundaries, they are primarily influenced by enabling constraints [00:08:01].
• Managing Constraints: The output of a complex system cannot be directly controlled. Instead, change is managed by identifying and influencing constraints [00:08:35]. The core principle is to understand the current state (“where you are”) and then identify the “adjacent possible”—what can be done next [00:09:18]. This is likened to the “next right thing” philosophy [00:09:14].
• Modulators: Constraints and “Constructors” (entities that produce transformations) are the two main types of modulators in play [00:10:40]. Mapping these modulators and their control points is essential for influencing emergence [00:09:34]. This strategy shifts from setting goals to establishing a sense of direction [00:09:28].

Strategic Interventions in Crisis and Change

A field guide titled “Managing Complexity and Chaos in Times of Crisis” evolved from a crisis-specific document (during COVID-19) into a generic guide for managing complex adaptive systems [00:02:07]. It emphasizes that in a world where the future is unpredictable (“unknowable unknowns”), systems must be built to handle unanticipated events [00:21:26].

Practical Management Principles

1. Build Informal Networks: In a crisis, human beings rely on informal networks for decision-making more than formal systems [00:28:53]. Rapidly building dense informal networks across silos (e.g., using “entangled trios”) is vital for rapid knowledge flow [00:29:25].
2. Map Knowledge at the Right Granularity: Knowledge should be stored and mapped at a fine-grain level to allow for rapid repurposing and “acceptation” (exaptation in evolutionary biology) [00:29:57]. The “right level of granularity” is achieved when there’s agreement on its placement within a framework (e.g., energy cost vs. time to change) [00:32:00]. This approach yields “lots and lots of small things from lots and lots of different perspectives continuously coming into the system” [00:43:14].
3. Set Draconian Constraints: In a crisis, leaders must act decisively and quickly to stabilize the situation, prioritizing “option-increasing decisions” over immediately decisive ones [00:34:28]. This means creating constraints that preserve or expand future choices, rather than limiting them [00:35:07]. This is akin to “anticipatory thinking” where small actions now create more options later [00:35:58].
4. Implement Comprehensive Journaling (Gamba): This involves continuous, real-time capture of observations and experiences at the lowest level of granularity [00:39:40]. It reduces traditional reporting burdens while providing rich, real-time data from multiple agents [00:40:03]. Journaling generates “lessons learning” (continuous, real-time insights) rather than “lessons learned” (lagging, retrospective analysis) [01:06:07]. Leveraging large language models (LLMs) and embedded vector spaces can automate aggregation, summarization, and clustering of this data, providing automated insights and alerts [00:44:42].
5. Create Specialized Crews: Form highly focused, collective teams for specific functions in a crisis, such as a “continuity crew,” “journaling crew,” or “devil’s advocate crew” [00:48:43]. These crews, based on roles and role interaction, can exhibit emergent intelligence greater than their individual members [00:49:20]. Optimal crew sizes, often mirroring natural group sizes (e.g., 3-5 people for active decision-making, or up to 50 for self-sustaining units like extended families or military platoons), facilitate compromise and effective action [00:51:14].
6. Maintain Cadence: Post-crisis, it’s vital to maintain a rhythmic pace of activity (cadence) rather than just velocity [01:05:26]. This involves continuous use of sensor networks, informal networks, and distributed knowledge to adjust to changing circumstances [01:05:50].

Apparetic Moments and Acceptation

• Apparetic (Aporia): An “apparetic moment” is a situation where one cannot answer a question or solve a problem using existing modes of thought, forcing a different perspective [00:03:13]. This concept, derived from Greek philosophy, highlights the need for a shift in perspective, not just more information [00:56:06]. In a crisis, people need to be “booed into aporia” to break from “business as usual” thinking [00:56:42].
• Acceptation: This refers to the repurposing of existing knowledge, technologies, or capabilities for novel uses [00:30:15]. It’s a key driver of innovation and evolution, where components originally designed for one purpose are “exapted” to serve new functions (e.g., a radar Magnetron leading to microwave ovens) [01:00:00]. This process is fostered by abstracting knowledge and then re-associating it at a higher level, which shortens the “gradient” or “ridge” between different ideas or basins of attraction [01:02:58].

Advanced Strategic Approaches

Esterline Mapping (Applied Constructor Theory)

This emerging method, inspired by Constructor Theory in physics, provides a “complexity alternative to Porter’s five forces” for strategic planning [01:17:45].

• Core Principle: Instead of predicting outcomes, it focuses on identifying what is impossible to change and managing the “dispositionality” of the system to make desired outcomes more probable [01:17:14].
• Process:
  1. Constraint Mapping: Constraints are mapped onto a grid based on their “energy cost of change” (resource and attention required) and “time to change” [01:18:29].
  2. Counterfactual Line: A line is drawn to delineate things that are too costly or time-consuming to change, establishing what “cannot change” [01:18:41]. A “liminal line” identifies constraints that could be changed by others outside the direct sphere of influence [01:19:00].
  3. Vulnerability/Variability: The bottom-left quadrant identifies areas of high variability or vulnerability [01:19:11].
  4. Micro-actions: The process generates numerous “micro-actions” (50-60) designed to increase or lower the energy cost and time to change specific constraints [01:19:30]. This shifts the system’s disposition, making desired outcomes more probable [01:19:37].
• Benefits: This approach creates a non-controversial mapping of operational space, allowing different parts of an organization (or even different levels of government) to align their actions towards a shared direction without requiring top-down outcome goals [01:21:00]. It combines grand strategy and tactics into a single framework [01:26:48].

Narrative Topographies

Using SenseMaker, organizations can gather “micro-scenarios” from their workforce to create “narrative topographies” [01:10:18]. These “fitness landscapes with narrative” [01:10:55] indicate where an organization can go next, rather than where it wishes to be [01:11:16]. By presenting this data in a “fractal” manner, it allows for alignment across different levels of an organization or society, from national leaders to local school principals, each making changes relevant to their competence to act [01:12:47]. This process focuses on creating “more stories like these and fewer stories like those,” fostering continuous, parallel small changes and learning [01:13:36].