From: jameskerlindsay
The Islamic insurgency in Mozambique is considered one of the most serious threats to peace and security in Africa [00:00:16]. Since 2017, an uprising by a group locally known as Al-Shabab (“The Youth”), which later pledged allegiance to Islamic State, has been waging a brutal insurgency in the north of the country, particularly in Cabo Delgado province [00:56:00]. This conflict has prompted significant international involvement from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the European Union (EU) [01:05:00].
Background on Mozambique
Mozambique is located in southeast Africa, with a 2,500-kilometre coastline along the Indian Ocean [01:21:00]. It spans 800,000 square kilometers, making it the 35th largest of the 193 United Nations member states [01:30:00]. The population is around 30 million, ranking it 46th globally [01:40:00].
Most of the population belongs to groups speaking Bantu languages [01:45:00]. About half the population is Christian (Catholic and various Protestant denominations), while around 20% are Muslim, though some estimates suggest the figure is higher [01:56:00]. Mozambique is one of the 57 members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and its only member from Southern Africa [02:11:00].
The country’s history of an Islamic presence dates back to the 10th century with the arrival of Muslim traders [02:24:00]. The most significant historical development came 500 years later with the arrival of the Portuguese, who established a trading presence that eventually led to the territory becoming the formal colony of Portuguese East Africa [02:36:00].
Portugal resisted decolonization after World War II, leading to the emergence of the Marxist guerrilla movement, the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO), in the early 1960s to fight Portuguese rule [02:49:00]. Mozambique gained independence on June 25, 1975, following a left-wing military coup in Portugal [03:26:00]. Just two years later, the country entered a brutal civil war (1977-1992) between the FRELIMO government (backed by the Soviet Union and Cuba) and the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), which was backed by South Africa [03:46:00]. A UN-backed peace deal in 1992 led to multi-party elections [04:08:00]. Mozambique experienced occasional tensions, including a renewed RENAMO insurgency between 2013 and 2019 [04:13:00].
Economic Context
While predominantly agricultural, Mozambique’s economy grew due to its natural resources, including deposits of iron ore, gold, nickel, platinum, bauxite, and significant natural gas deposits off the northern coast [04:25:00]. Despite steady economic growth over the past 30 years, Mozambique remains one of the poorest countries in the world [04:46:00].
Origins of the Insurgency
The insurgency is centered in Cabo Delgado, the country’s northernmost province, which has a population of about 2.3 million and is home to many Mozambican Muslims [05:00:00]. It is also the poorest of the country’s provinces, despite the natural gas discoveries [05:12:00]. This combination of underdevelopment and resentment over the lack of benefit from natural wealth has provided fertile ground for recruitment to the extremist cause [05:17:00].
The first reports of tensions emerged in October 2017 when militants launched an assault on government buildings [05:29:00]. The group, known locally as Al-Shabab (a name also used by an apparently unrelated militant movement in Somalia), conducted numerous brutal attacks on government and civilian targets, often involving mass killings [05:37:00]. In April 2018, the group pledged allegiance to Islamic State, which formally acknowledged it as an affiliate in August of the same year [05:58:00]. However, some observers suggest the insurgency remains largely locally organized, with direct Islamic State involvement potentially overplayed [06:07:00].
Escalation and Impact
Initially, Mozambique attempted to fight the insurgency on its own, even hiring private organizations for assistance, but the situation continued to deteriorate amid accusations of atrocities by all sides [06:20:00]. By early 2021, over 2,500 people had been killed in more than 700 recorded attacks [06:41:00]. Between 500,000 and 800,000 people (a quarter to a third of Cabo Delgado’s population) were displaced, and the UN estimated that 1.3 million people required humanitarian assistance [06:52:00].
In March 2021, the US State Department designated “ISIS Mozambique” as a terrorist organization [07:16:00]. A major turning point occurred in late March 2021 when Al-Shabab launched a significant attack on Palma, a port town and a hub for natural gas production [07:25:00]. The attack destroyed much of the town and targeted a multi-billion dollar natural gas plant being built by the French energy company Total, leading to deaths of local and foreign contractors [07:36:00]. Although government forces eventually retook Palma, Total suspended its operations in Mozambique weeks later [07:52:00].
International Response
The attack on Palma highlighted the growing threat to regional peace and security [08:02:00]. The 16-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) held a summit and, following an official request from Mozambique, announced in June 2021 that it would send a military force, the Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique (SAMIM), to combat the insurgency [08:14:00].
Soon after, the European Union (EU) authorized a 300-person military training mission, intended to last two years, providing counter-terrorism training, civilian protection, and international humanitarian law training [08:41:00]. Notably, half of this force is composed of Portuguese troops and is led by a Portuguese officer, reflecting the colonial history [08:57:00]. Rwanda also sent 1,000 troops to Mozambique, who are already engaged in operations [09:09:00].
The presence of a large number of external troops indicates the seriousness with which the insurgency is being taken [09:26:00].
Underlying Issues
While the link to Islamic State is a significant concern, marking a foray into Southern Africa, the conflict is rooted in familiar themes of marginalization, poverty, and disputes over resource revenues [10:07:00]. The Muslim population in Cabo Delgado, experiencing underdevelopment and lacking benefit from natural wealth, has found an outlet for anger and frustration through the extremist cause [10:25:00].
Though a growing military response is underway, any long-term solution will need to address these underlying economic aspects [10:39:00]. The irony is that the insurgency has closed off one of the best hopes for addressing the situation: the exploitation of natural gas [10:48:00]. Mozambique is thus caught in a vicious cycle of underdevelopment breeding violence, which in turn perpetuates underdevelopment [10:58:00].