From: jameskerlindsay
The long-standing territorial dispute over the southern Kuril Islands between Russia and Japan has escalated recently, drawing renewed attention amidst Russia’s war in Ukraine [00:00:04]. Senior Japanese officials have reaffirmed their country’s claim to these islands, raising concerns about a potential new conflict on Russia’s borders [00:00:08].
Unresolved Conflict from World War II
Almost eight decades after the end of the Second World War, Russia and Japan have not signed a formal peace treaty [00:01:10]. This is primarily due to their ongoing disagreement regarding the southern Kuril Islands [00:01:16]. While conflicts typically end with a peace treaty, some conclude with only a ceasefire or a partial settlement, leaving major issues unresolved [00:00:41].
Geography and Strategic Importance
The Kuril Islands are an archipelago of 56 main volcanic islands and many islets, stretching approximately 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) between the northeast of Japan’s Hokkaido island and Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula [00:02:27]. The islands are strategically important and possess significant mineral and energy reserves [00:01:21]. At their closest uncontested point, Russia’s Sakhalin Island is just 43 kilometers (28 miles) from Japan’s Hokkaido [00:02:09].
Historical Background of the Dispute
Early Interactions and Treaties
The dispute’s roots trace back to the 19th century when Russia expanded into East Asia, leading to direct confrontation with Japan [00:02:46].
- Treaty of Shimoda (1855): This agreement stipulated shared control of Sakhalin Island (Russia taking the north, Japan the south) and divided the Kuril Islands. Russia gained control of islands north of Urup, while Japan secured sovereignty over the three main southern islands—Iturup, Kunashir, and Shikotan—along with the Habomai Islets [00:03:02].
- Treaty of St. Petersburg (1875): Two decades later, a new agreement saw Russia take full control of Sakhalin in exchange for ceding the entire Kuril Island chain to Japan [00:03:28].
Russo-Japanese War (1904)
Rising tensions culminated in the Russo-Japanese War in 1904 [00:03:42]. Japan’s victory marked an unprecedented defeat for a European power, forcing Moscow to cede much of its Far Eastern territory, including the southern half of Sakhalin Island, to Japan [00:03:50]. This conflict had significant regional and international geopolitical implications, paving the way for Japan’s occupation of Korea and Chinese Manchuria, and potentially contributing to the Russian Revolution [00:04:02].
World War II and Soviet Occupation
The rivalry between Japan and the Soviet Union intensified, leading to an undeclared war in 1939 [00:04:17]. Though the USSR won, both countries signed a neutrality pact in April 1941, which allowed Japan to focus on the United States later that year [00:04:28].
In early 1945, after the defeat of Nazi Germany, pressure mounted on the Soviet Union to join the war in the Far East [00:04:44]. Following the atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan on August 8, invading the southern half of Sakhalin Island [00:04:53]. Despite Japan’s surrender on August 15, Soviet forces continued to take the Kuril Islands, gaining full control by early September 1945 [00:05:12]. The Soviet Union quickly solidified its control, expelling the Japanese inhabitants [00:05:27].
Post-War Developments and the 1956 Peace Declaration
By the mid-1950s, relations began to shift [00:05:31]. On October 19, 1956, Moscow and Tokyo signed a landmark peace declaration, formally ending the state of war and re-establishing diplomatic relations [00:05:36]. They agreed to resolve future disputes peacefully, drop compensation claims, and negotiate trade and fishing agreements [00:05:47].
Crucially, they could not sign a formal peace treaty due to disagreements over the Kuril Islands [00:05:56]. The declaration stated that Shikotan and the Habomai Islets would be returned to Japan upon a final peace treaty [00:06:03]. However, Japan insisted on sovereignty over all its ‘Northern Territories,’ referring to the four areas originally ceded in 1855 (Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan, and Habomai Islets) [00:06:12]. Despite initial positive reception, efforts to settle the northern boundary proved unsuccessful for decades, and no final peace treaty was signed by the end of the Cold War [00:06:23].
Post-Cold War Era and Recent Escalation
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Japan urged the newly independent Russian Federation to formally return the islands [00:06:38]. Moscow, however, was reluctant to move on the issue [00:06:49].
Russia’s Stance and Actions
Russia’s reasons for reluctance included:
- Concerns that Japan’s close alliance with the United States would lead to the militarization of the islands if returned [00:06:53].
- The significant economic value of the islands, including extensive fishing waters and potential oil and gas reserves [00:07:00].
In 2010, then-President Dmitry Medvedev became the first Russian leader to visit the islands, underscoring Russia’s desire to retain them [00:07:09]. While there seemed to be a shift towards progress in 2016, with President Vladimir Putin and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe discussing economic cooperation and acknowledging the Kuril Islands question remained open [00:07:19], hopes for a settlement were short-lived.
In 2020, Russia introduced a constitutional change explicitly outlawing any moves to relinquish territory [00:07:51]. Concurrently, Russia steadily increased its military presence on the islands, installing sophisticated anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles [00:07:59]. In July 2021, the Russian Prime Minister visited Iturup, an island directly claimed by Japan, with Russian politicians making it clear that Moscow considered the question closed [00:08:07].
Recent Escalation in 2022
The dispute intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 [00:08:22]:
- On February 28, 2022, a Japanese Foreign Ministry director stated that Russia was in occupation of the Northern Territories [00:08:25].
- Russia responded by asserting the islands had been legally transferred as “punishment for Japan’s aggression and its alliance with Nazi Germany” [00:08:40].
- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi openly declared the islands an integral part of Japan, a clear departure from previous diplomatic language [00:08:50].
- The United States affirmed its support for Japan’s claims, a stance held since the 1950s [00:09:04].
- Putin signed an amendment granting businesses on the islands up to 20 years of exemption from corporate, property, and land taxes, a decision condemned by Tokyo [00:09:12].
- Japan’s participation in Western sanctions against Russia led Moscow to add Japan to its list of ‘unfriendly countries’ [00:09:26]. This prompted speculation of reprisals, such as banning Japanese fishing vessels from the waters around the islands [00:09:36].
- Tokyo has also increased its monitoring of Russian military activity in the region [00:09:44].
Prospects for Conflict and Settlement
While the current developments raise questions about potential conflict, it remains highly unlikely [00:09:51]. Japan is not expected to invade the islands, despite Russia’s military preoccupation in Ukraine, given Russia’s status as a nuclear power. Taking such action would risk a major escalation with Moscow [00:10:04].
For now, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is expected to make the dispute over the Kuril Islands even harder to resolve, with Russia already suspending peace talks with Japan on the issue [00:10:31]. However, there may be a future opportunity for negotiations as Russia will likely need to rebuild economic ties with Western countries, including Japan, after its current economic isolation [00:10:46]. The ultimate resolution will depend significantly on developments within Russia following the end of the war in Ukraine [00:11:10].
More than 75 years after World War II, Japan and Russia still lack a full and final peace treaty, and the war in Europe may yet provide an unexpected opportunity to settle this long-standing issue [00:11:17].