From: jameskerlindsay
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous and resource-rich country, currently faces a profound crisis marked by daily violence from numerous sources, raising serious doubts about the government’s ability to manage the situation and prompting questions about its stability [00:00:00].
Geography and Demographics
The Federal Republic of Nigeria is located in West Africa, with the Gulf of Guinea to its south [00:01:57]. Its neighbours include Niger to the north, Chad and Cameroon to the east, and Benin to the west [00:02:05]. Covering 930,000 square kilometres (360,000 square miles), Nigeria is the 31st largest of the 193 United Nations member states [00:02:12]. Since 1996, it has been divided into 36 states and a federal capital territory, Abuja [00:02:22].
With a population of almost 220 million, Nigeria is home to more than 250 ethno-linguistic groups [00:02:30]. The largest groups are:
- Hausa and Fulani in the north [00:02:39]
- Yoruba in the southwest [00:02:42]
- Igbo in the southeast [00:02:44]
Religiously, the country is primarily split between Sunni Muslims in the north and largely Protestant Christians in the south-central and southeast areas, with mixed populations in the centre and southwest [00:02:47].
Economy and Resources
Nigeria is endowed with significant natural resources, including oil and natural gas [00:03:01]. Its GDP per capita is approximately US$2,100 [00:03:06].
Historical Overview
Nigeria boasts a long and culturally rich history, including the Benin Empire, one of West Africa’s oldest civilisations [00:03:10].
Colonial History
Modern Nigeria’s story begins in the late 19th century when Britain established two colonial territories: the Northern and Southern Nigerian Protectorates [00:03:19]. In 1914, these were merged to form the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria [00:03:30]. As Britain prepared for decolonisation, the country was reorganised in 1954 into a federation of three parts:
- The Hausa and Fulani-dominated Northern Region [00:03:44]
- The Yoruba-dominated Western Region [00:03:47]
- The Igbo-dominated Eastern Region [00:03:49]
Independence and the Biafran War
British rule ended on 1 October 1960, when Nigeria became independent as the Federation of Nigeria [00:03:52].
The first major problems emerged in early 1966 following disputed elections [00:04:00]. Southern army officers attempted to overthrow the government, assassinating senior political figures, including the premier of the Northern Region [00:04:08]. This led to reprisal attacks on Igbo people living in the north, causing over a million to flee to the southeast [00:04:16]. In May 1967, the region unilaterally declared independence, forming the Republic of Biafra [00:04:19].
The resulting civil war became a humanitarian catastrophe, leaving up to 3 million dead from fighting and starvation [00:04:29]. The war lasted until January 1970, when government forces defeated Biafran forces [00:04:36].
Post-War Challenges and Oil Industry Discontent
In the years following the war, Nigeria seemingly began to recover, largely fueled by the rapid growth of the country’s oil industry in the Niger Delta [00:04:42]. However, by the 1990s, deep discontent arose as local communities saw little wealth from oil production and suffered devastating environmental damage [00:04:55]. The military government cracked down harshly on dissent, drawing international attention when leading activist Ken Saro-Wiwa was executed in 1995 despite worldwide calls for mercy [00:05:09]. Despite efforts to tackle the uprising, including ceasefires and amnesty, many problems and the insurgency continue today [00:05:23].
Resurgence of Biafran Tensions
The Delta conflict has also sparked a revival of tensions in the southeast [00:05:35]. Beginning in the late 1990s, Biafran campaigners relaunched efforts to establish an independent homeland, claiming a part of the oil-producing region [00:05:41]. Built on decades of lasting resentment and perceived discrimination following the civil war, this movement has gained prominence over the past seven to eight years due to the high-profile activities of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) [00:05:50]. IPOB’s charismatic leader, Nnamdi Kanu, is currently on trial in Nigeria for terrorism and separatism [00:06:01]. This has led to widespread protests and clashes with police in the southeast [00:06:11].
Current Security Challenges
Over the past decade, tensions in the south have been largely overshadowed by the deteriorating situation in the north [00:06:17].
Violent Islamism in the Northeast
Violent Islamism, growing across West Africa, has brought terror to Nigeria’s northeast [00:06:26]. Starting around 2010 with Boko Haram, the group gained international attention in 2014 by kidnapping almost 300 schoolgirls, many of whom remain missing [00:06:33]. Although Boko Haram has been increasingly overshadowed by its rival, ISWAP (Islamic State in West Africa Province), the Islamist insurgency in the northeast has resulted in over 40,000 deaths and displaced more than 300,000 people [00:06:47].
Herder-Farmer Conflict in the Northwest
A dangerous threat has emerged in the northwest [00:07:05]. Climate change has led to greater desertification across the Sahel, causing Muslim Fulani cattle herders to increasingly press south into lands held by settled farmers [00:07:10]. This “Herder-Farmer conflict,” combining elements of religious and ethnic tensions, has led to over 10,000 deaths and displaced tens of thousands more [00:07:22]. Regarded as Nigeria’s single biggest security threat, these well-armed herder bandits are driving tensions elsewhere, including the southeast and southwest [00:07:34]. The encroachment of herders led IPOB to establish an armed wing, the Eastern Security Network, which has subsequently clashed with security forces, further destabilising the southeast [00:07:47].
Deterioration in the Southwest
Historically more peaceful, the southwest is also experiencing change [00:08:03]. While secretive ultra-violent cult gangs have long terrorised Lagos, the region now faces violent encroachment by Fulani herders [00:08:14]. There are also signs of growing separatist sentiment, though it has not yet led to an organised armed insurgency [00:08:38]. A brutal attack on a Catholic church in Owo on 6 June 2022, which killed 50 worshipers, highlighted the region’s vulnerability [00:00:08][00:08:47]. The government blamed ISWAP for the killings, indicating a dangerous new direction if confirmed, or at minimum, a dangerous development in the religiously mixed southwest [00:08:56].
Widespread Insecurity and Government Response
Nigeria now faces insecurity and instability in every part of the country [00:09:17]. This includes:
- Long-standing separatist challenges in the southeast [00:09:25]
- Continuing low-level insurgency in the Delta [00:09:29]
- Islamist violence in the northeast, potentially spreading to the southwest [00:09:32]
- Herder bandits from the northwest terrorising the centre and pushing into the southeast and southwest [00:09:39]
- Localised ethno-religious tensions [00:09:54]
- Emergence of armed vigilante groups, many of whom are turning to crime [00:10:02]
Authorities claim to address the problem with increased military and police presence [00:10:07]. However, critics argue this is insufficient, with police often confined to cities and exacerbating problems through widespread allegations of human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial killings [00:10:16]. The painfully slow criminal justice system and the widespread use of amnesties contribute to a sense of impunity and feed resentment [00:10:39].
Underlying Causes of Violence
More worryingly, the government is accused of failing to address the long-term underlying causes of violence [00:10:55]. Nigeria is frequently cited as one of the most corrupt countries globally, meaning oil revenues are not spent on local communities, infrastructure, or economic diversification [00:11:04].
Other major contributing issues include:
- Youth Unemployment: Exceeds 40 percent [00:11:26]
- Education: Nigeria has more out-of-school children than any other country [00:11:29]
- Climate Change: Contributing to resource conflicts [00:11:35]
- Arms Proliferation: Widespread availability of guns and small arms [00:11:40]
Future Challenges and Outlook
The problems are likely to worsen as the government faces declining revenues due to the global shift away from fossil fuels [00:11:46]. The sheer scope of violence is causing deep concern about the country’s direction [00:11:56]. Over the past decade, more than 80,000 people have been killed and hundreds of thousands displaced [00:12:04].
There is growing anxiety about the government’s ability to manage the problems, leading many to openly question whether Nigeria is not merely a failing state, but a failed one [00:12:13]. On the most recent Fragile States Index, Nigeria ranked 12th out of 179 countries [00:12:26]. While hopes are pinned on the country’s 2023 presidential elections as a chance to tackle the problems, there are concerns that the security situation could prevent the vote from taking place [00:12:43].
Despite the prospect of state collapse seeming unlikely, Nigeria continues to face an astounding, if not unique, range of security challenges [00:13:01]. Given the lack of obvious solutions, this will increasingly call into question the country’s future [00:13:12].