From: jameskerlindsay
In April 2023, fierce fighting erupted in Sudan, raising fears that the country had been plunged into yet another civil war [00:00:00]. Unlike previous conflicts, this one is centered on competing factions within the country’s military [00:00:16]. Sudan has a history of long-running conflicts that have profoundly shaped and militarized its society, often leading the army or paramilitary bodies to become significant players and even take over politics and decision-making [00:00:43].
Geography and Demographics
The Republic of Sudan is located in Northeast Africa [00:01:34]. It is the world’s 15th largest country and the third largest state in Africa, covering 1.8 million square kilometers (720,000 square miles) [00:01:37].
It shares borders with:
- Egypt to the north [00:01:47]
- The Red Sea and Eritrea to the east [00:01:50]
- Ethiopia and South Sudan to the south [00:01:53]
- The Central African Republic, Chad, and Libya to the west [00:01:56]
Sudan has an estimated population of 46 million [00:02:00]. While 97% of Sudanese adhere to Sunni Islam, the country is ethnically mixed [00:02:04]. Approximately 70% are Arab, and Sudan is a member of the Arab League, but other groups include the Fur, Baja, and Nubians [00:02:10].
Historical Background
Sudan has an exceptionally long history [00:02:20].
- Ancient Period: Partially conquered by ancient Egypt, the area converted to Christianity in the 6th century [00:02:23]. Muslim Arab forces attempted to push into the region in the 7th century but were initially repelled [00:02:29]. By the 17th century, Arab and Islamic encroachment grew [00:02:38].
- 19th Century and Colonial Rule: At the start of the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire, with an Egyptian Army, established control over the area [00:02:43]. In 1881, a local Islamic leader launched an uprising [00:02:53]. Fearing its spread into Egypt and potential destabilization of Anglo-French colonial power, Britain sent troops, bringing Sudan under British rule while Egypt formally remained the sovereign power [00:02:58].
The North-South Divide
Under colonial rule, Sudan was effectively two very different territories [00:03:16]. The northern provinces, comprising about three-quarters of the population, were overwhelmingly Arab and Muslim [00:03:22]. The southern provinces consisted of various sub-Saharan African groups practicing local religions and Christianity [00:03:26].
Post-Independence Conflicts
First Sudanese Civil War (1955-1972)
Following World War II and the onset of decolonization, Sudan’s future became uncertain [00:03:38]. Southern leaders sought a federal arrangement within an independent, united Sudan, or their own independence [00:03:44]. Growing tensions escalated in July 1955 with rioting and a mutiny by Southern soldiers [00:03:54]. Britain hastily withdrew, and on January 1, 1956, Sudan became independent but was immediately plunged into civil war [00:04:05]. A peace agreement was reached in 1972, granting the South extensive autonomy [00:04:16].
Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005)
The 1972 peace lasted only a decade [00:04:25]. Following the discovery of oil along the North-South boundary and growing Islamic sentiment in the North, President Jafaar Nimeiry (who took power in a 1969 military coup) broke the agreement [00:04:28]. In 1983, he declared Sudan a unitary Islamic state under Sharia law, sparking the Second Sudanese Civil War [00:04:43]. The South was better prepared this time, with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), supported by neighboring Ethiopia, quickly gaining control of Southern rural areas [00:04:50]. Nimeiry was overthrown in 1985 [00:05:02]. A civilian government failed to make headway, and in 1989, it was overthrown by a military coup led by Omar al-Bashir [00:05:14]. Despite the fall of the Ethiopian military dictatorship in 1991, which deprived the SPLA of crucial support [00:05:23], South Sudanese forces held on [00:05:37]. By the turn of the millennium, 20 years of fighting had left over 2 million dead from war, disease, and hunger [00:05:44]. The conflict became increasingly costly for the North financially, politically, and diplomatically [00:05:50].
Darfur Conflict (2003 onwards)
A significant new uprising emerged in the western region of Darfur, sparked by growing resentment against Arab domination [00:06:08]. The military launched a brutal campaign, supported by a local Arab militia called the Janjaweed [00:06:15]. This led to accusations of genocide [00:06:25].
Peace Agreements and South Sudan’s Independence
Confronted with two major uprisings and growing international condemnation, al-Bashir agreed to US-led talks with the South [00:06:31]. In January 2005, a peace deal was reached, envisioning self-government followed by an independence referendum [00:06:40]. Six years later, in July 2011, South Sudan became a sovereign state after over half a century of war [00:06:50].
Efforts were also made to stop the fighting in Darfur [00:06:59]. In 2007, the UN and African Union established a joint peacekeeping force [00:07:04]. Tensions continued, and in 2009, al-Bashir was indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide [00:07:12].
Emergence of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Steps were taken to rein in the Janjaweed [00:07:23]. In 2013, the militia became the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and was nominally placed under the command of the armed forces, though with a separate leadership structure [00:07:28]. This transformation is crucial for understanding the current situation in Sudan [00:07:39].
Recent Political Turmoil and the Current Conflict
While South Sudan’s independence ended a costly war, it led to other problems for the Sudanese government, which lost crucial oil revenues from the South [00:07:45]. This loss, combined with reduced spending, fueled widespread anger against the ruling regime [00:07:54].
- 2018-2019 Protests and Al-Bashir’s Ouster: In 2018, mass street protests erupted [00:07:59]. In April 2019, the military stepped in, forcing Omar al-Bashir to resign and placing him under arrest after 30 years in power [00:08:04].
- Military’s Continued Role: Hopes for democratic civilian rule were short-lived as the Armed Forces made it clear they would remain in charge [00:08:15]. This sparked further protests, which were violently suppressed [00:08:25].
- Transitional Sovereignty Council: Following international pressure, the military agreed to share power under a joint Transitional Sovereignty Council [00:08:31]. This council included the Armed Forces Commander, General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy, General Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo (commander of the RSF) [00:08:39]. However, many Sudanese felt their hopes for democratic government were thwarted, leading to new protests [00:08:52].
- 2021 Military Coup: On October 25, 2021, the military leadership staged another coup [00:09:05]. The Sovereignty Council was dissolved, the prime minister arrested, and power reverted to Burhan and Dagalo [00:09:08]. The takeover was widely condemned, with calls for a return to civilian rule [00:09:16].
- Escalating Power Struggle: By December 2022, intensive international efforts aimed at a two-year transitional arrangement [00:09:25]. However, a final agreement in April 2023 was thwarted at the last minute by a growing power struggle within the military [00:09:35].
- Although the military leadership seemed united in late 2021, the relationship between General al-Burhan and General Dagalo, who knew each other from the Darfur days, became increasingly strained [00:09:46].
- Factors included policy differences, personal ambitions, and broader social factors, such as traditional Sudanese elites rejecting Dagalo (a provincial Darfurian) taking control [00:10:01].
- Allegations also emerged that Dagalo had built considerable wealth by appropriating gold mines in Darfur [00:10:22].
- Geopolitical factors also played a part, with Burhan seen as closer to the United States and supported by Egypt, while Dagalo had close links to Moscow [00:10:30].
- Outbreak of Fighting: By early 2023, tensions were open [00:10:44]. Dagalo, with clear political ambitions, publicly campaigned for support, calling the 2021 counter-coup a mistake and painting Burhan as a radical Islamist [00:10:51]. This power struggle erupted on April 15, 2023, with clashes between the Army and the RSF, leading to hundreds killed, thousands wounded, and a mass exodus from the capital [00:11:06].
Current Outlook
The situation remains unclear, with several brokered ceasefires quickly collapsing and little hope for reconciliation [00:11:26]. There is a real fear that Sudan is on its way to becoming yet another bloody and protracted civil war [00:11:41]. Many ordinary Sudanese desire both generals out of the picture [00:11:53].
The fighting in Sudan has received significant international attention, partly due to thousands of foreigners caught in the conflict and the desperate efforts by countries to evacuate their citizens [00:12:11]. However, critical geopolitical and economic factors are also at play [00:12:39]:
- Sudan possesses mineral resources [00:12:44].
- It is an essential strategic gateway between the Middle East and Africa [00:12:51].
- Its Red Sea coastline provides control over one of the world’s most crucial waterways [00:12:55].
- The alignment of competing generals with different geopolitical actors (United States, China, Russia, European Union) adds an extra dimension [00:13:02].
The outbreak of fighting marks the latest tragic chapter for Sudan, a country that has been in a state of conflict for almost its entire history, giving the military a seemingly permanent place in its politics with disastrous consequences [00:13:21].