From: jameskerlindsay
Once close allies, tensions between Turkey and Israel have steadily risen over the past two decades, now appearing to be close to a boiling point [00:00:03]. Against the backdrop of growing tensions in Syria, there is a significant threat of a confrontation between their forces [00:00:17].
Historical Overview
Early Relations and Recognition
Turkey and Israel are situated at the eastern end of the Mediterranean, approximately 120 miles (200 kilometres) apart [00:01:33]. Though both are relatively modern states, founded in 1923 and 1948 respectively [00:02:05], their relationship dates back centuries to the Ottoman Empire, which provided sanctuary for Jews fleeing persecution in Europe [00:02:12].
After the Second World War and the establishment of the state of Israel, Turkey voted against the UN plan to partition Palestine and abstained from the vote to admit Israel to the United Nations [00:02:34]. However, on March 28, 1949, Turkey became the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel, establishing diplomatic relations shortly thereafter [00:02:44]. This decision was rooted in a shared geostrategic outlook, as both countries aligned with the Western camp during the Cold War and shared similar secular nationalist traditions [00:02:56].
Evolving Cautious Ties
Over the following decades, the relationship evolved slowly [00:03:15]. Turkey maintained a generally distant relationship with much of the Arab world, preferring to focus on Europe and the West [00:03:21]. Ankara was cautious about alienating its ties with the wider Middle East by appearing too close to Israel [00:03:28]. Additionally, domestic political concerns existed, as close ties with Israel could cause resentment among religious parts of Turkish society supporting the Palestinian cause [00:03:38]. Consequently, Turkish governments would often step back from relations with Israel during periods of heightened tension in the Middle East [00:03:49].
The “Golden Age” of the 1990s
The golden age of Turkish-Israel relations occurred in the 1990s [00:04:00]. With the end of the Cold War and initial steps toward Israeli-Palestinian peace, cooperation between Turkey and Israel dramatically increased [00:04:05]. Diplomatic relations were strengthened in 1991, leading to a free trade agreement [00:04:16]. The relationship was particularly strong in military and security engagement, with growing defense industry cooperation and high-profile training agreements [00:04:22].
Deterioration of Relations
AKP Rule and Policy Shift
The critical turning point came in November 2002 when the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, won national elections in Turkey [00:04:45]. Although the AKP initially affirmed closeness to the West and pursuit of European Union membership, Turkish foreign policy began to pivot towards the Arab Middle East [00:04:58].
Initially, this shift was handled carefully to avoid alienating Israel, with Ankara attempting to present itself as an honest broker [00:05:11]. However, as the decade progressed, the Turkish government became increasingly critical of Israeli policies towards the Palestinians [00:05:23]. This public criticism intensified following a heated exchange between Erdoğan and Israeli President Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2009 [00:05:32].
Mavi Marmara Incident (2010)
The critical moment of deterioration occurred in May 2010, when a convoy of Turkish ships attempting to deliver aid to Gaza, which was under Israeli blockade, was raided by Israeli commandos in international waters [00:05:47]. This incident resulted in nine deaths and over 30 injuries [00:05:55]. In response, Turkey withdrew its ambassador to Israel, severely damaging the once-solid relationship [00:06:03]. Erdoğan became an increasingly vocal critic of Israel internationally [00:06:11].
Attempts at Reconciliation
In March 2013, then-President Obama facilitated a call between Erdoğan and Benjamin Netanyahu, leading to an agreement to restore diplomatic relations in return for an Israeli apology [00:06:28]. Three years later, the Israeli government agreed to pay $20 million in compensation to the families of those killed in the raid [00:06:41]. However, this progress was short-lived, with relations again deteriorating in May 2018 after heavy fighting in Gaza [00:06:50].
Another effort to rebuild relations began in January 2022, culminating in the first direct phone call between the Turkish and Israeli foreign ministers in 13 years [00:07:01]. Weeks later, Erdoğan welcomed the Israeli president to Ankara, seen as a breakthrough for bilateral relations [00:07:14]. The leaders discussed expanding trade and energy cooperation [00:07:26]. Yet again, this thaw was brief, collapsing 18 months later [00:07:33].
Current Crisis and Future Outlook
The latest deterioration was spurred by Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 [00:07:43]. As Israel retaliated with a full-scale military campaign in Gaza, Erdoğan became increasingly outspoken, accusing Israeli leaders of war crimes and genocide [00:07:51]. This led to Turkey severing diplomatic ties with Israel in November 2024 [00:08:04].
A critical development followed weeks later with the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, which saw Turkey emerge as a key international actor in the country [00:08:14]. Turkey maintains a military presence in northern Syria, viewing the de facto autonomous Syrian Kurdish region as a threat [00:08:31].
Israel views the expanding Turkish role in Syria as a substantial security threat [00:08:50]. On April 2, Israel carried out airstrikes against several Syrian military installations, including two air bases reportedly considered by Ankara for its forces [00:08:56]. Israel explicitly stated these attacks were directed at Turkey, accusing Ankara of playing a negative role in Syria and attempting to make it a Turkish protectorate [00:09:07].
Risk of Conflict and De-escalation Efforts
Given their poor recent relations and Israel’s clear stance on Turkish encroachment in Syria, the two countries appear on a dangerous collision course [00:09:33]. However, any confrontation might be limited to Syria, as neither state desires escalation onto their national territories [00:09:52]. Conflict could involve armed clashes, local proxies, or cyber attacks [00:10:01].
Steps have been taken to avoid unwanted escalation. Azerbaijan reportedly hosted talks between Turkish and Israeli officials to establish a deconfliction mechanism [00:10:15]. Although the Turkish foreign minister stated these are technical talks limited to operational coordination and not broader normalization, this effort is viewed as a welcome sign [00:10:33].
Despite these efforts, the broader international implications of any conflict, even if confined to Syria, could be enormous [00:11:01]. Such a confrontation could plunge Syria back into chaos, potentially reigniting the civil war and drawing in other regional actors [00:11:05]. Given that both are significant regional military powers, the potential for a disastrous escalation is evident [00:11:28]. Concerns also exist about the United States’ capability to manage such a crisis [00:11:36]. These growing tensions are viewed with deep concern [00:11:49].