From: jameskerlindsay
In early June 2021, Nigeria attracted international attention by banning Twitter after the platform deleted a tweet from the country’s president [00:00:00]. The tweet referred to the Biafra War of the 1960s and implied that the government might again use force against resurgent separatist sentiment [00:00:09]. This event highlighted the ongoing significance of the Biafran independence movement [00:00:18].
When an attempted secession is defeated, the territory may be reincorporated with little to no further talks of separatism [00:00:48]. However, resentment can linger, leading to the campaign resurfacing decades later [00:00:56]. The Biafran independence campaign in southeast Nigeria is a notable example of a resurgent secessionist movement [00:01:07].
Historical Context
In the late 1960s, Nigeria experienced one of the bloodiest civil wars in modern history to suppress the self-proclaimed Republic of Biafra [00:01:16]. Over two and a half years, millions of lives were lost before the breakaway territory was defeated and re-incorporated into the federation [00:01:24]. Yet, more than 50 years later, pro-independence sentiment is rising again, posing a risk of renewed serious conflict [00:01:33].
Nigeria, located in West Africa, is the continent’s most populous country with approximately 200 million inhabitants [00:01:52]. It comprises numerous ethnic groups, primarily the predominantly Muslim Hausa and Fulani in the north, the Christian and Muslim Yoruba in the southwest, and the predominantly Christian Igbo in the southeast [00:01:59].
Origins of the Conflict
The story of Biafra begins with British colonization in the 19th century [00:02:23]. Initially, Nigeria was divided into two distinct colonies: the Muslim-dominated Northern Nigerian Protectorate and the predominantly Christian Southern Nigerian Protectorate, which were merged in 1914 [00:02:29]. In 1954, the country was formally constituted as a federation of three regions, roughly aligning with the main ethnic groups: the Hausa-Fulani dominated Northern Region, the Yoruba-dominated Western Region, and the Igbo-dominated Eastern Region [00:02:40]. Nigeria gained independence in 1960 [00:02:57].
However, tensions soon emerged [00:03:02]. A military coup by southern officers in January 1966, following disputed elections, led to the assassination of many leading political figures, including the premier of the Northern Region [00:03:04]. In reprisal attacks, thousands of ethnic Igbo living in the north were murdered, prompting over a million others to flee south to the Eastern Region and fueling calls for the territory to break away [00:03:17].
Although a deal for a looser federal arrangement was reportedly reached between the Eastern leadership and the federal government in early 1967, the federal government appeared to renege by announcing a plan to divide the country’s three regions into 12 new parts [00:03:30]. This move was seen as an attempt to undermine the East, leading its leader, Colonel Odumegwu Ojukwu, to declare independence on May 30, 1967 [00:03:45].
The Biafran War (1967-1970)
Just under six weeks after Biafra’s declaration of independence, the government launched a full-scale invasion to suppress the secession [00:03:55]. The ensuing conflict, known as the Biafran War or the Nigerian Civil War, became a humanitarian catastrophe [00:04:01]. Beyond combat fatalities, an estimated one to three million people died from hunger due to supply cutoffs to the breakaway region [00:04:07]. By January 1970, the Nigerian government, supported by key international allies such as Britain and the Soviet Union, had defeated the last pockets of resistance [00:04:16]. The Republic of Biafra ceased to exist on January 15, 1970 [00:04:26].
Post-War Period and Resurgence
In the immediate aftermath of the conflict, the Federal Government called for national unity [00:04:32]. General Yakubu Gowon, the country’s leader, famously stated there were “no victors and no vanquished” [00:04:37]. This led to a policy centered on the “Three R’s”: reintegration, reconciliation, and reconstruction [00:04:44]. The trauma of the war and the scale of defeat seemingly kept Igbo independence sentiment in check [00:04:52].
However, by the late 1990s, the situation began to change [00:05:00]. This shift was partly due to the passage of time, as new generations emerged without direct experience of the conflict [00:05:04]. Deeper roots for the resurgence included a widespread feeling that, despite the official “Three R’s” policy, the Igbo continued to face hostility and discrimination [00:05:13]. Despite being one of the country’s three main groups, they were systematically excluded from key positions, including the highest political offices [00:05:24]. Many argued that the government deliberately neglected economic development in the region, providing lower federal funding and few infrastructure projects [00:05:32].
Another contributing factor was the emergence of conflict in the Niger Delta in the 1990s [00:05:43]. Although the Delta, much of which was claimed by Biafra, became Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest oil-producing region, little of the revenue reached local communities, which instead experienced significant environmental damage [00:05:48]. This sense of general marginalization, coupled with exploitation and repression in the Delta, appeared to kickstart the revival of the Biafran independence movement [00:06:04].
Key Organizations and Events of the Revival
In 1999, the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) was established to spearhead efforts for breakaway [00:06:16]. Several other groups, some offshoots of MASSOB, emerged in subsequent years [00:06:24]. The most significant of these was the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), founded in 2012 by Nnamdi Kanu, a charismatic figure based in Britain [00:06:30]. His media outlet, Radio Biafra, has become a leading voice for the Biafran independence movement [00:06:38].
The Nigerian Government promptly cracked down on neo-Biafran sentiment [00:06:46]. This included frequent clashes with pro-independence supporters, the outlawing of MASSOB membership in 2005, and the arrest of its leader, Ralph Uwazuruike, in 2007 [00:06:51].
Current tensions largely trace back to key developments in 2015 [00:07:02]. The first was the election of Muhammadu Buhari as Nigerian president [00:07:08]. A former general and military ruler from the Muslim North, Buhari made it clear he would prioritize areas that supported him and would take a hard line against the country’s growing number of insurgencies and separatist movements, including pro-Biafran organizations [00:07:13].
The second key factor was the arrest of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu during a trip to Nigeria in October 2015 [00:07:31]. Facing charges of sedition and treason, which carry the death penalty, his supporters launched a series of protests [00:07:39]. These protests escalated into violence and harsh repression by government forces, including what Amnesty International described as the deliberate use of deadly force [00:07:47]. Although Kanu was eventually released on bail in April 2017 and has since left Nigeria, these events strengthened IPOB’s standing [00:07:56]. Later that year, the Nigerian Government officially designated IPOB as a terrorist organization, though Kanu insisted it was dedicated to peaceful means for a referendum on Biafran independence [00:08:04].
Since then, tensions in the southeast have been exacerbated by the “Herder-Farmer Conflict,” or Herder War [00:08:18]. Climate change has led to increased desertification in the north, pushing Muslim Fulani cattle herders south into lands held by settled farmers [00:08:26]. This conflict has resulted in over 10,000 deaths and tens of thousands displaced [00:08:36]. As herders encroached on Igbo territory, President Buhari, himself a Fulani, has been accused of not doing enough to stop the attacks [00:08:43]. Following deadly clashes in late 2020, IPOB announced the establishment of an armed wing, the Eastern Security Network, claiming it was to defend against herder attacks [00:08:51]. This development has led to further violence with government forces [00:09:00]. This rising violence prompted President Buhari’s tweet, which was later removed and led to Nigeria’s decision to ban Twitter [00:09:07].
Current Challenges and Outlook
The independence movement faces significant opposition from the Federal Government and internal challenges [00:09:20]. Opinion within the Igbo community is divided, not only between MASSOB and the now more dominant IPOB, but also generationally [00:09:27]. While the independence movement reportedly enjoys growing support among disaffected youth, the Igbo establishment, particularly older members who remember the war, are more cautious or even opposed to independence and secessionist movements [00:09:40].
Practical issues also persist, such as the unclear boundaries of a potential Biafran state [00:09:57]. Some supporters advocate for the inclusion of all areas claimed by Biafra in the 1960s, while others focus on a core group of Igbo-dominated states in the southeast [00:10:03]. This is a crucial point, as many non-Igbo populations within the historical Biafran territory oppose independence and wish to remain part of Nigeria [00:10:14]. However, focusing solely on smaller Igbo areas would leave any Biafran state landlocked within Nigeria and exclude most of the key oil-producing regions [00:10:21].
Currently, there appears to be little immediate likelihood that the government will concede to demands for a referendum on independence, let alone permit secession [00:10:37]. Facing growing separatist challenges elsewhere, the government seems determined to continue cracking down on Biafran independence sentiment [00:10:45]. Fears are growing that IPOB’s new militancy could lead to an increasingly violent phase in the independence campaign [00:10:55].
The case of Biafra highlights that the end of a secessionist conflict does not always mean the end of a secessionist movement [00:11:04]. Fifty years after one of modern history’s most brutal separatist conflicts, the movement for an independent Biafra is again gaining ground [00:11:11]. This resurgence is fueled by a deep sense of marginalization and government neglect, and is exacerbated by internal tensions between the Muslim North and Christian South, now further complicated by a conflict seemingly driven by climate change [00:11:20].
The key question remains how the Nigerian Government will respond [00:11:37]. While concrete steps could address the situation, the president’s recent threats, which Twitter deemed serious enough to remove, suggest the government is not planning to back down [00:11:41]. This raises the prospect of a return to serious violence in southeast Nigeria [00:11:57]. Although a new Biafran War seems unlikely, a major new Biafran conflict is certainly possible [00:12:02].