From: jameskerlindsay
In June 2022, Lithuania announced tight restrictions on goods crossing its territory to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave [00:00:00]. This move, part of a wider package of EU sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine [00:02:01], has sparked fears of a showdown between Russia and the West [00:00:13].
Russian Condemnation and Demands
Moscow was “livid” at Lithuania’s decision, which the governor of Kaliningrad insisted would cover around half of all imports into the region [00:08:29]. The Russian government called the announcement “unprecedented” and a “violation of international law” [00:08:39], demanding that Vilnius immediately rescind its decision [00:08:43].
Threats of Retaliation
Russia has explicitly stated that if Lithuania does not reverse course, it reserves the right to take action to “defend its national interests” [00:08:48]. Open threats have been made against Lithuania [00:08:58]. Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian State Security Council, stated during a visit to Kaliningrad that Russia’s response to such “hostile actions” would have a “serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania” [00:09:01]. The Russian Foreign Ministry has reinforced the message that its retaliation will extend beyond mere diplomatic responses [00:09:39].
Potential Actions Considered
Despite the strong rhetoric, it remains unclear what specific actions Russia could take [00:09:47]. Some potential diplomatic responses, such as expelling Lithuania’s ambassador or rescinding recognition of Lithuania, are seen as largely pointless given Lithuania’s earlier decision to withdraw its ambassador and the minimal real-world impact of such a move [00:09:52].
Unlikely Military Action
There is a fear that Russia’s response could include military action, such as an attempt to create a land corridor to Kaliningrad [00:10:08]. However, this is considered “highly unlikely” [00:10:18]. Any attack on a NATO state would represent a dramatic and dangerous escalation [00:10:20]. While NATO has avoided direct involvement in Ukraine, it has made it clear that a move against a member state would result in swift retaliation [00:10:25].
Likely Responses
Given the significant risks of military escalation, it is more likely that Russia will pursue other avenues for response [00:10:33]. These could include:
- Limited overt diplomatic and economic moves [00:10:38].
- Covert action, such as cyber and hybrid attacks on Lithuania and the EU [00:10:42].
Future Escalation Risks
While the situation might appear relatively calm, there is a risk of increased tension towards the end of the year [00:10:54]. Russia has indicated it will resupply Kaliningrad by sea from St. Petersburg in the meantime [00:11:01]. However, this could become more difficult as winter sets in, potentially making sea transit harder [00:11:04]. If Kaliningrad starts to experience significant strain, Moscow might feel pressured to act more decisively [00:11:10].
Overall Dilemma
The situation has put Russia in a difficult position [00:09:36]. While Russia cannot do much to reinforce its sovereignty over its isolated exclave, the West also cannot afford to be seen undermining that sovereignty too much [00:12:21]. This delicate relationship, already strained over Ukraine, has become even more fragile [00:12:30].