From: jameskerlindsay
Turkey faces significant economic challenges, leading to shifts in its foreign policy and diplomatic relations. These difficulties have prompted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to seek renewed engagement with Western partners [10:21:00].
Economic Distress
The Turkish economy is currently experiencing substantial difficulties [09:51:00]. Key indicators of this distress include:
- Persistent Budget Deficit: Turkey has consistently run a budget deficit [09:54:00].
- Currency Weakness and Inflation: The country has struggled to prop up the Turkish lira in efforts to control inflation [09:57:00].
- Depleting Foreign Currency Reserves: Turkey’s foreign currency reserves are dangerously low [10:00:00].
- Monetary Policy Stance: Erdogan’s long-standing opposition to using interest rates to manage the economy has exacerbated the situation [10:05:00].
These factors combine to place the country on the brink of a financial crisis [10:11:00]. Furthermore, traditional supporters in the Gulf Arab states appear less willing to provide financial support [10:16:00].
Impact on Foreign Policy and Western Relations
The dire economic situation has influenced Turkey’s foreign policy, prompting Erdogan to seek support from Western partners [10:21:00]. This has led to several notable actions:
- NATO Membership: Turkey opened the way for Sweden’s NATO membership [10:32:00].
- Ukraine Support: Erdogan has expressed support for Ukrainian NATO membership and handed over Ukrainian prisoners of war [10:37:00].
- Diplomatic Engagement: These moves have resulted in early dividends, including high-profile meetings with senior European Union officials and President Biden [10:47:00].
- Military Procurement: The U.S. Administration has indicated a willingness to approve the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, a long-desired purchase [11:02:00].
- Anticipated Financial Aid: There is an expectation that Western partners will be more willing to assist Turkey if its economy enters a crisis [11:12:00].
European Union Accession Talks
Despite renewed engagement, the possibility of renewing Turkey’s European Union accession talks remains unlikely [11:28:00].
- Democratic Criteria: Turkey currently does not meet the democratic requirements for membership due to Erdogan’s authoritarianism [11:40:00].
- Lack of Appetite: There is no significant appetite for Turkish membership within the EU, neither among leaders nor at the popular level [11:49:00]. Public support for Turkish membership has steadily declined since the mid-1990s [12:05:00].
- Mutual Disinterest: There is a strong argument that Erdogan himself is not genuinely keen on EU membership, valuing the validation of talks more than the necessary reforms [12:20:00].
Both Turkey and the EU aim to maintain good working relations while avoiding a formal restart of accession negotiations [12:53:00]. European Council President Charles Michel suggested a “renewed relationship” without mentioning membership talks [13:13:00].
Future Outlook
While recent steps at the NATO Summit were significant, many Western leaders doubt that this marks the beginning of a new era of relations [13:33:00]. For genuine improvement, Ankara needs to build trust and address its political and human rights shortcomings [13:41:00]. The extent of Turkey’s financial problems has led some Western leaders to question the potential cost of this “rediscovered friendship” [13:58:00].