Somaliland struggle for international recognition

From: jameskerlindsay

Somaliland, an unrecognized state in the Horn of Africa, has long sought international acceptance since declaring its independence from Somalia over 30 years ago [00:00:21] [00:01:50]. Despite having built the institutions and structures of a full-fledged country, it has never persuaded another state to formally recognize its independence [00:01:54] [00:02:00].

On January 1, 2024, a landmark agreement was signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which was initially greeted with jubilation in Somaliland [00:00:00] [00:00:17]. The deal was seen as a potential breakthrough that could lead to Somaliland’s full acceptance on the world stage and even UN membership [00:00:27] [00:00:33]. In return for access to the strategically vital Red Sea, landlocked Ethiopia appeared ready to recognize Somaliland as an independent country [00:00:06] [00:00:12].

The Significance of State Recognition

State recognition is central to modern international relations [00:00:53]. It signifies that countries accept one another as nominal equals and affirm their place in the community of sovereign nations [00:00:57]. While some legal scholars argue a state can exist without recognition, formal acceptance is crucial because it:

• Opens the way for diplomatic relations [00:01:14].
• Facilitates trade, security, and general cooperation [00:01:17].
• Bolsters a country’s broader international legitimacy, enabling participation in global and regional organizations like the United Nations [00:01:21] [00:01:27].
• Is vital for a country’s security by helping to safeguard its borders through internationally accepted boundaries [00:01:32] [00:01:37].

Due to these factors, breakaway territories and de facto states globally, including Somaliland, are desperately chasing recognition [00:01:43] [00:01:50].

Somaliland’s Historical Context and Independence

Somaliland is located in the Horn of Africa, covering approximately 180,000 square kilometers (70,000 square miles) [00:02:22] [00:02:24]. It borders Djibouti to its northwest, Ethiopia to its west and south, and the Puntland region of Somalia to its east, with which it has a territorial dispute [00:02:34] [00:02:41] [00:02:46]. Its population is estimated at around 6 million, predominantly ethnic Somali and adhering to Sunni Islam, with most belonging to the Isaak clan [00:02:50] [00:02:54].

The modern history of Somaliland traces back to late 19th-century European imperial expansion, when Britain, France, and Italy established colonial control over Somali-inhabited areas [00:03:07] [00:03:12].

• June 26, 1960: British Somaliland gained independence [00:03:28].
• Five days later: It merged with the newly independent Italian Somaliland to form the Somali Republic [00:03:36].
• Initial welcome: The union was initially welcomed as a step towards uniting all Somali peoples [00:03:43].
• Growing Tensions: Problems soon emerged due to very different histories and clan divisions between the two parts [00:03:55].
• 1961: Northern military officers staged a coup to restore independence, but the South stripped Somaliland of its autonomy [00:04:03].
• October 1969: General Mohamed Siad Barre’s military dictatorship overthrew the democratic government, aggressively suppressing northern separatism [00:04:12] [00:04:28].
• January 1991: Barre was overthrown, and as southern Somalia descended into anarchy, the north seized the opportunity [00:04:35] [00:04:43].
• May 18, 1991: The Republic of Somaliland was proclaimed, reclaiming its independence [00:04:49].

In the subsequent years, Somaliland consolidated its statehood, establishing effective state structures and democratic institutions, and was seen as an oasis of peace and security while Somalia remained embroiled in civil war [00:04:57] [00:05:01]. Despite engaging with British and American officials and African political figures, its efforts to gain full recognition were unsuccessful [00:05:14]. No country wanted to be the first to break ranks and accept its independence, despite arguments that ongoing instability in Somalia and Somaliland’s prior independence merited acceptance [00:05:29].

The African Union’s Recommendation and Subsequent Stalemate

Behind the scenes, there was growing sympathy for Somaliland’s cause [00:05:43]. In 2005, an African Union fact-finding mission to Somaliland recommended recognition, highlighting the country’s progress toward becoming a modern state [00:05:48] [00:05:54].

“Somaliland’s situation was ‘unique and self-justified in African political history’. Therefore, as the report noted, the case should not be linked to the idea of opening a Pandora’s Box.” [00:06:03] [00:06:08]

Despite this positive steer, Western countries remained reluctant, insisting that the initial step had to come from the African Union or a group of African states [00:06:16] [00:06:23]. However, no African consensus emerged, and Somaliland remained unrecognized [00:06:33] [00:06:39].

The 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding

Against this backdrop, news broke on January 1, 2024, that Ethiopia and Somaliland had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in Addis Ababa, overseen by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali [00:06:42] [00:06:50] [00:06:53]. The MoU, a legally non-binding statement of intent, is understood to grant Ethiopia a long-term lease over a Red Sea port facility for commercial and military naval use [00:07:03] [00:07:07].

The controversial aspect was what Somaliland would receive in return. Somaliland President Musa Bihi Abdi stated that under the deal, Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland [00:07:19] [00:07:26].

Analysis of the Agreement’s Impact

Despite the jubilation in Somaliland, there is confusion about the agreement’s legal and political meaning [00:07:36] [00:07:42].

• Recognition requires intent: Under international law, recognition is fundamentally about intent; a state cannot accidentally recognize another [00:07:53] [00:07:58]. In contested cases, a clear statement of recognition is expected [00:08:05].
• No formal recognition yet: There is little sign that Addis Ababa has formally recognized Somaliland [00:08:26]. Ethiopia’s official statement about the agreement made no mention of recognition and was careful not to use the term ‘Republic of Somaliland’ [00:08:33] [00:08:40].
• Foundations for future recognition: While not immediate recognition, the Ethiopian statement appears to lay foundations for possible future recognition, notably by highlighting Somaliland’s independence prior to its union with Italian Somaliland [00:09:03] [00:09:08]. However, prior independence is not internationally seen as justification for a territory to reclaim independence later [00:09:16].

Ethiopia’s strong desire for Red Sea access, highlighted by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in late 2023, is a significant factor working in Somaliland’s favor [00:09:40] [00:09:46]. This desire was so strong that it led to fears Ethiopia might consider war against Eritrea to regain maritime access [00:09:47].

Obstacles to Broader Recognition

The broader implications of Ethiopian recognition present significant challenges for Somaliland’s quest for international recognition.

• Damaged relations with Somalia: Ethiopia’s recognition would damage relations with Somalia, which has already denounced the MoU as null and void, and insisted it will preserve its territorial integrity [00:10:09] [00:10:13] [00:10:17]. Somalia has even suggested considering military options, calling the move an act of aggression [00:10:29].
• Somaliland’s weakened position: Somaliland’s position isn’t as strong as it once was, especially following recent fighting in the disputed eastern area of Las Anod in the Somaliland-Puntland conflict [00:10:49] [00:10:55].
• Ethiopian security commitment: The question arises whether Ethiopia would fully commit to defending Somaliland [00:10:58]. Ethiopian and Somaliland army commanders have met to discuss joint security since the agreement [00:11:05].
• Internal concerns in Somaliland: Many Somalilanders are concerned about the deal, fearing the presence of Ethiopian troops [00:11:19] [00:11:25]. Somaliland’s defense minister resigned over the MoU, arguing Ethiopia remains the country’s number one enemy [00:11:30].
• Transactional nature of recognition: If Ethiopia proceeds with recognition, its tie to the port deal may undermine Somaliland’s cause, as other countries might view it as a transactional move rather than a principled one, deterring them from following suit [00:12:03] [00:12:12] [00:12:18].
• Somalia’s opposition and regional stability: Somalia’s strong opposition could undermine Somaliland’s hopes for broader acceptance [00:12:29]. Mogadishu will undoubtedly try to persuade others that Ethiopian recognition serves only Ethiopian self-interest and would destabilize African borders [00:12:37] [00:12:42].
• Precedent concerns: States are often reluctant to open dangerous new precedents, especially in Africa with its patchwork of colonial borders [00:13:05] [00:13:12].
• Shifting international support: Crucially, there are signs that international actors are stepping back from the possibility of recognition for Somaliland, despite past support [00:13:22] [00:13:27]. The United States has stated its full support for Somalia’s territorial integrity within its 1960 borders [00:13:40] [00:13:45]. Regional actors like Egypt and Turkey have also lined up behind Somalia [00:13:53].

Conclusion

While the memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia was hailed as a significant step forward, Ethiopian recognition is far from guaranteed and, even if it occurs, may do little to advance Somaliland’s recognition on the world stage [00:14:09] [00:14:14] [00:14:22]. After decades of trying to secure international acceptance, the deal may prove to be a less significant breakthrough than Somaliland desperately hoped for [00:14:30] [00:14:36]. The implications of Somaliland’s unrecognized status on regional stability remain a complex and evolving issue.