Recent unrest in New Caledonia

From: jameskerlindsay

In May 2024, the Pacific island of New Caledonia experienced widespread rioting, marking the most severe violence in the territory in nearly 40 years [00:00:05], [00:01:34]. The unrest prompted France to dispatch thousands of police reinforcements and President Emmanuel Macron to make an emergency visit to quell tensions [00:00:12], [00:00:16], [00:10:24]. France views New Caledonia as a strategically vital foothold in the Pacific [00:00:22]. The recent clashes have raised significant questions about colonisation, self-determination, and geopolitics [00:01:43].

Status as a Non-Self-Governing Territory

New Caledonia is one of 17 places still on the UN list of non-self-governing territories [00:01:03], meaning it has a recognised right of self-determination potentially leading to independence [00:03:55], [00:04:00]. Two territories, including New Caledonia, remain under French rule [00:01:19].

New Caledonia is located in the South Pacific, approximately 1,300 km (800 miles) off Australia’s east coast [00:01:54], [00:01:59]. Its population stands at around 290,000, composed of three main groups:

• Indigenous Melanesians (Kanaks): 40% [00:02:42], [00:02:48]
• Europeans (mainly French origin): 30% [00:02:52], [00:02:55]
• Other immigrant communities (Polynesians, Indonesians, Vietnamese): 30% [00:02:58], [00:03:04]

Historical Background and Emergence of Pro-Independence Movement

New Caledonia was first visited by Europeans in 1774 by Captain James Cook, who named it after Scotland [00:03:15], [00:03:22]. France seized the territory in 1853 and initially used it as a prison colony [00:03:27], [00:03:35]. After World War II, it was placed on the UN’s list of non-self-governing territories in 1946 [00:03:51].

In 1958, New Caledonia voted to remain under French rule when given the choice under a new French constitution [00:04:06], [00:04:21]. Despite 14 other colonies gaining independence in 1960, New Caledonia remained French [00:04:29], [00:04:35].

The discovery of nickel deposits in the 1960s and the subsequent growth of mining transformed the territory [00:04:40], [00:04:45]. Increased prosperity led to more European immigrants and settlers from neighboring Polynesian states, making the Kanaks an impoverished minority in their own land [00:04:50], [00:05:06], [00:05:09]. This led to the emergence of a pro-independence movement [00:05:10].

Independence Referendums and Agreements

In 1986, the UN General Assembly reinstated New Caledonia on its list of non-self-governing territories [00:05:18], [00:05:21]. An independence referendum in 1987 was boycotted by pro-independence forces due to newly arrived settlers being allowed to vote [00:05:28], [00:05:31], [00:05:34]. This led to sharp tensions, armed Kanak insurgency, and a hostage crisis resulting in nearly 30 deaths [00:05:46], [00:05:52].

Peace talks led to the Matignon Agreement in 1988, which permitted an independence vote 10 years later and committed Paris to helping the Kanak community economically and socially [00:06:00], [00:06:03], [00:06:06], [00:06:11].

In 1998, the Noumea Accord was reached, outlining a plan for up to three future independence referendums between 2018 and 2022 [00:06:18], [00:06:25], [00:06:31]. The accord granted New Caledonia greater autonomy while excluding areas like justice, defense, and foreign affairs [00:06:39], [00:06:44]. It also recognized Kanak identity and created New Caledonian citizenship [00:06:50], [00:06:56].

Three referendums were held:

1. November 4, 2018: Voters rejected statehood by 56% to 44% on an 80% turnout [00:07:03], [00:07:37]. The Kanak community largely favored statehood, while other communities opposed it, fearing the loss of significant subsidies from France [00:07:12], [00:07:16], [00:07:21].
2. October 4, 2020: The margin against independence was tighter, with 53% to 47% voting to remain French, on an 86% turnout [00:07:45], [00:07:51], [00:07:55], [00:07:58].
3. December 11, 2021: The pro-independence forces boycotted this final vote, citing the impact of the Covid pandemic on the Kanak community, which made a fair campaign impossible [00:08:04], [00:08:11], [00:08:14], [00:08:18], [00:08:22]. Paris proceeded with the referendum, resulting in 97% voting against independence on a 44% turnout [00:08:25], [00:08:29]. French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the result, calling France “more beautiful” for the decision [00:08:35], [00:08:39], [00:08:45].

Strategic Importance and Geopolitical Factors

Despite provisions for further consultations after the third referendum, France sought to put the matter to rest for the foreseeable future [00:08:50], [00:08:56], [00:09:01]. This decision was influenced by vital strategic factors, including China’s growing influence in the Pacific and the forming alliance between Britain, the United States, and Australia [00:09:14], [00:09:18], [00:09:22], [00:09:25]. France aims to maintain its independent presence in the region [00:09:29]. Macron underscored this with a high-profile visit to New Caledonia and the wider South Pacific in July 2023 [00:09:34], [00:09:38].

The Spark: Voter Reform and May 2024 Riots

The recent unrest in May 2024 was sparked by new French legislation extending the voter base in New Caledonia to anyone resident in the territory for at least 10 years [00:09:43], [00:09:50]. This decision was seen by Kanaks as a ploy to dilute support for independence, leading to widespread rioting [00:09:55], [00:10:00].

The riots resulted in:

• Six deaths and many injuries [00:10:04]
• Extensive property damage [00:10:07]
• Widespread looting and hundreds of arrests [00:10:07]
• The mayor of Noumea, the capital, claiming her city was “under siege” [00:10:14], [00:10:18]

France responded by dispatching thousands of extra police and banning TikTok, arguing it was used to incite and coordinate protests [00:10:21], [00:10:24], [00:10:28], [00:10:31].

Aftermath and Future Outlook

Order has been largely restored [00:10:39]. Macron’s emergency visit underscored the political seriousness of what he called an “unprecedented insurrection” [00:10:44], [00:10:49]. He pledged to maintain 3,000 forces on the island and promised not to rush voter reforms, but stopped short of abandoning them [00:10:56], [00:11:01], [00:11:06].

These actions are unlikely to quell deep resentment or address Kanak concerns about poverty, inequality, and independence [00:11:11], [00:11:16]. While a major uprising may seem unlikely given the Kanaks are not a majority and France’s resources [00:11:30], [00:11:35], [00:11:40], [00:11:43], maintaining a large security presence will be costly both financially and diplomatically [00:11:48], [00:11:51]. Any new insurgency would highlight continued French colonial rule and feed local resentment [00:11:59], [00:12:04], [00:12:09].

The Azerbaijan Twist

France has suggested that the violence was stirred up by Azerbaijan [00:12:34], [00:12:38], [00:12:44]. This accusation stems from the activities of the Baku Initiative Group, which appears to have direct support from the Azerbaijani government [00:12:50], [00:12:56], [00:12:59]. The group’s stated aim is to support French liberation and anti-colonialist movements in retaliation for French support for Armenia [00:13:03]. While Azerbaijan rejects the accusation, if true, it highlights how hybrid strategies can emerge in unexpected ways and places [00:13:10], [00:13:15], [00:13:21].

The violent clashes have once again raised questions about the longer-term future of this strategically important Pacific territory [00:13:42], [00:13:47], [00:13:52].