From: jameskerlindsay
The conflict in Myanmar is often perceived as a struggle between the military and pro-democracy forces, but it is far more complex, incorporating an 80-year insurgency involving the state and various ethnic militias [01:15:27]. Arguably, the civil war in Myanmar is the most complicated and protracted civil war globally [01:29:05].
Myanmar’s Diverse Demographics
The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, also known as Burma, is located in Southeast Asia, bordering Bangladesh, India, China, Laos, and Thailand [01:45:00]. With a population of around 55 million, it is home to over 100 ethnolinguistic and religious communities [02:06:00].
The largest group is the Bamar (Burmans), who are predominantly Buddhist, constitute about half the population, and mainly reside in the central parts of the country [02:18:00]. Other significant ethnic groups include:
- Karen (largely Christian) and Mon (Buddhist) in the south [02:32:00].
- Tai-speaking Shan and Chinese-speaking Wa in the east [02:37:00].
- Chin (predominantly Christian), Rakhine (Buddhist), and Rohingya (Muslim) in the west [02:41:00].
- Kachin (mainly Christian) in the north [02:46:00].
Historical Roots of Insurgency
Myanmar’s story of conflict is deeply intertwined with its colonial past. Britain’s imperial conquest in the 19th century led to Burma being incorporated into British India before becoming a separate Crown Colony in 1937 [03:01:00].
Post-independence, the country faced severe instability:
- Assassination of Aung San: General Aung San, seen as the father of the nation, was assassinated by political rivals while serving as prime minister [03:52:00].
- Early Karen Rebellion: The first major ethnic insurgency broke out when the Karen launched a rebellion, which continued even after independence on January 4, 1948 [04:01:00].
- Right of Secession: Although the new Union of Burma’s constitution explicitly accepted a right of secession after 10 years, ethnic tensions persisted [04:13:00].
Military’s Role and Intensification of Conflict
The Armed Forces, which emerged from the wartime Burma Independence Army (BIA), came to see themselves as the defenders of the new state’s unity and sovereignty [04:23:00].
The military’s first foray into politics was in October 1958, establishing a caretaker government under General Ne Win [04:39:00]. Ne Win seized power again in March 1962, transforming Burma into a highly repressive one-party military state [04:55:00]. This repression fueled various ethnic insurgencies [05:08:00].
By the 1970s, a wide variety of ethnic opposition groups with insurgent military wings had emerged, including:
- Kachin Independence Army [05:21:00]
- Karen National Liberation Army [05:21:00]
- Karenni Liberation Army [05:25:00]
- Mon National Defence Organisation [05:25:00]
- Shan State Army [05:29:00]
- Wa National Army [05:29:00]
Later Developments and Shifting Dynamics
By the mid-1980s, Burma had become one of the poorest countries, leading to widespread protests in 1988 that forced Ne Win to step down [05:35:00]. A new military body, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), took over [06:01:00].
Despite allowing elections in May 1990, the SLORC refused to accept the victory of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), co-founded by Aung San Suu Kyi [06:12:00]. The SLORC remained in power to “preserve the country’s unity, solidarity, and sovereignty” [06:30:00]. It intensified repression against both democratic opposition and the significantly proliferated ethnic insurgencies [06:48:00]. During this period, the military regime renamed Burma to Myanmar [07:06:00].
Over the years, the military steadily reasserted control through force or ceasefires [07:13:00], while some areas, like Shan, descended into criminality with groups using drug production to fund their activities [07:24:00].
Towards Apparent Democracy and its Limitations
In 2008, the military unveiled a new constitution designed to ensure its continued political centrality, granting it a quarter of parliamentary seats and reserving key ministries for military appointees [07:40:00]. Elections in 2010 were won by the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a military front, but were boycotted by the NLD [07:57:00].
The NLD overwhelmingly won the 2015 elections, with Aung San Suu Kyi becoming State Counsellor, effectively prime minister [08:30:00]. However, hopes for a new approach to ethnic insurgencies were premature. The NLD showed little interest in creating a federal system, a key demand of many ethnic groups, and defended the military’s brutal treatment of minorities, including the Rohingya [08:55:00]. This suggested that pro-democracy sentiment was often aligned with majoritarian ethnic Burmese nationalism [09:24:00].
2021 Coup and Renewed Insurgency
Despite the apparent alignment, the NLD won another resounding victory in November 2020 [09:47:00]. However, on February 1, 2021, the military seized power, declaring a one-year state of emergency based on unsubstantiated claims of fraud [10:04:00].
This takeover led to widespread popular protests, which became more organized over time, leading to the creation of the National Unity Government (NUG) and its military wing, the People’s Defense Force (PDF) [10:19:00]. As the military cracked down on dissent, many ethnic rebel groups stepped up their attacks and some began to align with the NUG, which now proclaimed its intention to restructure Myanmar as a federation [10:47:00].
Operation 1027 and Recent Gains
Crucially, several key rebel groups initially remained detached from the resistance. This included the “Three Brotherhood Alliance,” comprising:
- Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (based in the Kokang region of northern Shan) [11:10:00]
- Ta’ang National Liberation Army (also based in Shan) [11:19:00]
- Arakan Army (in the west of the country) [11:19:00]
This changed on October 27, 2023, when these groups launched a major coordinated offensive known as Operation 1027 [11:31:00]. The Alliance has since made significant headway, capturing large swathes of territory, with reports of mass surrenders and defections from regime forces [11:44:00]. This success has reinvigorated other ethnic rebel groups across the country [11:58:00].
China also appears to have supported the Alliance, which is fighting organized crime gangs along the Chinese border [12:13:00]. Beijing has been increasingly concerned about a growing internet scam industry that has trafficked over 100,000 Chinese nationals into Myanmar [12:22:00].
Outlook and Complexity
Many observers believe Operation 1027 represents the most severe threat to Myanmar’s armed forces in decades [12:34:00]. However, caution is advised as the military is adjusting tactics and may initiate a mass mobilization if insurgents approach the capital or major cities [12:48:00].
Even if the resistance wins and the military regime is defeated, it won’t necessarily end the civil war [13:08:00]. The conflict is based on a far more profound and longer-running struggle by the country’s various ethnic groups for autonomy and independence, a fight that has lasted for almost 80 years [13:28:00]. Myanmar will still face the enormous task of resolving what is effectively the world’s longest-running civil war [13:48:00].