From: jameskerlindsay
Natural resources are widely recognized as a significant source of tension and conflict in modern international relations [00:00:45]. While disputes commonly arise over energy resources like oil and gas, or precious metals and minerals [00:00:53], access to fresh water is another crucial area of competition [00:01:04]. Water is vital for drinking, sanitation, agriculture, and energy production [00:01:09]. As climate change impacts global water supplies, it is expected to become an increasing source of instability [00:01:16].
One of the world’s most critical water access disputes is unfolding in Africa [00:01:25], specifically between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile River [00:00:12].
The Nile River: A Vital Resource
The Nile River, approximately 6,700 kilometers (4,000 miles) long, is Africa’s longest river [00:03:45]. It comprises two main tributaries:
- The White Nile Originates in the Great Lakes region of central Africa, near Rwanda, Kenya, and Tanzania [00:03:58].
- The Blue Nile Starts in Ethiopia and joins the White Nile in Sudan [00:04:09].
For Egypt, the Nile is an indispensable natural resource, providing almost 98% of the country’s drinking water and virtually all water needed for agriculture [00:04:13]. Egypt is highly sensitive to any disruptions to the river’s flow [00:04:29].
Ethiopia also views the Nile as essential. With most of its population relying on farming, it has significant water needs [00:04:36]. Furthermore, as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, Ethiopia faces massive growth in energy demand, with nearly half its population lacking access to electricity [00:04:51]. The Ethiopian government has long recognized the Blue Nile’s potential for hydroelectric power [00:05:05].
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The decision to harness the Blue Nile for hydroelectric power has led to the current tensions [00:05:13]. Historically, Egypt has been concerned about Ethiopia building a dam on the Nile, even threatening war in the 1970s if such a project proceeded [00:05:16]. Former Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak reportedly suggested bombing any new dam on the river [00:05:39].
The situation changed dramatically in 2011 with the Arab Spring and Mubarak’s removal from power [00:05:52]. Seizing the opportunity, Ethiopia proceeded with constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) [00:06:00].
GERD Specifications
The GERD is located less than 30 kilometers from the border with Sudan [00:06:10] and is estimated to cost over 4.5 billion dollars [00:06:15]. Standing almost 150 meters high, its reservoir will contain 74 billion cubic meters of water and cover an area of 1,900 square kilometers (720 square miles) when filled after 2024 [00:06:20]. It is set to become Africa’s largest hydropower project and one of the largest globally [00:06:36].
The dam has become a symbol of Ethiopia’s growing ambitions and a means to lift millions of its citizens out of poverty [00:06:44].
Rising Tensions and Failed Diplomacy
The initiation of the GERD project led to severe tensions with both Sudan and Egypt [00:06:57]. While Sudan initially opposed the project, it later shifted its position, seeing potential for extra electricity [00:07:05]. Egypt, however, adopted a much stronger stance [00:07:19]. While not objecting to Ethiopia’s development goals, Cairo insisted that the project must consider the legitimate interests of other affected countries [00:07:24].
Early attempts at agreement:
- 2015 Declaration of Principles The sides signed a declaration of principles, initially hailed as a significant step towards a comprehensive settlement, but little came from it [00:07:40].
- Growing Accusations By 2016, Ethiopia openly accused Egypt of supporting separatist groups, a claim Egypt vehemently denied [00:07:55].
- Brief Rapprochement In June 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed Ali met amicably with Egyptian leader Abdul Fatah El Sisi in Cairo, expressing willingness to agree on the dam [00:08:11]. Abi Ahmed insisted Ethiopia would never hurt the people of Egypt [00:08:38].
- Renewed Hostility Hopes for a breakthrough were short-lived, and by late 2019, relations had completely broken down, with Abi Ahmed threatening war if Egypt acted against the dam [00:08:45].
- African Union Mediation In July 2020, African Union mediation led to a “major common understanding” [00:09:01]. However, key elements remained unresolved, including water release during severe droughts and mechanisms for handling disagreements, particularly Ethiopia’s rejection of binding arbitration [00:09:15].
Current Situation and Outlook
Since 2020, little further progress has been made [00:09:37]. Egypt has adopted a tougher stance, with its foreign minister stating in 2021 that “more than a hundred million Egyptians face an existential threat” from the dam [00:09:43].
International Concern
The seriousness of the issue has drawn international attention. The UN Security Council discussed the matter in 2020 and 2021, issuing a presidential statement calling for negotiations under African Union auspices [00:10:00].
Despite calls for diplomacy, tensions continue to grow [00:10:25]. Ethiopia has begun filling the dam, a move Egypt condemned to the Security Council in July 2022 [00:10:28]. Egypt has also accused Ethiopia of obstructing talks and has sought to raise the issue in other international forums, such as the African Union Summit in February 2023 [00:10:40].
Egypt repeatedly emphasizes that it cannot tolerate such a fundamental challenge to its interests, arguing that without an agreement, the project threatens international peace and security [00:11:03]. For these reasons, the GERD is widely viewed as one of Africa’s most serious potential flashpoints [00:11:20].
Potential Solutions
A new study based on computer modeling suggests an optimal outcome exists that could address the concerns of all three countries (Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan) [00:11:34]. However, there is little indication that the nations are currently willing to discuss this [00:11:49].
While a full-scale war might seem unlikely, as the dam continues to fill and is expected to be fully operational in 2024, the issue still carries the risk of sparking a conflict between two of Africa’s largest, oldest, and most influential countries [00:11:58].