From: jameskerlindsay
International relations are increasingly shaped by non-traditional conflicts, with cyber warfare emerging as a significant challenge to peace and security [00:01:21]. One notable incident highlighting the risks of supporting dissident groups in this new era is the series of cyber attacks launched by Iran against Albania in 2022 [00:01:40].
The Iran-Albania Cyber Conflict
In July and September 2022, Iran’s intelligence services orchestrated destructive cyber attacks on Albania’s critical infrastructure [00:00:09]. These attacks caused widespread disruption, impacting government services, medical appointments, school databases, and even border control systems [00:09:30]. In response, Albania severed diplomatic relations with Iran and expelled Iranian diplomats [00:10:33]. The United States condemned the attacks as a “troubling precedent for cyberspace” and imposed sanctions on Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence [00:10:54]. NATO members also condemned the attacks and pledged support for Albania’s cyber defence [00:11:10].
The Underlying Cause: MEK’s Presence in Albania
A conflict between Iran and Albania might seem unlikely given their geographical and cultural differences [00:02:23]. The root of the conflict lies in Albania’s decision to host the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), a significant Iranian dissident group [00:12:34].
Origins of MEK
MEK emerged in the 1960s as part of the opposition to the Shah’s rule in Persia (now Iran), drawing on militant Islam, radical Marxism, and fierce anti-Americanism [00:06:03]. They launched attacks on U.S. citizens living in Iran [00:06:23].
The Iranian Revolution and MEK’s Exile
The Iranian Revolution in 1979 completely transformed the country, introducing a theocratic system and purging opposition [00:04:10]. Relations between MEK and the new regime collapsed, leading the group’s leadership to flee, first to France and then to Iraq [00:06:31]. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraq warmly welcomed MEK, providing them with a large military base, Camp Ashraf, close to the Iranian border [00:06:41]. MEK continued its campaign against Iran even after the war [00:06:52].
Shifting International Status
In the late 1990s, as part of a rapprochement with Iran and with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq seen as a pariah state, Western countries, including the U.S., designated MEK as a terrorist organization [00:07:09]. However, the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq changed MEK’s fortunes again. The Bush Administration saw an opportunity to use MEK to undermine Iran and granted the group formal U.S. protection, despite its terrorist designation [00:07:22].
Relocation to Albania
When the U.S. handed Iraq over to a new administration with ties to Iran, MEK came under attack [00:07:39]. Washington then revoked MEK’s terrorist designation and sought to relocate the group [00:07:50]. Most countries were reluctant to accept thousands of trained insurgents [00:08:00].
Albania, staunchly pro-American due to U.S. support for Kosovo’s independence and its NATO membership since 2009, agreed to accept MEK [00:08:08]. Between 2014 and 2016, several thousand MEK members were airlifted to Albania, where they established a new base near the capital [00:08:19].
From Armed Insurgency to Cyber Warfare
Unable to maintain an armed insurgency against Iran from Albania, MEK shifted its tactics [00:08:32]. They established “troll farms” and became a vanguard of the online campaign against the Iranian government [00:08:40]. This online activity is believed to have sparked Iran’s cyber attacks against Albania [00:08:46]. Planning for these attacks began in early 2021 with infiltration of Albanian government systems, escalating to significant reconnaissance activity in May and June 2022 [00:08:53]. The attacks, including ransomware with anti-MEK messages, were carried out by “Homeland Justice,” identified as an Iranian state cyber actor [00:09:10].
Implications for State Sovereignty and International Relations
The Iranian cyber attack on Albania fits into the long history of states retaliating against other countries that allow their territory to be used by armed insurgencies [00:12:47]. While some argue that Albania is justified in hosting MEK given Iran’s history of sponsoring terrorism, the incident demonstrates that supporting dissident groups carries significant risks, even at a distance [00:13:06]. This incident highlights critical questions about the evolution of conflict in the 21st century and how states respond to such non-traditional threats [00:13:17].