From: jameskerlindsay
Mongolia has become a growing focus of attention for Washington and European capitals in 2023 and 2024 [00:00:04]. This attention is seen by many as a concerted Western effort to strengthen relations with the country, which is strategically important [00:00:13].
Mongolia is considered a “pivot state” in contemporary international relations, meaning it is a critical focal point of competition between regional or international powers [00:00:37]. This status can be attributed to various factors, including its location, economic resources, or broader political and religious influence [00:00:46]. The foreign policy decisions of pivot states can have profound effects; for example, aligning with one neighbor can alter a regional balance of power, or remaining neutral can establish them as a buffer or intermediary [00:01:02]. Such states can gain greater significance than their size, military strength, or economic standing might suggest [00:01:22].
Geographical and Economic Context
Mongolia is situated on the boundary between Central and East Asia [00:01:48]. It is the world’s 18th largest country, with an area of approximately 1.56 million square kilometers [00:01:53]. As a landlocked state, it shares borders with Russia to the north and China to the south, east, and west [00:02:01]. With a population of around 3.4 million, it is one of the most sparsely inhabited countries globally [00:02:08]. Mining is a vital part of its economy, contributing about a quarter of its gross domestic product and 90% of its exports [00:02:17]. Mongolia is an important source of coal, copper, gold, tin, and tungsten [00:02:14].
Historical Ties with Russia and China
Mongolia’s history is notably associated with the Mongolian Empire, which emerged in the 13th century under Genghis Khan, creating the largest contiguous land empire in human history [00:02:36]. However, this empire fragmented by the end of the 14th century [00:03:01].
In 1635, China invaded southern and eastern (Inner) Mongolia, extending control over northern (Outer) Mongolia by the 18th century as it faced threats from the expanding Russian Empire [00:03:10]. A 1727 treaty between China and Russia solidified Chinese control over Mongolia for nearly 200 years [00:03:25].
Mongolia declared independence in 1911 following the overthrow of China’s Qing dynasty [00:03:34]. Although China briefly regained control, Mongolian revolutionaries, supported by the newly formed Soviet Union, expelled them in 1921 [00:03:47]. The Mongolian People’s Republic was proclaimed in 1924 [00:03:58]. The USSR, despite its role in establishing Mongolia, initially viewed it as part of China [00:04:04]. However, the USSR steadily expanded its influence, eventually turning Mongolia into a Soviet puppet state, highlighted by the 1936 mutual assistance protocol allowing Soviet troop deployment [00:04:24].
In 1945, at the close of World War II, the Soviet Union finally recognized Mongolia’s independence [00:04:43]. China’s Nationalist government also accepted Mongolia’s statehood through the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance [00:04:53]. The People’s Republic of China maintained this agreement, establishing diplomatic relations with Mongolia on October 16, 1949 [00:05:07].
During the Cold War, Mongolia remained one of Moscow’s closest allies [00:05:19]. While relations with China were initially good, the Sino-Soviet split in the late 1950s and early 1960s caused a collapse in ties, especially after Soviet troops were again stationed in Mongolia in 1966 [00:05:35]. Mongolia joined Comecon, the socialist economic body, but was denied entry into the Warsaw Pact due to Eastern European concerns about antagonizing China [00:05:54]. Soviet influence deeply permeated all sectors of Mongolian society, with Russian becoming widely spoken [00:06:24].
Post-Cold War Shifts and the Third Neighbor Policy
The late 1980s marked a turning point after nearly 70 years of Soviet control [00:06:35]. Following widespread protests, multi-party democracy was introduced in 1990, leading to the abandonment of the communist system and the dissolution of the Mongolian People’s Republic in 1992 [00:06:48].
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR profoundly impacted Mongolia’s foreign policy [00:07:03]. The loss of Soviet support and trade caused a severe economic downturn [00:07:12]. Relations with the new Russian Federation soured when Moscow demanded repayment for all aid received since 1946 [00:07:20].
As a result, Mongolia was compelled to forge new international ties [00:07:33]. Washington became a key target after diplomatic relations were established in 1987 [00:07:38]. A partnership and cooperation agreement was signed with the European Union in 1993, and relationships with Japan and South Korea were also established [00:07:46].
The most significant transformation occurred with China [00:07:58]. Despite a tense history and lingering mistrust, relations rapidly improved, leading to a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1994 [00:08:02]. This resulted in a massive expansion of trade and investment, particularly in the mining sector, making China Mongolia’s most important economic partner within a decade [00:08:14].
By the turn of the millennium, relations with Russia also improved dramatically, with many Mongolians still viewing Russia positively [00:08:41]. The debt issue was settled in 2004, and political, economic, and military cooperation steadily strengthened, culminating in a Treaty of Friendship and Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2019 [00:09:02].
While close working relations with its two immediate neighbors were recognized as necessary, fears grew that Mongolia was becoming overly reliant on them, especially China [00:09:19]. This led Mongolia to strengthen its Third Neighbor Policy [00:09:42]. While maintaining good relations with Russia and China, Mongolia deepened ties with many other countries, including key Western states [00:09:48]. Wide-ranging cooperation with the United States led to a strategic partnership in 2019 [00:09:59]. Relationships were also extended with the EU, Japan, India, and Turkey [00:10:07].
Impact of the Ukraine War on Mongolia’s Diplomatic Stance
The start of the Ukraine war in early 2022 altered Mongolia’s comfortable position [00:10:15]. Initially, Mongolia adopted a cautious, neutral approach to the conflict, abstaining from key UN votes condemning the invasion due to concerns about undermining relations with Moscow and relying on Russian energy [00:10:28].
Despite continued close links and regular bilateral meetings with Moscow, subtle shifts emerged as the war progressed [00:10:51]. In late 2022, Mongolia’s president issued a call for peace at the UN General Assembly, seen by many as a nuanced change [00:11:02].
Since early 2023, there has been a significant increase in contacts with Western countries [00:11:14]. High-level contacts with the United States have continued, and European countries have shown growing interest [00:11:23].
- In May 2023, Emmanuel Macron became the first French president to visit Mongolia, a visit explicitly aimed at loosening Russia’s control over its neighbors and opening strategic alternatives [00:11:32].
- In February 2024, Germany became the first EU member to sign a strategic partnership with Mongolia [00:11:47].
- The British Foreign Secretary visited in April 2024, laying the groundwork for a future partnership agreement [00:11:56].
Reasons for this increased Western engagement are attributed to several factors [00:12:09]:
- Economic factors: The war in Ukraine has negatively impacted the Mongolian economy [00:12:12].
- Domestic splits: While older Mongolians generally remain positive towards Russia, many younger people prefer the West over Russia and China and support Ukraine [00:12:24].
- Growing nervousness: There is concern about the increasingly close ties between Beijing and Moscow since the Ukraine war began, as being “squeezed” between two powerful neighbors is different from pivoting between them [00:12:37].
For Western states, this engagement offers the chance to weaken one of Moscow’s closest historical partnerships and gain greater access to Mongolia’s valuable mining sector [00:12:54].
Current Foreign Policy Outlook
Mongolia is not decisively shifting away from Russia and China towards the West [00:13:17]. Its geography prevents it from abandoning its neighbors, and a concerted alignment with the West could lead to disastrous consequences if Beijing and Moscow unite to isolate the country [00:13:27].
Instead, Mongolia appears to be pursuing a foreign policy designed to protect its economic, political, diplomatic, and strategic autonomy while maintaining close ties with Moscow and Beijing [00:13:46]. As its two powerful neighbors grow closer, and Mongolia finds itself increasingly squeezed, it is pivoting more towards its Third Neighbor Policy, engaging with “the rest of the world, including the West” [00:14:00].