From: jameskerlindsay
On 7 October 2023, Hamas militants launched a significant attack against Israel from Gaza, leading to Israel’s declaration of war on the group within hours [00:00:00]. This marked the deadliest Palestinian assault on Israel in 50 years [00:00:08]. The conflict has raised crucial questions about the political, diplomatic, military, and strategic consequences of a return to full-scale armed conflict [00:00:32].
Gaza’s Geography and Historical Context
Gaza is located at the eastern end of the Mediterranean, sharing a 60 km border with Israel to its north and east, and a 12 km border with Egypt to its south [00:02:22]. It covers approximately 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), with a population of around 2.3 million, making it one of the most densely populated areas globally [00:02:34].
The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has a long and complex history [00:02:54]. After World War II, the UN voted to partition British-controlled Palestine into two states: one for Jewish people and one for Arab Palestinians [00:03:04]. This was rejected by Palestinians and neighboring Arab states, leading to an attack on Israel after its declaration of independence on 14 May 1948 [00:03:22]. Following their defeat, Palestinians were left with the West Bank (under Jordanian control) and Gaza (under Egyptian military authority) [00:03:47].
In 1967, Israel won another war, capturing the West Bank and Gaza [00:04:16]. The UN Security Council called for Israel to withdraw from these occupied territories [00:04:43]. In 1993, the Oslo Accords led to the establishment of a Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Gaza as a prelude to an independent state [00:05:49]. However, progress stalled, and in 2005, Israel unilaterally withdrew its forces and dismantled its settlements in Gaza [00:06:44].
Hamas Control
The Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, formed in Gaza in 1987 as an offshoot of the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt, and backed by Iran, began launching attacks on Israeli targets [00:07:25]. In January 2006, Hamas won parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza [00:07:47]. By June 2007, Hamas had seized control of Gaza [00:08:07]. In the aftermath, Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza, heavily restricting land, sea, and air access, a measure also enforced by Egypt due to fears of Islamist extremism [00:08:22]. Hamas continued to launch rocket attacks, leading to Israeli reprisals and a disastrous effect on Gaza’s population [00:08:49].
Israel’s Response and Military Challenges
On 7 October 2023, Hamas militants broke through the fence surrounding Gaza, launching indiscriminate attacks and killing over 1,300, wounding almost 3,000, and taking up to 150 Israelis hostage [00:09:23]. This was the most significant one-day loss of life in Israel’s history [00:09:58]. In response, Israel declared war on Hamas [00:10:07].
Gaza has since been placed under “complete siege,” with access to water, food, and electricity blocked [00:10:22]. These actions have been warned by many as potentially constituting crimes under international law [00:10:29]. A full-scale Israeli ground invasion appears imminent [00:10:43].
Limitations of Military Action
While Israel’s desire to retaliate is understandable [00:10:50]:
- Air campaign limitations: An air campaign cannot defeat Hamas, which has an underground tunnel network, and disproportionately harms civilians [00:11:00]. Even when targeting Hamas buildings, these are often apartment blocks, hospitals, and schools [00:11:13].
- Ground invasion challenges: A serious attempt to defeat Hamas requires a ground invasion, which involves huge costs and dangers, including urban warfare [00:11:26]. It would necessitate a continued presence to prevent Hamas from regrouping [00:11:39].
- Costs of occupation: Israel would face military, economic, political, and diplomatic costs of another prolonged occupation [00:11:50].
- Humanitarian consequences: Maintaining a strict lockdown indefinitely would have horrific human consequences, leading to claims that Israel is attempting to force out or destroy the population [00:11:58]. This could reignite broader international opposition [00:12:16].
Risk of Wider Escalation
Beyond Gaza, there is a significant danger of further escalation [00:12:21]:
- West Bank tensions: Signs of heightened tensions and growing confrontations between Palestinians and Israeli settlers have already been observed in the West Bank [00:12:27].
- Lebanon: Fears exist that the violence could spread to neighboring Lebanon, where Hezbollah, another Iranian-backed militant group, has been preparing for an attack on Israel [00:12:37].
- Iran: Most seriously, there are concerns it could lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran [00:12:58]. While direct evidence of Tehran planning the attack is lacking, Iran’s financial and military support for Hamas was crucial [00:13:06]. Iran has vowed to strike back if Israel retaliates against it [00:13:24].
The Need for a Political Resolution
The view that Israel can only decisively win this war by reaching a final, comprehensive settlement with the Palestinians has been encouraged [00:13:30]. The conflict, after almost eight decades, needs to be resolved rather than merely managed [00:13:41]. The UN highlighted the need to re-establish a “political horizon” for a settlement [00:13:47].
However, significant obstacles remain, especially when negotiating under heightened tensions [00:13:55]:
- Viable Palestinian state: Creating a Palestinian state is necessary but not sufficient; it needs to be economically and politically viable [00:14:04]. This requires territorial agreements and immense external aid and investment [00:14:30].
- Spoiling groups: Even if Israel and Palestine agree to coexist, groups like Hamas will remain as spoilers, requiring significant security support [00:14:42].
Ultimately, a monumental effort by the wider international community is required [00:14:49]. The question remains whether the recent horrific events can finally galvanize the world to act, or if global attention will wane again, leaving the problem to fester until the next conflict [00:14:56].