From: jameskerlindsay
The 2020 Armenia and Azerbaijan war was a brief but bloody conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh [00:00:02]. A year after the conflict, the effects on Armenian society are profound, despite appearances of normalcy [00:08:00]. War is inherently traumatic for a nation, especially one on the losing end [00:00:42].
Societal Response to Defeat
The war is an “extremely sensitive and difficult subject” for Armenia [00:04:46]. It has challenged a long-held sense of invulnerability established over decades of Armenian control over Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas [00:04:52].
Armenians reconcile the country’s defeat in specific ways:
- Anger at Turkey: There is significant anger directed at Turkey for its support of Azerbaijan, not only in terms of equipment but also military leadership and guidance [00:05:08]. Many believe Turkey “directed the war” [00:05:13].
- Perception of an Unfair Fight: A deeply held view is that Azerbaijan did not engage in a “fair fight” [00:05:16]. Many argue the outcome would have been different without Turkish and, to some extent, Israeli technical support [00:05:25]. The idea of an unfair fight is frequently raised [00:05:33].
Perceptions of External Actors
There are complex perceptions regarding the roles of other international actors:
- Disillusionment with EU and US: There is a clear sense of disillusionment about the lack of action from the European Union and the United States [00:05:58]. Beyond expecting intervention based on humanitarian grounds, there’s a geopolitical and even “civilizational” aspect to this [00:06:05]. Many Armenians believe their country prevents a “Turkic arc” from Europe to Central Asia, and therefore, Armenia’s vital position should be understood and fully supported [00:06:22].
- Complex Picture with Russia: While Armenia maintains a close relationship with Moscow and many still consider Russia a key ally with strong influence [00:06:39], there is also a “real sense of anger and suspicion about Russia’s role in the war” [00:06:42]. Russia only intervened at the last moment, after most Armenian-held territory had been lost [00:06:48]. Trust in Russia often stems from a lack of other viable options, rather than genuine faith [00:07:02].
Societal Appearance vs. Reality
On the surface, particularly from central Yerevan, there is little to indicate that Armenia is a country recovering from a major war [00:07:38]. The city appears “remarkably normal,” bustling with good restaurants, high-end shops, and nice cars, making it hard to believe it experienced such a serious conflict a year prior [00:07:54].
However, “beneath the surface, it’s clear that the war has obviously had a profound effect” [00:08:00]. As noted, “no family was untouched” [00:08:06]. Many volunteered to fight, thousands were killed, and many are still missing [00:08:10]. Occasional stark reminders of the conflict, such as plaques dedicated to fallen soldiers, exist [00:08:18].
Future Outlook and Ongoing Trauma
There is a pervasive sense of “unfinished business” [00:08:32]:
- Prisoners of War: Armenian soldiers are still held prisoner by Azerbaijan, with allegations of torture and executions [00:08:40]. This remains an extremely sensitive issue [00:08:44].
- Ongoing Instability: Many feel the 2020 conflict has not truly ended [00:08:47], with ongoing skirmishes along the new ceasefire line, including a heavy bout of fighting in November 2021 [00:08:54]. Full-scale fighting is feared to erupt again [00:08:58].
Outwardly, Armenians have not given up on Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) [00:09:06]. They view the 2020 war as a setback, but believe the land will be retaken, asserting that it “is, and should be, a part of Armenia” [00:09:22]. Just as Azerbaijanis spoke of their territory being held by Armenians, Armenians now speak similarly of their territory held by Azerbaijanis [00:09:36].
This implies that the conflict has not ended in the minds of Armenians [00:09:36]. A compromise involving territorial autonomy currently seems unacceptable to either side [00:09:49]. From the Armenian perspective, it is “far too soon to talk about any longer-term settlement, let alone reconciliation, between Armenia and Azerbaijan” [00:10:01].
Ultimately, while life in Yerevan appears remarkably untouched on the surface, beneath this apparent normality, Armenia is described as a country “still in the state of denial about what happened” [00:11:35].