From: jameskerlindsay
In March 2024, authorities in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria issued an urgent appeal to Russia for help [00:00:00]. This appeal comes amid growing speculation that Moldova might use the ongoing war in Ukraine to reclaim the territory, which has been under Russia’s protection for over 30 years [00:00:08]. Moscow has publicly warned that any use of force would be considered a direct attack on Russia [00:00:19].
Moldova’s Geography and Demographics
The Republic of Moldova is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe [00:01:53]. It shares borders with Ukraine to the north, east, and south, and with Romania to its west [00:01:57]. Moldova covers approximately 34,000 km² (13,000 square miles) [00:02:03] and has a population of about 2.6 million [00:02:09]. While Romanian-speaking Moldovans constitute the majority, around 7% of the population are Ukrainians, and 4% are ethnic Russians [00:02:15].
Transnistria’s Geography and Demographics
Transnistria is a thin strip of territory located along Moldova’s eastern border with Ukraine [00:02:24]. It is about 200 km long and slightly over 2 km wide at its narrowest point [00:02:30]. The region accounts for approximately 4,200 km² (1,600 square miles), which is about 10% of Moldova’s total territory [00:02:36]. According to Transnistria’s 2015 census, its population was around 475,000 [00:02:46]. Russians and Moldovans each make up about 30% of the population, while Ukrainians comprise roughly a quarter [00:02:53].
Early History and Russian Annexation
Principality of Moldavia and Ottoman Rule
Moldova first emerged in the Middle Ages as the Principality of Moldavia, which was a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire [00:03:04].
Bessarabia and Russian Imperial Rule
Following the Russo-Turkish War at the beginning of the 19th century, the principality’s eastern provinces, known as Bessarabia, were ceded to Moscow [00:03:12]. Although the Kingdom of Romania, formed by the union of Moldavia and Wallachia in the late 19th century, claimed Bessarabia, the area remained under Russian imperial rule until 1917 [00:03:21].
Soviet Era and the Creation of the Moldavian SSR
Establishment of Moldavian ASSR
During the Russian Revolution in 1917, Bessarabia broke away and united with Romania [00:03:33]. However, the newly formed Soviet Union refused to accept this incorporation and continued to claim the region [00:03:42]. To assert its claim, the USSR established the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (MASSR) within the Ukrainian SSR, operating from the east bank of the Dniester River [00:03:51].
WWII and Formation of Moldavian SSR
At the start of the Second World War, Moscow seized the opportunity to reclaim Bessarabia [00:04:05]. On August 2, 1940, Bessarabia and the area on the Dniester River’s eastern bank, known as Trans-Dniester or Transnistria, were merged to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic (Moldavian SSR), a new top-level republic within the USSR [00:04:10].
Demographic Changes under Soviet Rule
After establishing sovereignty over Moldova at the end of WWII, the Soviet leadership introduced ethnic Russians to control the new republic and reduce Romanian nationalist sentiment [00:04:27]. By the late 1980s, Ukrainians and Russians comprised about a quarter of the population, with many concentrated in Transnistria [00:04:38].
The Breakaway of Transnistria
Growing Tensions and Declaration of PMR
As the Soviet Union weakened, Moldova’s communist leadership increasingly emphasized the republic’s Romanian heritage and identity, which fueled tensions with Transnistria [00:04:48]. In August 1991, Transnistrian leaders announced the region’s breakaway, forming the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) [00:04:59].
The 1992 Conflict and Russian Intervention
Just over half a year later, on March 2, 1992, the day the newly independent Republic of Moldova joined the United Nations, fighting erupted [00:05:08]. As clashes broke out between Moldovan and Transnistrian forces, Russian troops stationed in Transnistria intervened [00:05:18].
Establishment of a Frozen Conflict
The fighting lasted for four and a half months until a ceasefire was agreed upon [00:05:26]. Under the agreement, the Russian Federation contributed troops to an international peacekeeping force and maintained a separate military contingent in Transnistria, becoming the guarantor of the de facto state’s existence [00:05:31]. Despite calls from the UN General Assembly for troop withdrawal, approximately 1,500 Russian troops remain in Transnistria to this day [00:05:47].
Decades of Unresolved Conflict
International Efforts and Stalemate
Over the following decades, international efforts to resolve the Transnistrian issue failed [00:05:57]. While the sides interacted, neither was inclined to resolve the matter [00:06:03].
Reasons for Lack of Settlement
Many in Moldova feared that a settlement would introduce more Russian speakers, thereby strengthening Moscow’s influence over the country’s domestic affairs [00:06:07]. For its part, Transnistria, existing on the margins of international law, had little desire to reach a settlement that would mean giving up subsidies from Russia and earnings from smuggling and organized crime [00:06:19].
Moscow’s Strategic Interest
The unresolved situation also benefited Moscow [00:06:33]. As long as the conflict persisted, Moldova would be prevented from moving closer to the West, as neither the EU nor NATO would be interested in admitting a divided state [00:06:37]. Moldova is constitutionally committed to neutrality [00:06:48].
Impact of the Ukraine War
Reshaping the Status Quo
After 30 years of relative peace, the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 radically reshaped the status quo regarding Moldova-Transnistria relations [00:06:56].
Moldova’s Shift Towards the West
Just over a year prior, Moldova elected a staunchly pro-European president, Maia Sandu [00:07:03]. There were fears that if Russian forces seized control of Ukraine, Moldova would become Moscow’s next target [00:07:09]. These concerns were exacerbated by a series of attacks in Transnistria in mid-2022, which many saw as a pretext for a Russian invasion [00:07:17]. In response, Moldova took urgent steps to move closer to the West, focusing on EU membership [00:07:26]. Moldova applied to join the EU in March 2022, was granted candidate status three months later, and was cleared to start formal membership talks in December 2023 [00:07:37].
Strategic Reassessment of Transnistria
Although there were repeated suggestions of Russian plans to overthrow the Moldovan government, the threat of a direct Russian military invasion receded [00:07:49]. By late 2023, there was little prospect that Russian forces would be able to break through southern Ukraine and link up with their garrison in Transnistria, which had been a major fear at the start of the Ukraine war [00:08:02]. This strategic shift in Ukraine significantly affected the debate over Transnistria [00:08:21]. With the apparent threat of a Russian invasion of Moldova gone, attention turned to the possibility of a Moldovan attempt to retake Transnistria [00:08:28]. Such calls were strengthened by Azerbaijan’s military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, which saw Baku regain control of the region after 30 years [00:08:38].
Current Dynamics and Future Prospects
Moldova’s Assertiveness
Moscow warned that any attempt by the Moldovan government to resolve the issue by force would be seen as a direct attack on Russia, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisting Russia would protect its 200,000 citizens in Transnistria and Moldova [00:08:51]. However, the Moldovan government has dismissed the idea of Russian retaliation, arguing that Russia’s military options have collapsed [00:09:15]. With Russia cut off from Transnistria, Moldova is becoming more assertive [00:09:23]. Ukraine’s closure of its border with Transnistria significantly reduced trade [00:09:30]. Moldova subsequently introduced tariffs on goods entering Transnistria from its side, a move Transnistrian leaders called an “economic blockade” [00:09:36].
Transnistrian Appeal to Russia
These actions led the Transnistrian authorities to convene a “Congress of Deputies at all Levels” at the end of February 2024, the first such high-level meeting in 18 years [00:09:47]. While the Congress appealed to Moscow for help, it did not request formal annexation, as many observers had expected [00:09:59].
Arguments Against Military Reintegration
Despite calls for Moldova to retake Transnistria by force, military action is highly improbable [00:10:09]. Moldova has consistently insisted on a peaceful resolution, and there has never been deep ethnic hostility between the two sides [00:10:25]. Although Moldova has increased efforts to assert control, there are no indications of a military solution [00:10:39]. Moldova’s armed forces are small and comparatively weak, and despite announced increased defense spending and modernization plans, there are no signs it is ready for an invasion [00:10:47]. Even if an invasion were attempted, success is not guaranteed, as Transnistrians might resist, and the region is increasing its security forces [00:11:12]. Outside forces, including NATO, might avoid sending combat troops to Moldova, although Romania, a NATO member, might act in such a situation [00:11:28].
Furthermore, there are compelling political reasons against forced integration [00:11:48]. While pro-European voices are dominant in Moldova, many ordinary Moldovans remain pro-Russian [00:11:59]. Forcible integration of Transnistria might ironically strengthen pro-Russian support within Moldova, making Russia more powerful than if Transnistria remains politically quarantined [00:12:07]. Signs suggest Moscow’s influence may be waning in Transnistria, evidenced by lower turnout for the recent Russian presidential election [00:12:21]. Simultaneously, Transnistria is slowly moving towards Europe, with trade with the European Union significantly increasing to around 70% of its imports and exports due to Russia being cut off [00:12:39]. For these reasons, Moldova may be better off allowing the current situation to persist, as a peaceful, organic reunification might still be possible [00:12:56].