From: jameskerlindsay
Armenia faces significant hurdles in its potential pursuit of NATO or European Union membership, despite recent Armenian’s geopolitical shift and Western engagement away from Russia [00:30:30]. The war in Ukraine has prompted many European nations, including Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, to re-evaluate their foreign policy [00:47:47]. While Armenia is reconsidering its strategic direction, a full break with Moscow and alignment with the West is not straightforward [01:30:30].
Historical Context and Shifting Alliances
Since the Cold War, Armenia has maintained close ties with Russia [01:20:20]. These ties, including economic relations and hosting a Russian military base, were significantly shaped by the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh [05:37:37]. Armenia joined the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance, in 2002 [06:27:27].
While Armenia signaled a desire for closer ties to the European Union by joining its Eastern Partnership in 2009, this ended abruptly in 2013 when it chose to join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union instead [07:08:08]. Although a new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU was signed in 2017, Armenia seemed firmly committed to Russia [07:33:33].
However, relations with Moscow deteriorated, especially after Azerbaijan’s military campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 [08:24:24]. Many Armenians blamed Russia for failing to prevent or stop the war [09:09:09]. The complete takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023, with no Russian intervention, led to a collapse in relations, highlighted by Armenia ratifying participation in the International Criminal Court and boycotting the CSTO summit [09:53:53].
Challenges to NATO Membership
While Armenia may be prepared to leave the CSTO, joining NATO is considered “extremely difficult, if not impossible” [11:06:06].
- Turkish Opposition: Despite many NATO countries potentially welcoming Armenia, deep-rooted tensions between Armenia and Turkey mean Ankara would almost certainly block any application [11:16:16]. Hungary might also pose an objection [11:24:24].
- Unacceptable Demands: Even if Turkey did not veto, it would likely demand a high price, such as Armenia dropping genocide accusations related to the 1915 events [11:32:32].
- Corridor to Nakhichevan: Turkey could condition membership on granting Azerbaijan a land corridor to Nakhichevan, which would create an unbroken transport link between Turkey and Central Asia [11:42:42].
Challenges to EU Membership
EU membership is considered a more logical and feasible option, especially given that neighboring Georgia has recently been recommended for candidacy, indicating the Union’s openness to Caucasus expansion [11:59:59]. However, it does not seem to be on Armenia’s agenda [12:12:12].
- Lack of Realism: Most Armenians do not see EU membership as a realistic possibility [12:20:20]. Despite a pro-Armenian lobby in Europe and observers seeing it as a natural candidate, many Armenians genuinely believe the EU would not want them [12:26:26].
- Societal Concerns: Armenia remains a largely conservative country, and concerns exist about the broader societal implications of joining the EU. Liberalization, such as greater LGBT rights, is seen as a requirement [12:45:45].
- Russian Disinformation: Russia appears to be running an active disinformation campaign through its broadcasts in Armenia, encouraging these negative attitudes about EU membership [13:03:03].
- Public Opinion: While around half the population favors EU membership, this support is significantly lower than in almost any other potential member country [13:15:15].
Security Concerns and Russia’s Enduring Role
A significant concern for Armenians is the belief that the West cannot provide the security they need [13:37:37].
- Threat from Neighbors: The primary threat is perceived to be from Turkey and Azerbaijan [13:41:41]. There are fears that Azerbaijan may attempt to seize southern Armenia to create a land bridge to Nakhichevan [13:45:45].
- West’s Inability to Act: Armenians believe the West would be unable or unwilling to prevent such an attack [13:56:56].
- Reliance on Russia (Despite Failures): Despite Moscow’s recent failures to prevent Azerbaijan from taking Nagorno-Karabakh, many Armenians still believe Russia is the only actor that could prevent Armenia’s division, especially given that such a move would remove an essential link to Russia’s key ally, Iran [14:05:05].
Ultimately, Armenians, reflecting their long history of being caught between rival powers, feel they must accept the current situation [14:27:27]. While they no longer trust Russia, they feel that abandoning it entirely and pursuing closer Western ties is not a viable option, at least for the present [14:39:39].