From: jameskerlindsay
Ethiopia and Somalia have a long history of strained relations, marked by decades of tension and a “bitter and brutal war” in the 1970s [00:00:04]. Recently, these relations have been further complicated by Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access through Somaliland [00:00:14].
Historical Tensions
The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia has been problematic for over 60 years, at times leading to war and invasion [00:01:31].
Geography and Demographics
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation in East Africa, has a highly diverse population of over 80 distinct ethnic groups, including Oromos, Amhara, Tigrayans, and a significant Somali community in its east [00:01:49]. In contrast, Somalia is one of Africa’s least ethnically diverse countries, with almost all inhabitants being ethnic Somalis, though society is divided by a complex network of clan affiliations [00:02:03]. The northern region of Somaliland broke away from Somalia in the early 1990s [00:02:18].
Colonial Legacy and Territorial Claims
The origins of contemporary tensions trace back to the late 19th century when European powers colonized Africa [00:02:30]. While Ethiopia (then Abyssinia) was not formally conquered, Somali-inhabited coastal lands were divided among French, British, and Italian colonial powers [00:02:37]. In 1887, the Ethiopian Empire seized control of the predominantly Somali-inhabited Ogaden region, a move Britain accepted a decade later [00:02:48].
In 1960, British and Italian Somaliland united to form the independent Somali Republic [00:02:59]. Relations with Ethiopia immediately became strained as Somali nationalists sought to unite all Somali-inhabited areas into a “Greater Somalia,” including the Ogaden region, French-held territory (later Djibouti), and parts of Kenya [00:03:10].
The Ogaden War (1977-1978)
Tensions escalated dramatically in 1969 when General Muhammad Siad Barre seized power in Somalia, vowing to unite all Somali territories [00:03:32]. He provided political and military support to Somali insurgents in the Ogaden [00:03:46]. In July 1977, Somalia, supported by insurgents, invaded Ethiopia following the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie [00:03:51].
Initially, Somalia made significant gains, but the situation reversed when the Soviet Union shifted its support from Siad Barre to Ethiopia’s new communist military regime [00:04:11]. By March 1978, Ethiopian forces had retaken the Ogaden, forcing a humiliating withdrawal of Somali troops [00:04:18]. The Ogaden War marked a significant shift in relations, with direct conflict transitioning to indirect confrontation as both countries supported rebel groups on each other’s territory throughout the 1980s [00:04:29].
Post-Cold War Developments
The end of the Cold War profoundly impacted both nations [00:04:59].
In Ethiopia, the loss of Soviet support led to the overthrow of its military regime [00:05:08]. As a result, Ethiopia accepted Eritrea’s independence [00:05:16], which meant Ethiopia lost direct access to the Red Sea and became a landlocked country [00:05:21].
In Somalia, Siad Barre was overthrown in January 1991, leading to the collapse of central government authority and the country’s descent into anarchy and civil war [00:05:30]. Amidst this chaos, the northern area that had once been British Somaliland declared independence as the Republic of Somaliland on May 18, 1991 [00:05:46]. Despite its stability, Somaliland’s calls for international recognition were largely ignored, with the international community awaiting lead recognition from African states [00:06:06].
Ethiopia closely monitored developments in Somalia, fearing regional instability [00:06:30]. In 2006, Ethiopia launched a full-scale military invasion to drive out an Islamist group controlling Mogadishu [00:06:39]. Subsequently, Ethiopia supported Somalia’s rebuilding efforts under a federal government, playing a central role in an African Union peacekeeping mission and assisting with efforts against Al-Shabaab [00:06:51].
By 2018, relations between Ethiopia and Somalia were strengthening, particularly following the emergence of reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, who promised greater regional and international cooperation [00:07:10]. However, as Ethiopia’s status grew, the issue of sea access, lost with Eritrea’s independence, resurfaced, sparking renewed tensions with Somalia [00:07:24].
Recent Tensions and Diplomatic Efforts
The Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal
On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) [00:07:55]. This agreement stipulated that in return for a long-term lease over a Red Sea port facility (for commercial and military use), Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland [00:08:07].
The announcement was met with jubilation in Somaliland, which saw it as a breakthrough for broader international acceptance and potential UN membership [00:08:18]. However, it caused an immediate outcry in Mogadishu [00:08:34]. The Somali government denounced the deal as a “fundamental infringement” of its territorial integrity and sovereignty, expelled the Ethiopian ambassador, and complained to the UN Security Council [00:08:39].
Somalia escalated its efforts to gain African and international support, highlighting the deal’s potential to undermine its stability [00:08:56]. Mogadishu even suggested military action and began building closer defense and security relationships, notably with Egypt, which has a longstanding dispute with Ethiopia [00:09:11]. Ethiopia, however, initially remained undeterred, reaffirming its commitment to the port deal [00:09:24].
Turkish Mediation
As relations deteriorated, Turkey, which maintains close ties with both nations, stepped in to de-escalate the situation [00:09:33]. Following talks in Ankara mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the two sides issued a joint declaration on December 11, 2024 (likely 2023 or 2024 for the talks, given the audio states Feb 2025 talks, but the video says Dec 11, 2024), agreeing to launch technical talks by February 2025 and reach a final agreement within four months [00:09:42].
The declaration acknowledged Ethiopia’s need for assured sea access and agreed to work towards a settlement that would allow Ethiopia “reliable, secure, and sustained access to the sea under Somalia’s sovereign authority” [00:10:06].
Implications
A final agreement would have profound implications for the Horn of Africa, a region long prone to conflict and instability [00:10:23]. It could foster better economic and political relations, laying foundations for greater security cooperation against extremism and other regional crises [00:10:36]. The declaration has been widely welcomed internationally, with support from the UN Secretary-General, the US State Department, and the British Foreign Office [00:10:49].
The deal is also a significant win for Turkey, highlighting its growing influence as a political and diplomatic actor in Africa [00:11:01]. The “obvious loser” in this development is Somaliland [00:11:23]. Its hopes for Ethiopian recognition to trigger broader African and international acceptance now seem premature [00:11:27].