From: jameskerlindsay
The emergence of a new geopolitical bloc of Turkic states is becoming increasingly apparent on the international stage [00:01:16]. This drive for closer cooperation is rooted in deep historical and cultural connections shared by these nations [00:01:07].
Defining the Turkic World
The Turkic states generally include six specific countries:
- Turkey [00:01:35]
- Azerbaijan [00:01:35]
- Turkmenistan [00:01:35]
- Uzbekistan [00:01:36]
- Kazakhstan [00:01:36]
- Kyrgyzstan [00:01:36]
These countries, stretching from Europe to China, together span 4.7 million square kilometres, making them the seventh largest country by land area if combined [00:01:54]. Their combined population is 162 million, with over half residing in Turkey, making them the world’s ninth most populous state [00:02:05]. Economically, their total GDP is almost $1.2 trillion, ranking them as the 15th largest economy globally [00:02:16].
Beyond these six, significant Turkic communities exist in other nations, including:
- Russia [00:01:41]
- China [00:01:47]
- Iran [00:01:47]
- Mongolia [00:01:47]
- Tajikistan [00:01:47]
- Afghanistan [00:01:47]
- Georgia [00:01:47]
- Greece [00:01:48]
- Bulgaria [00:01:48]
- Moldova [00:01:48]
- Cyprus [00:01:48]
Shared Cultural Foundations
The Turkic countries are primarily connected by language, forming a single, albeit branched, language family [00:02:26]. Close religious ties also exist, with the majority of Turkic peoples adhering to Sunni Islam, though many are secular [00:02:36]. Azerbaijan stands as an exception, being predominantly Shia [00:02:45], while Christian Turkic communities can be found in Russia and Moldova [00:02:49].
Historical Trajectories
Ancient Origins and Expansion
Turkic peoples are generally believed to have originated in the Altai mountains, an area covering parts of modern-day Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia [00:02:54]. In the 6th century, they expanded westward, establishing a Turkic Empire that conquered much of Central Asia. This empire, centred on the famous Silk Road, fostered cultural, trading, and intellectual exchange between East and West for centuries before falling under Mongol and then Chinese rule [00:03:03].
The Turkic expansion continued beyond these heartlands [00:03:24]. After converting to Islam in the 8th century [00:03:29], the Seljuk Turkic tribe moved into the Middle East in the 11th century, quickly gaining control over much of the Islamic world [00:03:32]. From there, they advanced northwest into the Anatolian Peninsula, the heartland of the Eastern Roman Empire, Byzantium [00:03:42].
The late 13th century marked a significant turning point with the dramatic expansion of a small Turkish tribe near the Aegean Sea [00:03:49]. This led to the Ottoman Turks overrunning the Byzantine capital in 1453 and subsequently controlling vast territories across Southeast Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa for 350 years [00:04:02].
Separation and Re-emergence
For over a thousand years, the eastern and western Turkic peoples were largely separated [00:04:15]. In the 19th century, both faced the growing threat of Imperial Russia, which brought Central Asia and the Caucasus under its control while simultaneously threatening the Ottoman Empire [00:04:19].
World War I profoundly altered this dynamic. The fall of the Russian Tsarist regime and the rise of the Soviet Union led to the creation of Soviet Socialist Republics in Central Asia and Azerbaijan in the 1920s and 30s, forming the basis of today’s independent states [00:04:41]. Concurrently, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire led to the birth of the Republic of Turkey, which adopted a European-facing path [00:04:56]. This led to a significant estrangement between the two parts of the Turkic world, particularly during the Cold War, when Turkey joined NATO and had virtually no relations with the Turkic peoples of Central Asia [00:05:10].
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 transformed this situation, as the five predominantly Turkic republics gained sovereignty and joined the United Nations in March 1992 [00:05:25]. Immediately, Turkey sought to expand its influence, becoming the first country to recognize them and convening a summit in Ankara in October 1992 [00:05:42]. Initial efforts, such as the International Organization of Turkic Culture, saw limited success, as the new republics remained closely tied to Moscow economically, politically, and socially [00:06:01]. Turkey’s focus subsequently shifted back to its European Union ambitions [00:06:28].
Evolution of Cooperation
A renewed push for Turkic cooperation began in the early 2000s, particularly after the Justice and Development Party, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came to power in Turkey in 2002 [00:06:56]. Erdogan, aiming to expand Turkey’s influence globally, saw the Turkic states of Central Asia as key [00:07:07].
In October 2009, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan formed the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, also known as the Turkic Council [00:07:29]. This group held its first summit in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in 2011, pledging to foster new economic, political, trading, and cultural links [00:07:48]. The Council expanded, with Hungary and Turkmenistan joining as observers in 2014 and 2021 respectively, and Uzbekistan becoming the fifth full member in 2019 [00:08:03]. Despite initial slow progress, the Council gained new momentum.
In late 2021, the Council rebranded itself as the Organization of Turkic States, aiming for a higher profile and renewed impetus [00:08:46]. This was further solidified at the Organization of Turkic States summit in Uzbekistan 2022 in November 2022, where leaders agreed on measures to strengthen activities, including the creation of a Turkic Investment Fund [00:09:02]. The summit also controversially admitted the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as an observer, drawing international criticism [00:09:18].
Geopolitical Impetus
The drive for greater cooperation among Turkic states is also influenced by wider geopolitical factors [00:09:30]. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has fueled a sense that Moscow’s long-standing influence in Central Asia is declining rapidly [00:09:41]. For example, Kazakhstan has distanced itself from Moscow’s actions in Ukraine despite being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) [00:09:57]. Similar trends have been observed in Uzbekistan [00:10:15], and latent tensions exist between Russia and Azerbaijan [00:10:19].
Additionally, concerns about China’s growing strength and influence in the region, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, provide further impetus for Turkic states to work together more closely [00:10:36]. Central Asia is a key component of this initiative, which aims to establish trading links across Asia, Africa, and into Europe [00:10:51].
Future Outlook
There is a growing awareness among Turkic countries of the potential value of their shared ethnocultural ties, despite a long history of separation between the eastern and western Turkic communities [00:11:05]. Some voices within the Organization of Turkic States suggest it could evolve into a political community modeled on the European Union [00:11:34].
The future of this grouping will depend on the impetus for integration and the question of leadership [00:11:54]. Turkey, being the most populous and wealthiest member, is an obvious candidate to lead such an effort [00:12:08]. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in particular, may seek to cement his legacy as a leader of the Turkic world [00:12:22]. However, whether other Turkic leaders would accept such a dominant role for Turkey remains a key question [00:12:43]. Nevertheless, the growing ties are underpinned by a tangible sense of purpose, suggesting the potential emergence of a new geopolitical grouping [00:12:51].