From: jameskerlindsay
For many years, Syria has been considered a pariah state, largely shunned by the international community [00:00:00]. However, recent developments indicate a potential shift in its global standing, with some countries beginning to re-establish diplomatic ties and advocate for its reintegration into regional bodies like the Arab League [00:00:06].
Defining a Pariah State
Pariah states, also known as rogue states, are characterized by their position outside the international order [00:00:34]. They are seen as systematically undermining other countries or subverting global rules, often through exporting revolutionary ideologies, launching wars of aggression, developing weapons of mass destruction, or committing gross human rights abuses [00:00:40]. Syria is presented as a prime example of such a state [00:01:10].
Syria’s Historical Pariah Status
For over half a century, Syria has been seen as a repressive dictatorship and a destabilizing force in the broader Middle East [00:01:16].
Key factors contributing to this status include:
- Repressive Regime: Under Hafez al-Assad, a harsh and repressive regime eliminated opposition and concentrated power in the hands of the Alawite minority [00:05:51].
- Foreign Policy: Syria aligned with the Soviet Union, adopted a fiercely anti-American stance, and maintained an uncompromising hardline position on Israel [00:06:13].
- State Sponsorship of Terrorism: Damascus supported militant Palestinian groups, leading to its designation as a state sponsor of terrorism by the U.S. State Department, a status it still retains [00:06:28].
- Intervention in Lebanon: Syrian troops entered Lebanon during its Civil War, eventually becoming an occupying power [00:06:42].
- Ties with Iran: Syria built close ties with revolutionary Iran, facilitating Tehran’s efforts to undermine Israel and assist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas [00:06:49].
Upon Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad succeeded him [00:07:11]. Hopes for reform quickly faded as he maintained strict domestic control and continued the country’s hardline foreign policy, including opposing Israel and supporting anti-American insurgents in Iraq following the 2003 U.S. invasion [00:07:40].
Impact of the Syrian Civil War
The emergence of the Arab Spring in 2011 significantly worsened Syria’s international standing [00:08:00]. Protests erupted in Syria, met with a brutal crackdown by the Assad regime [00:08:21]. This led to widespread international condemnation from the United States, European Union, and even Arab neighbors [00:08:31]. In November 2011, the Arab League suspended Syria and imposed economic and political sanctions [00:08:46].
By 2012, the uprising escalated into a full-scale civil war [00:08:55]. Despite international efforts to broker peace, the violence continued, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions displaced, primarily to neighboring states like Turkey and Lebanon [00:01:23], [00:02:22].
The conflict saw various international actors involved:
- Opposition Support: Early on, a growing international coalition supported the opposition, with military aid from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and recognition from the United States and other Western states [00:09:05].
- Regime Support: Iran supported Damascus from the beginning [00:09:10]. By 2015, Russia intervened, fundamentally transforming the conflict in Assad’s favor [00:10:00].
- Emergence of Islamist Groups: Groups like Al-Qaeda and Islamic State became significant actors, shifting international focus to containing this new threat [00:09:42].
By 2020, Islamic State was largely defeated, and Syrian government forces controlled two-thirds of the country’s territory [00:10:13]. Although skirmishes continue, an effective stalemate exists, with the war effectively over or in a “frozen conflict” state, and Assad remaining in charge [00:10:24].
Efforts Towards Rehabilitation
The continued presence of Bashar al-Assad has led to increasing calls for re-engagement with Syria, driven by a perceived need to accept the reality on the ground [00:10:44].
Recent diplomatic activities include:
- Gulf States: The Syrian leader has been welcomed by the United Arab Emirates multiple times (since 2022) and paid an official visit to Oman in February 2023 [00:11:01].
- Egypt: Egypt has also moved to mend relations with Damascus [00:11:14].
- Saudi Arabia: Significantly, Saudi Arabia, a strong opponent of Assad at the war’s start, has joined these states [00:11:20]. Reciprocal visits by foreign ministers have occurred, and Riyadh has led calls for Syria’s readmission to the Arab League [00:11:36].
Reasons for Re-engagement
Proponents of re-engagement cite several pragmatic reasons:
- Assad’s Stability: The Assad regime is secure, and engagement is necessary to address ongoing issues [00:11:59].
- Refugee Crisis: The critical question of refugees requires direct communication with Damascus [00:12:08].
- Countering Iranian Influence: Many countries are concerned about Iran’s strengthening influence in the region through its support for Syria [00:12:21].
- Drug Trade: Syria has become a leading producer of amphetamines, feeding a growing drug problem in the Middle East, necessitating engagement to curb this trade [00:12:33].
Opposition to Rehabilitation
Despite these efforts, considerable opposition to Syria’s full rehabilitation remains:
- Qatar’s Stance: Qatar insists that Syria cannot be re-accepted until a final political settlement is reached, displaced persons are addressed, and repression ends [00:12:56].
- Arab League Decision: Arab League foreign ministers recently decided against lifting Syria’s suspension [00:13:13]. However, Saudi Arabia still hopes to invite Assad to the organization’s next summit in Riyadh in May [00:13:23].
- Western Opposition: The United States and the European Union remain vehemently opposed to the Assad regime, with the EU insisting on a political solution to the conflict before normalization of relations [00:13:34].
Ultimately, while moves to open the door to Syria’s readmission into the community of Arab states signal a significant moment for this long-standing pariah state, widespread international acceptance on the world stage remains unlikely in the near future [00:13:50].