From: jameskerlindsay
Yemen, located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, holds significant strategic importance due to its position where the Red Sea meets the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean [01:45:00]. This waterway is crucial for global trade, with approximately 30% of the world’s container traffic, accounting for about 12% of global trade, passing through it [02:03:00]. Despite its global relevance, Yemen has been plagued by internal divisions and conflicts that have only recently garnered international attention following attacks on Red Sea shipping [01:07:00].
Geographical and Demographic Context
Yemen has a population of around 30 million people [02:28:00]. While predominantly Muslim and Arab, the population is divided into numerous tribal groups [02:33:00]. A significant religious divide also exists: 30-40% of the population are Shia Muslims, mainly residing in the Northwest, while the rest are Sunni Muslims, spread across the South and sparsely populated East [02:39:00]. The narrow Bab El Mandeb, or ‘Straight of Tears’, separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea, through which around 24,000 ships passed in 2023 [02:13:00].
Historical Divisions
Yemen has a long history, being one of the first areas to adopt Islam in the 7th century, with the Ottoman Empire establishing a presence in the 16th century [02:55:00]. The modern divisions began in 1839 when the British East India Company seized the port of Aden, subsequently extending British influence over surrounding sultanates and emirates [03:07:00].
After the First World War, the northern areas under Ottoman rule gained independence, becoming the Kingdom of Yemen [03:21:00]. However, the South remained under British Imperial control [03:26:00].
By the 1960s, instability grew in both parts of Yemen [03:32:00]. As Britain prepared for decolonization, an anti-colonial uprising erupted in the South [03:39:00]. Concurrently, in the North, the monarchy was overthrown, leading to a civil war between republicans and royalists [03:45:00]. By the end of the decade, the situation stabilized: Britain departed in November 1967, and the People’s Republic of South Yemen gained independence [03:53:00]. In the North, now known as the Yemen Arab Republic, the royalists were largely defeated the following year [04:04:00].
Attempts at Unification
From the outset, there was pressure for unification [04:13:00]. The North, which viewed British rule as illegitimate, envisioned a unified greater Yemen [04:17:00]. Popular calls for union were also strong due to a shared sense of identity [04:24:00].
However, hopes for a swift merger were short-lived [04:31:00]. In June 1969, South Yemen came under communist rule, becoming the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, which sparked tensions and a brief border war in 1972 [04:35:00]. While both sides later agreed that unification remained their objective, political instability prevented further talks, leading to another border conflict in 1979 [04:49:00]. Progress stalled for much of the 1980s [05:04:00].
The 1990 Unification
By the end of the 1980s, conditions changed [05:12:00]. The weakening of the Soviet Union, a crucial supporter of the impoverished South, made a deal with the economically more prosperous North increasingly attractive [05:16:00]. In the North, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power since 1978, also faced economic pressures and saw unification as a way to strengthen his political position [05:26:00].
Formal discussions began in April 1988, leading to a draft constitution the following year [05:40:00]. On May 22, 1990, the two parts united to form the Republic of Yemen [05:47:00].
Post-Unification Conflicts
Despite initial celebrations, problems quickly arose [05:56:00]. With Saleh as president of a united Yemen, the more populous and prosperous North dominated the state [06:00:00]. Consequently, on May 21, 1994, Southern leaders unilaterally declared independence, sparking Yemen’s first post-unification civil war [06:07:00]. Although the uprising was suppressed within two months, pro-independence sentiment persisted [06:20:00].
Saleh continued his autocratic rule until 2011, when popular protests erupted following the Arab Spring [06:27:00]. After being seriously injured in an assassination attempt, Saleh resigned in February 2012, transferring power to Vice President Abdul Rabu Mansour Hadi [06:46:00].
The new administration faced substantial internal problems, including economic deterioration, high unemployment, food shortages, and a growing threat from jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State [07:10:00]. A pro-independence movement also gained strength in the South [07:38:00]. The most severe challenge came from the Houthi Movement (Ansar Allah) in the North, an Islamist group fighting government forces since 2004, supported by Iran to destabilize the Gulf [07:44:00].
In September 2014, Houthi forces, allied with troops loyal to former president Saleh, seized the capital Sanaa [08:06:00]. Within six months, they reached Aden, the national government’s new home, and President Hadi fled the country in March 2015 [08:13:00].
Escalation and International Intervention
The conflict escalated dramatically when various Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, intervened in March 2015 with Western support, fearing Yemen would fall to Iranian-backed forces [08:27:00]. The Saudi Coalition initially made progress, rapidly retaking much of the South [08:48:00]. They allied with the pro-independence Southern Movement against the Houthi threat [09:00:00].
However, this partnership ended in May 2017 when fighting erupted between the allies [09:11:00]. The Southern Movement, having established the Southern Transitional Council (STC) to reclaim independence, seized Aden [09:18:00]. The situation further complicated when the UAE withdrew from the Saudi Coalition and switched its support to the STC [09:27:00].
By 2018, the situation deteriorated sharply. After Houthi missile launches against Saudi Arabia, Riyadh imposed an air and naval blockade on the heavily populated North, leading to a severe humanitarian disaster [09:38:00]. Localized ceasefires were agreed upon later that year, but the conflict continued [10:03:00]. The STC and Hadi government continued to oscillate between cooperation and conflict, with a Saudi-brokered power-sharing agreement collapsing by mid-2020 [10:14:00].
Recent Developments and Peace Efforts
By 2022, the situation appeared to shift. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Hadi agreed to hand over power to a presidential council, paving the way for a nationwide ceasefire that lasted six months [10:30:00]. While fighting resumed, it did so at a lower level, opening the way for peace talks between the various sides, including Saudi Arabia and the Houthis [10:46:00]. A Chinese-brokered peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in early 2023 also helped ease tensions [10:59:00].
Despite some positive steps like prisoner swaps, the situation in Yemen remains precarious, with two-thirds of the population (around 20 million people) still in desperate need of humanitarian assistance [11:10:00].
Red Sea Attacks and Global Implications
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has posed a significant new threat [11:29:00]. The Houthis announced they would attack any ships destined for Israel, leading to numerous drone and missile strikes against shipping in the Red Sea [11:35:00]. This has prompted major shipping companies like Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company, as well as oil giant BP, to suspend operations in the region due to growing danger and rising insurance costs [12:05:00].
This disruption to a vital trade route could have significant effects on the international economy [12:27:00]. In response, the United States announced the creation of Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18, 2023, a multinational naval task force involving ten countries to protect Red Sea shipping [12:41:00].
Crucially, this task force does not include most Red Sea states or Arab states other than Bahrain, where the mission is based [13:06:00]. This highlights a greater problem: while critical for world trade, the mission could destabilize the region if not handled carefully [13:20:00]. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for instance, have not participated due to ongoing peace talks [13:28:00]. There are concerns that direct strikes against the Houthis could upset the delicate situation on the ground in Yemen, potentially reigniting Yemen’s civil war and risking Iranian retaliation [13:40:00]. The United States acknowledges this delicate balance between maritime safety and regional stability, currently opting to intercept drones and missiles rather than directly attack Houthi forces [14:17:00]. However, if the situation escalates further, calls for more direct action could emerge, potentially plunging Yemen back into brutal conflict and reigniting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran [14:41:00].