From: jameskerlindsay
In January 2020, Britain officially left the European Union [00:00:00]. While initially seen by many as an opportunity for independent global standing, the promised benefits of the Leave campaign have largely not materialized [00:00:04]. Instead, there’s growing evidence of severe economic damage, leading to public opinion shifting against the decision and an increasing openness to rejoining the EU [00:00:15].
Britain’s Deep European Roots
Britain’s relationship with Europe is founded on a long history [00:01:41]. The British people have been shaped by numerous waves of immigration from the continent, including the Celts, Romans, Saxons, Vikings, Danes, Normans, and Huguenots [00:01:46]. Over centuries, Britain has been intricately linked to the continent politically, economically, militarily, and socially [00:01:56].
Post-War European Integration and British Ambivalence
The modern story of this relationship begins on July 23, 1952 [00:02:05]. As Europe recovered from the Second World War, initial steps were taken to redefine the relationship between France and Germany [00:02:10]. Recognizing that economic interdependence could prevent future conflicts, the European Coal and Steel Community was established [00:02:18]. This was followed by the Treaty of Rome on March 25, 1957, which created the European Economic Community (EEC) [00:02:27]. Built on the principle of an “ever-closer union,” the EEC eventually evolved into the European Union [00:02:35].
From the outset, Britain showed ambivalence towards this European integration [00:02:44]. While acknowledging the benefits of cooperation and being a founder member of the Council of Europe (the continent’s leading human rights body), Britain maintained distance from the EC [00:02:48]. Instead, it focused on rebuilding post-war ties with its Empire [00:02:58].
Joining the EEC
By the early 1960s, Britain’s global standing had changed [00:03:02]. With the Cold War and decolonization underway, it had lost its preeminent international position and was falling behind Western Europe economically [00:03:08]. In 1961, Britain made the significant decision to apply to join the EEC [00:03:20]. However, this application, and a subsequent one, were rejected by French President Charles de Gaulle, who believed Britain would undermine the Community [00:03:26]. French leadership changed by the early 1970s, and on January 1, 1973, the UK finally joined, alongside Ireland and Denmark [00:03:37].
A Complicated Membership
From the beginning, the relationship was complex [00:03:49]. Unlike its continental European counterparts, Britain’s primary motivation for joining was economic benefits, not political integration [00:03:52]. Although membership was overwhelmingly endorsed in a 1975 referendum, tensions grew by the 1980s [00:04:02]. While Britain played a leading role in forming the Single Market, a landmark project for open trade across Europe, a funding dispute led to the UK securing an unpopular rebate on its contributions [00:04:10]. The Conservative government under Margaret Thatcher also became increasingly opposed to calls for greater political integration [00:04:21].
Despite a seemingly pro-European stance by the new Labour government under Tony Blair in the late 1990s, little was done to address deep-rooted hostility towards Europe in the media or promote a positive message [00:04:30]. The government also opted out of major European projects, such as the single currency (the euro) and Schengen, which aimed to create a border-free Europe [00:04:46].
The Road to Brexit
When the Conservatives returned to power in 2010, the European debate was initially sidelined [00:04:57]. However, a significant portion of the party remained staunchly against Britain’s EU membership [00:05:03]. This came to a head in 2014 following a disastrous result in European parliamentary elections, where the anti-European UK Independence Party (UKIP) gained significant support by campaigning on European immigration [00:05:12]. In response, Prime Minister David Cameron pledged a referendum on membership if the Conservatives won the next election [00:05:25].
After a surprise victory in 2015, and negotiations to amend the terms of Britain’s membership (including a formal commitment that Britain would never be bound by an “ever-closer union” or required to join the euro), the country entered a highly divisive debate over EU membership [00:05:35].
The Referendum Campaign
The Remain campaign focused on the economic benefits of EU membership, warning of disastrous consequences if Britain left [00:05:57]. The Leave campaign, fighting a controversial campaign, dismissed these warnings and instead focused on issues of sovereignty and limiting immigration [00:06:02]. It argued that Brexit, as the departure became known, would restore the country’s independence and allow more money for public services [00:06:11].
On June 23, 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52 to 48 percent [00:06:23].
Brexit and Its Aftermath
Immediately after the vote, the country was plunged into another debate about the form Brexit would take [00:06:33]. While many advocated for Britain to remain part of the Single Market, the political unacceptability of allowing European workers continued free movement into Britain led the government to pursue a “hard Brexit” [00:06:39]. This involved cutting ties to all parts and institutions of the European Union [00:06:51].
After triggering Article 50, the EU treaty clause allowing a country to leave, negotiations took several years and were marked by considerable acrimony [00:06:59]. The process also created severe problems in Northern Ireland, where EU membership had underpinned the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended a long-standing conflict [00:07:10]. Despite these challenges, a deal was reached by the end of 2019, and the United Kingdom formally left the European Union on January 31, 2020 [00:07:20].
Consequences of Brexit
Since leaving, it has become clear that Brexit has not delivered on the Leave campaign’s promises [00:07:32]. Britain has experienced a significant economic downturn [00:07:37]. While some attribute the worst effects to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit has led to a four percent drop in British gross domestic product [00:07:42]. Additionally, a shortage of EU workers has contributed to rising inflation, leading to interest rate increases and impacting the cost of living and mortgage payments [00:07:58].
New rules have made trade extremely difficult for many sectors, particularly agriculture and fishing, which had largely favored leaving the EU [00:08:10]. Although the government has pursued new trade deals with other countries, these have offered minimal benefits and do not offset the cost of Brexit to trade with the European Union, the UK’s largest market [00:08:20].
Brexit has also had wider adverse effects. British citizens now face greater difficulty living and working across the continent, with many countries requiring special skills or independent financial means [00:08:34]. Few of the promised domestic benefits, such as increased healthcare spending, have materialized [00:08:50]. This has resulted in growing public discontent, with recent polls indicating a clear majority now views Brexit as a mistake [00:08:58].
Could Britain Rejoin the EU?
With growing dissatisfaction, questions have arisen about reversing Brexit [00:09:07]. However, Britain cannot simply reverse its departure; it would need to rejoin the EU, which involves a defined two-part process [00:09:16].
- Procedural Element: The UK must realign itself fully with the EU’s body of laws, known as the acquis communautaire [00:09:30]. This is considered the easier part, given Britain’s long past membership and relatively few divergences since leaving [00:09:41].
- Political Decision: The more challenging aspect will be the political decision by existing member states on whether to accept Britain back [00:09:52]. While many senior European figures have expressed openness to Britain rejoining, leaders would need assurance of a permanent commitment to membership to avoid another exit process [00:10:00].
This commitment would require several factors:
- Unequivocal Public Commitment: The British people must unequivocally desire membership, potentially shown by an overwhelming victory for a pro-membership party in a general election or a significant margin in a referendum [00:10:18].
- Acceptance of Core EU Projects: In the past, Britain opted out of fundamental elements like the euro and Schengen [00:10:40]. To rejoin, the UK would need to sign up to both in principle, even if not immediately joining [00:10:48]. This would be a difficult pill for many in Britain, even among those favoring rejoining, due to strong commitment to the pound and the political sensitivity of borders [00:10:59].
Timeline for Rejoining
Even if public opinion strongly supports rejoining, it is not likely to happen anytime soon [00:11:09]. Neither of the main political parties (Labour or Conservatives) will include rejoining in their manifestos for the next general election, due by January 2025 [00:11:19]. The opposition Labour Party, currently projected to win, explicitly states its policy is to make Brexit work [00:11:32]. Assuming a full five-year parliamentary term, rejoining would realistically not be on the political agenda until 2030 at the earliest [00:11:41].
Talks for rejoining, even with minimal divergence, would likely take at least two to three years to complete, followed by up to two more years for ratification by member states [00:11:52]. Under the most optimistic scenario, Britain would not rejoin before 2035 [00:12:06].
Before then, steps can be taken, such as joining EU programs and initiatives, most notably the Single Market [00:12:13]. While this would boost trade and the economy, it would also require a renewed commitment to freedom of movement, which may still be too politically sensitive for either party [00:12:23]. Ultimately, Britain is unlikely to be ready, able, or willing to rejoin the European Union for a considerable time [00:12:37].