Relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan

From: jameskerlindsay

In recent months, the Pakistani Taliban has staged a series of high-profile attacks, raising fears that the group may be re-emerging as a significant challenge to Pakistan’s peace and security [00:00:00]. This has led to important questions about the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban regime in neighbouring Afghanistan [00:00:13].

Geographical and Demographic Context

Pakistan and Afghanistan are located in South Asia [00:01:28].

• Pakistan: Approximately 880,000 square kilometres (340,000 square miles), making it the 33rd largest member of the United Nations [00:01:31]. Its population is estimated at around 230 million, ranking fifth in the world [00:02:04].
• Afghanistan: Located to Pakistan’s Northwest, it covers 650,000 square kilometres (250,000 square miles), making it the 40th largest UN member [00:01:41]. Afghanistan has a population of around 40 million inhabitants [00:01:58].

While both countries are predominantly Sunni Muslim, they are ethnically diverse [00:02:11]. A key group is the Pashtuns, who speak a language related to Iranian and are spread across South Afghanistan and West/Northwest Pakistan [00:02:23]. They number around 50 million people [00:02:27]. Pashtuns represent about half of Afghanistan’s inhabitants and make up 15% of Pakistan’s population, making them the second-largest group after the Punjabis [00:02:32].

Historical Context of Relations

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has a long and complex history [00:01:21] [00:02:44].

The Durand Line and British Influence

The modern story of the relationship begins in the 19th century when Britain, having consolidated its position in the Indian subcontinent (including present-day Pakistan), began pushing northward into Afghanistan, which was also a target for Russian imperial expansion [00:02:48].

• 1855: Britain and the Emirates of Afghanistan established friendly relations [00:03:05].
• 1878: Britain launched another invasion, leading to Afghanistan becoming a British protectorate [00:03:13].
• 1893: The border was formally defined along the Durand Line, which divided traditional Pashtun lands [00:03:26].

Afghanistan became a fully independent Kingdom in the 1920s after the protectorate terminated in 1919, and joined the United Nations in 1946 [00:03:37].

Formation of Pakistan and Border Disputes

In 1947, British rule over India ended, leading to partition [00:03:48]. The Muslim areas in the north formed the new Dominion of Pakistan, which became the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in 1956 [00:03:55].

• From the outset, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were strained as Afghanistan questioned the borders of the new Pakistani State [00:04:09].
• Afghanistan argued that the Durand Line was never intended to be an official boundary and called for the Pashtun areas to be handed over to its control [00:04:18].
• This led to significant tensions, with Afghanistan being the only country to vote against Pakistan’s membership of the United Nations [00:04:30].
• Afghanistan also began to support Pashtun separatist movements, leading to diplomatic relations being severed for several years in the early 1960s [00:04:34]. These problems continued even after Afghanistan became a republic in 1973 [00:04:47].

The Soviet Invasion and the Rise of the Afghan Taliban

In December 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, completely transforming the relationship with Pakistan [00:04:55]. As a close Western ally, Pakistan became a vital route for U.S. and international assistance to the mujahideen, the armed Islamic movement fighting Soviet occupation [00:05:09]. This support continued even after the USSR withdrew in 1988 [00:05:21].

After the Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan descended into civil war among mujahideen groups, creating an opening for a new group to emerge [00:05:27].

• Emergence of the Taliban: Drawing on ethnic Pashtuns educated in Pakistan’s religious schools, the Taliban (or Students) gained the attention of Pakistan’s powerful military and intelligence establishment [00:05:41].
• Pakistan’s Support: Seeing an opportunity to gain control over its historically troublesome northern neighbour, Pakistan began to support the new group of fighters, leading to the Taliban’s rapid growth [00:05:52].
• Taliban Rule: The Taliban first emerged in 1994 and seized the Afghan capital, Kabul, by September 1996 [00:06:05]. Once in power, they introduced an extreme form of Islamic rule, curtailed human and women’s rights, destroyed cultural heritage, and made Afghanistan a haven for militant Islamist groups waging war against the West [00:06:13].

Post-9/11 Era and the Rise of the TTP

The 9/11 attacks in 2001, carried out by Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan, led to the US and NATO invasion [00:06:37]. The Taliban was forced from power by the end of the year but remained an active insurgent force [00:06:50].

• Pakistan’s Stance: Although Pakistan had been one of only three countries to recognize the Taliban regime, 9/11 made continued public support impossible [00:07:05]. Pakistan publicly disavowed the Taliban and joined the “War on Terror” but retained close ties with its former allies, providing sanctuary for many of their leaders and fighters [00:07:18].

Emergence of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP)

Under increasing pressure to act against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, Pakistan launched a massive military operation in 2004 in the Pashtun-dominated border area known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) [00:07:39]. This incursion, involving 70,000 troops into an area previously off-limits, led to widespread anger among local leaders and Pashtuns who had fought for the Taliban in Afghanistan [00:07:50].

• 2007: Following a controversial military raid, a new group, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, emerged [00:08:06]. Drawing on various militant groups, the TTP launched an uprising to end Pakistan’s efforts to control the Pashtun tribal areas [00:08:14].

Relationship Between TTP and Afghan Taliban

Questions immediately arose about the exact relationship between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban [00:08:27].

• Shared Ties: They shared close personal and ethnic ties, as well as a broad ideology [00:08:34]. TTP fighters also participated in attacks against NATO forces in Afghanistan [00:08:40].
• Different Agendas: However, the two groups had different objectives [00:08:47]. The TTP aimed to oust Pakistan from the tribal areas, while the Afghan Taliban focused on forcing NATO from Afghanistan [00:08:52]. For the Afghan Taliban, maintaining good relations with Pakistan and its security services was crucial for support [00:09:01].

Escalation and Decline of the TTP Threat

The conflict between Pakistan and the TTP escalated in the following years [00:09:12].

• 2014 Attack: In 2014, after a major crackdown, the TTP attacked an army-run school, killing over 130 children, an act that drew international condemnation [00:09:18].
• Decline: In the aftermath, the TTP threat appeared to decline, weakened by the Pakistan Army’s operations which forced it to relocate to Eastern Pakistan and Afghanistan [00:09:33]. It also suffered defections to other Islamist insurgent groups, including the Islamic State of Khorasan Province [00:09:43].

Afghan Taliban’s Return to Power and Shifting Dynamics

As the United States began drawing down its presence in Afghanistan, the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban gained ground, much to the anger of Pakistan’s Western partners [00:09:55].

• 2018: President Trump publicly accused Pakistan of deceit for sheltering terrorists, leading to the U.S. withholding at least $900 million in security assistance [00:10:08].
• 2020 Peace Deal: Pakistan’s “bet” on the Afghan Taliban seemed to pay off in February 2020 when the Trump Administration signed a landmark peace deal with the Taliban, pledging US troop withdrawal in return for assurances that Afghanistan would not become a base for anti-Western groups [00:10:24].
• 2021 Taliban Victory: In August 2021, the last US and NATO forces retreated, and the Taliban swiftly swept back into Kabul [00:10:42].

Post-Taliban Victory Dynamics

While the world greeted the Taliban’s return with horror, Pakistan saw it as a victory [00:10:54].

• Pakistan’s Intermediary Role: Although Pakistan refused to recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s new government, the Pakistani prime minister indicated his country’s intention to be a link between the Taliban and the wider world [00:11:01].
• Revival of TTP: However, Pakistan’s hopes of becoming a power broker were premature [00:11:17]. The Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan heralded a revival of the TTP, which stepped up its attacks [00:11:22].
• Taliban’s Stance on TTP: Despite Islamabad’s hopes that the Taliban would rein in the TTP, the Taliban showed little willingness to do so, instead organizing talks between the two sides [00:11:31]. A ceasefire agreed upon eventually broke down in November 2022, leading to the latest wave of serious attacks [00:11:42].

Resurfacing Border Issues and Changing Relations

The border issue has also re-emerged as a significant concern [00:11:51].

• Durand Line Dispute: In early 2022, a dispute over a new fence highlighted the unresolved status of the Durand Line [00:11:58]. The Afghan information minister explicitly raised the issue of how the line had divided the Pashto Nation [00:12:04].

Other signs suggest a change in the Pakistan-Taliban relationship:

• The Taliban regime in Kabul appears to have little need or desire for Pakistan’s role as an intermediary on the world stage [00:12:23].
• The Taliban seems to be actively pushing back against Islamabad, for example, by engaging with India, Pakistan’s rival, a relationship that New Delhi is open to developing [00:12:31].

These developments suggest that the Taliban, having regained control in Afghanistan, or at least important elements within it, are happy to push back against Pakistan’s efforts to control them [00:12:46]. Their apparent refusal to crack down on the TTP, coupled with references to the contested border and a divided Pashtun nation, will likely be a source of concern in Pakistan [00:12:58]. Having created or nurtured the Afghan Taliban for its own ends, Pakistan may now face the possibility that the tide is turning [00:13:10]. If the Afghan Taliban embraces its Pakistani offshoot and builds relations with India, it would mark a dramatic reversal of fortunes in relations between Pakistan and the Taliban [00:13:22].