From: jameskerlindsay
In January 2024, significant unrest erupted in the Russian Republic of Bashkortostan, as thousands participated in violent protests [00:00:00]. This growing discontent is linked to the war in Ukraine and its disproportionate impact on Russia’s ethnic minorities [00:00:09]. Many observers question if this could signal the beginning of greater internal pressures that might lead to the country’s fragmentation [00:00:14].
Background: War and Speculation of Russian Collapse
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 quickly prompted widespread speculation that the war could backfire on Moscow and result in the collapse of the Russian Federation [00:00:41]. As the war progressed and more troops were drawn into the conflict, it was argued that some of Russia’s restive regions might seize the opportunity to rebel and seek independence [00:00:52]. However, these anticipated internal pressures did not materialize immediately, with Russia’s outer regions remaining under Moscow’s control [00:01:06].
Bashkortostan: A Case Study of Growing Tensions
The large-scale rioting in Bashkortostan has reignited questions about whether the ongoing war in Ukraine is indeed fueling separatism within the country [00:01:19].
Pre-War Grievances
Bashkortostan, Russia’s sixth-largest republic by area and first in population with four million inhabitants [00:02:37], has a complex history and significant mineral wealth [00:03:21]. Despite signing an agreement with Moscow in 1994 that granted it extensive autonomy and control over natural resources [00:05:52], the situation has become increasingly strained [00:06:07]. Reasons for this include:
- Centralization of Power: A steady rollback of the republic’s autonomy, with power increasingly centralized in Moscow [00:06:15].
- Economic Exploitation and Environmental Damage: Growing unhappiness about the region’s economic exploitation, tied to substantial environmental damage [00:06:25].
- Interethnic Tensions: Increased tensions, particularly between the Bashkirs and Tatars [00:06:38].
- Cultural and Social Movements: Resurgence in support for increased language and cultural rights, and the emergence of social and ecological movements like “Bashkort,” which was banned for extremism in 2020 [00:06:47].
War’s Aggravating Factors
The war in Ukraine has further exacerbated these tensions, as Russia’s outlying regions and ethnic communities have been disproportionately affected [00:07:04]. This impact is felt both in terms of casualties among their populations and reduced government spending, as state funds are diverted to the war effort [00:07:10].
The Fail Alsynov Case and Protests
The deep-rooted disenchantment in Bashkortostan escalated into wider protests following the arrest of activist Fail Alsynov [00:07:21]. Alsynov, a former leader of the banned group Bashkort, was arrested for inciting racial hatred while protesting gold mining [00:07:28]. He had previously raised concerns about the disproportionate casualties from Bashkortostan and other poorer regions in the war in Ukraine, openly calling the mobilization a “genocide” of the Bashkir people [00:07:38].
On January 17, 2024, Alsynov was sentenced to four years in a penal colony, sparking outrage among thousands of his supporters [00:08:02]. Protests quickly led to clashes with riot police, who used tear gas and batons [00:08:29]. Subsequent demonstrations erupted, including a major one in the capital, Ufa [00:08:43]. The situation was further inflamed by claims of police brutality and the death of a protester in police custody [00:08:54]. These demonstrations represent one of the most serious outbreaks of ethnic tensions in recent years and the largest protest faced by Russian authorities since the start of the Ukraine war [00:09:04].
Kremlin’s Response
The protests visibly rattled the local leadership [00:09:17]. Bashkortostan’s leader, Radiy Khabirov, claimed outside forces were behind the protests, and the local government moved to suppress further unrest [00:09:20]. Warnings have been issued that demonstrators could face charges of mass rioting, carrying a 15-year jail term [00:09:30]. Social media pages promoting demonstrations have been taken offline, and a local singer is reportedly under investigation for calling on people to join protests [00:09:46].
Despite the seriousness of the protests, Moscow initially appeared to distance itself from the issue [00:10:12]. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov disputed that it amounted to mass unrest, calling the events “individual instances” and a “local problem” [00:10:19].
Wider Implications
While the protests in Bashkortostan involved several thousand demonstrators, a small fraction of the population, and have since quietened [00:11:16], they highlight a broader potential for unrest [00:11:31]. Russia’s considerable ethnic diversity is coupled with widespread discontent driven by discrimination, economic deprivation, and increasing anger over the disproportionate losses faced by minorities in the war in Ukraine [00:10:46].
The rioting in Bashkortostan, the most serious outbreak of ethnic rioting in Russia since the start of the Ukraine war [00:11:53], demonstrates how the conflict in Ukraine has the potential to catalyze deeper ethnic resentment based on local grievances [00:12:03]. In this sense, these protests could be a very worrying development for the Kremlin [00:12:14].