From: jameskerlindsay
Lebanon is currently on the brink of a complete and catastrophic collapse [00:00:00]. The World Bank suggests it may become one of the worst economic crises of the past two centuries [00:00:04]. Even the UN Secretary-General has called for urgent action to avert disaster [00:00:10].
Understanding State Collapse
Failed states are a significant phenomenon in international relations [00:00:29]. Many serious sources of instability, including conflict, terrorism, organised crime, and poverty, are associated with state collapse [00:00:33]. While often envisioned as countries destroyed by war or serious civil unrest, a catastrophic failure can sometimes be caused by other problems, such as economic collapse [00:00:49]. Lebanon stands as an interesting and important example of this on the international stage [00:00:56].
Lebanon’s Current Economic Meltdown
Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered a financial meltdown [00:01:01]. The country’s economy has shrunk by almost 40 percent [00:01:04], its currency has collapsed, and inflation and unemployment have skyrocketed [00:01:07]. It is estimated that over 80 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line [00:01:11]. The situation is so severe that there are real worries the country may be on the verge of complete failure [00:01:17].
Geographic and Demographic Context
Lebanon is located at the far eastern end of the Mediterranean, bordered by Syria to its north and east, and Israel to its south [00:01:26]. With an area of 10,500 square kilometres (4,000 square miles), it is the 161st largest of the 193 United Nations member states [00:01:34].
According to the most recent data available:
- Approximately 65 percent of the population is Muslim, roughly equally divided between Sunni and Shia [00:01:43].
- Christians, once the majority, now account for around 34 percent of the population [00:01:53].
- The Maronites, affiliated with the Catholic Church, are the largest Christian group [00:02:00]. This complex religious situation forms the backdrop for the country’s problems [00:02:06].
Historical Context of Lebanon’s Political Structure
Lebanon’s history stretches back thousands of years as a major trading hub of the ancient world [00:02:12]. It came under Muslim Arab and Crusader rule before being conquered by the Ottoman Empire in the 16th century [00:02:17].
French Mandate and Formation of Greater Lebanon
The modern story of Lebanon truly begins during the First World War [00:02:26]. As plans were made to divide the Ottoman Middle East, France was granted control of Syria, which then included present-day Lebanon [00:02:31]. This was confirmed in 1920 when France was awarded a League of Nations mandate over Syria and Lebanon [00:02:44]. At this point, Lebanon was separated from Syria, a decision that led to lingering resentment among many in Syria who considered the area part of Greater Syria [00:02:51].
Crucially, the new state of Greater Lebanon extended beyond the predominantly Christian Mount Lebanon area [00:03:01]. It incorporated Muslim areas to the north and south, and the Shia Muslim-dominated Bekaa Valley to the east [00:03:04]. In 1926, a new constitution was introduced, and it became the Republic of Lebanon, though still formally under French rule [00:03:14].
Independence and the National Pact
Lebanon declared independence in 1943, during the Second World War [00:03:23]. At this time, the country’s main religious groups established an unwritten understanding known as the National Pact [00:03:30]. This pact aimed to preserve the religious balance of power:
- The president would always be a Maronite Christian [00:03:36].
- The prime minister a Sunni Muslim [00:03:42].
- The speaker of the parliament a Shia Muslim [00:03:45]. Additionally, parliament was divided on a 6:5 ratio between Christians and Muslims [00:03:48].
Following the Second World War, Lebanon became a founder member of the United Nations and grew increasingly prosperous [00:03:54]. Despite few natural resources, it used its traditional trading links and European ties to establish itself as an important commercial and cultural hub [00:04:02].
Early Instability and the Arab-Israeli Conflict
The first major problems emerged in 1958 [00:04:13]. Against a backdrop of growing pan-Arabism, many Sunni Muslims called for the country to join the newly created United Arab Republic (the union between Syria and Egypt) [00:04:18]. Following protests, the Lebanese president sought US intervention to preserve the country’s independence [00:04:29].
While things settled temporarily, Lebanon became increasingly affected by the Arab-Israeli conflict [00:04:36]. After the 1967 Six-Day War, tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees fled to Lebanon, joining the 100,000 or so who had arrived in 1948 following the partition of Palestine and the establishment of Israel [00:04:44]. This influx shifted the religious balance and led Palestinian groups, including the PLO (which based itself in Lebanon after being forced out of Jordan in 1971), to launch attacks against Israel from Lebanon’s southern border [00:05:01].
Civil War and Taif Agreement
This escalating tension culminated in 1975, when fighting broke out between Palestinians and Christians, leading the country into a brutal and complex civil war [00:05:16]. The following year, Syria intervened at the request of the Christian president to fight Palestinian militias [00:05:26]. In 1978, Israel invaded southern Lebanon to curb Palestinian attacks [00:05:33]. The war dramatically escalated in 1982 when Israel launched a new campaign, battling the Syrian army and pushing into Beirut [00:05:38]. Fierce fighting persisted among the country’s numerous militias [00:05:49].
The conflict finally ended in 1989 after 15 years of fighting, under the terms of the National Reconciliation Accord, better known as the Taif Agreement [00:05:54]. This accord stipulated the withdrawal of Syrian and Israeli forces, the disbandment of militias, and the introduction of important constitutional changes [00:06:00].
Post-Civil War and Persistent Challenges
In the period after the civil war, Lebanon seemed on the path to recovery [00:06:13]. Under Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the country began to rebuild [00:06:18]. However, serious problems remained [00:06:24]:
- Continued Israeli presence in the south [00:06:26].
- Continued presence of Iranian-backed Hezbollah [00:06:30].
- Syria’s continued control over the country [00:06:33].
While Israel eventually withdrew in May 2000, Syria’s presence remained strong until Rafik Hariri was assassinated by a car bomb on February 14, 2005 [00:06:36]. Massive demonstrations followed, with people blaming Syria for the murder, leading Damascus to withdraw its troops two months later [00:06:47]. Despite the withdrawal, Syria remained a decisive factor in Lebanon through its links to Hezbollah [00:06:55].
Impact of Syrian Civil War
Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, profoundly affected Lebanon [00:07:01]. Eventually, over a million Syrians fled to Lebanon [00:07:05]. With almost a quarter of its population made up of refugees—the highest proportion in the world—this put an intolerable strain on Lebanon, which was already facing growing financial pressure [00:07:12]. This impact of Syrian refugees on Lebanon significantly exacerbated existing vulnerabilities.
Onset and Worsening of the Economic Crisis
Matters came to a head in mid-2019 [00:07:24]. Having accumulated massive debts during reconstruction, the country could no longer repay its loans [00:07:28]. When the government attempted to impose new taxes to cover shortfalls, protests erupted [00:07:34]. Foreign exchange inflows dried up due to growing instability, banks became unable to pay depositors, and a financial crisis ensued [00:07:39].
The situation dramatically worsened in the following months [00:07:48]. In addition to the strain from the Covid pandemic, Lebanon was shaken by an enormous explosion at the Beirut Port in August 2020 [00:07:53]. This blast killed over 200 people, injured 6,000, left 300,000 homeless, cost the country an estimated 8 to 15 billion dollars, and left 70,000 people jobless [00:08:01].
Government Incapacity and Corruption
The country’s government has proven wholly incapable of addressing the crisis [00:08:15]. A new cabinet formed in September 2021 has not met for months, and efforts to resolve the situation have been hampered by deep-rooted corruption and vested interests [00:08:20].
The cumulative effects of these issues have been catastrophic [00:08:32]. The World Bank stated that Lebanon’s financial and economic crisis is likely to rank in the top 10, possibly top three, most severe episodes globally since the mid-19th century [00:08:35]. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, visited the country in December 2021, calling for urgent action to solve the crisis [00:08:48].
Why the Crisis Matters
Humanitarian Catastrophe
Lebanon faces a humanitarian catastrophe [00:09:05]. Widespread poverty means people cannot afford basic necessities like food and fuel [00:09:08]. The state is increasingly struggling to provide essential services for its citizens [00:09:14], leading to hospitals lacking provisions, limited public services, costly transport, and streets full of rubbish [00:09:19].
Civil Disorder and Potential for Conflict
The severe economic collapse has led to increasing desperation among the population [00:09:28]. Mass protests have occurred, crime has risen dramatically, and there are signs of growing tensions across society [00:09:37]. This naturally raises concerns about civil disorder and the prospect of a return to conflict [00:09:44]. Worrying signals have already emerged, such as six people killed in Shia-Christian gunfights in Beirut in October 2021 [00:09:48].
The Hezbollah Factor
The crisis is further complicated by Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon [00:09:58]. The group, designated a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, and many Arab States, has gained ground in the country [00:10:01]. It has established its own “state within a state,” becoming one of the most heavily armed non-state actors globally [00:10:10]. Hezbollah holds seats in parliament, has ministers in government, and now exerts control over many Lebanese institutions [00:10:15].
Some argue that Hezbollah may attempt to take over the country completely [00:10:25]. If this were to happen, the implications would be enormous [00:10:30]. Beyond internal effects, there would be a very real danger of a major confrontation with Israel [00:10:36].
Conclusion
State failure is an important subject in international relations [00:10:41]. While often seen as the result of conflict or civil unrest, it can also be caused by factors like catastrophic economic collapse, as Lebanon exemplifies [00:10:45]. Complete state collapse in Lebanon, while a humanitarian disaster in its own right, carries worrying wider consequences [00:10:58]. There are genuine fears it could lead to a new conflict within the country, or even provide an opportunity for Hezbollah to seize control, raising the chances of a war with Israel [00:11:06]. The fact that both the World Bank and the United Nations have raised the alert about Lebanon indicates the extreme seriousness of the situation [00:11:17].