Validating startup ideas without building them

From: gregisenberg

The concept of validating a startup idea without committing to a full build is explored through the journey of Justin Mayers, co-founder of Kettle and Fire, a business that grew to over $100 million annually [00:00:08]. The core premise is to confirm market demand and willingness to pay before significant investment [00:00:00].

Kettle and Fire: A Day Zero Validation Story

Justin Mayers details the initial steps taken to validate Kettle and Fire in 2014 [00:01:14].

Identifying the Problem

While working at Rackspace, Mayers sought to start his own company [00:01:32]. He had heard about bone broth from friends in CrossFit and read about its benefits for skin, gut, and joint health [00:01:40]. At the time, bone broth was not widely discussed, and finding it online was difficult [00:01:46]. This identified a personal need and a gap in the market [00:01:56].

Validating Market Interest

Mayers focused on two key questions:

1. How many people actually want this product? [00:02:01]
2. Are there enough people, and will they spend enough to sustain a meaningful business? [00:02:06]

To answer these, he employed a two-pronged approach:

• Micro-Level Validation (Community Engagement): Mayers investigated online communities where his target audience (Paleo and CrossFit communities) congregated [00:02:30]. He looked at sites like Mark’s Daily Apple, Paleo Hacks, and Reddit [00:02:39]. He observed traffic levels and the engagement within threads discussing bone broth’s benefits, recipes, sourcing, and cooking methods [00:02:43]. This showed a “small but fanatic and interested” group of people [00:03:03].
• Macro-Level Validation (Google Trends): He used Google Trends to see if “bone broth” was gaining popularity [00:03:17]. The data indicated that interest was “starting to take off” [00:03:21]. This confirmed that thousands of people were interested and searching for the product [00:03:30].

Mayers emphasizes that while he used Google Trends, the idea stemmed from a personal problem and passion within a community he cared about, not a random search for trends [00:04:17]. If Google Trends and subsequent steps had shown no interest, he would not have proceeded [00:05:03].

Validating Willingness to Pay

The next critical step was to determine if people would pay enough to make it a viable business [00:06:05]:

• Minimalist Setup: Mayers purchased the cheapest domain name with “bone broth” in it (BoneBroths.com) for $9.99<aclass="yt-timestamp"data-t="00:06:11">[00:06:11]</a>.Hethenpaid$5 on Fiverr for a basic logo and renders [00:06:35].
• Landing Page and Value Proposition: He created a landing page using Unbounce (a tool from 2015) [00:06:50]. The page highlighted value propositions derived from Paleo forums, such as healing leaky gut, convenience (compared to 24-48 hour home cooking), organic ingredients, and 100% grass-fed bones [00:07:04].
• Pricing Strategy: Despite having no product or production plan, he set a price of $29.99for16ounces,significantlyhigherthantypicalgrocerystorebroth($5 for 16 ounces) [00:07:37]. This high price point was chosen to ensure profitability if demand existed [00:07:58].
• “Fake” Checkout Flow: The “Order Bone Broth Now” button redirected users to Mayers’ personal PayPal account to send him $29.99 [00:08:20]. This “super sketchy checkout flow” was intentionally direct to gauge genuine intent [00:09:14].
• Low-Cost Advertising: He spent about $100 on Bing Ads (cheaper than Google Ads) to drive traffic [00:08:51].
• Results: Over a two-week test, the site achieved a 30% conversion rate for clicking the order button [00:09:20]. He made almost $500in"revenue"froma$250 ad spend [00:09:35]. This validated that people were willing to pay for a non-existent product [00:10:07].

Post-Validation Steps

After validating demand, Mayers emailed all customers who had “purchased” [00:11:04]. He informed them that the product was not yet in stock and offered a full refund or a 50% discount if they waited (which ended up being eight months) [00:11:13]. Most customers chose the discount, demonstrating strong interest [00:11:40]. This period then focused on figuring out how to actually make and scale the product [00:12:08].

Applying the Framework with Modern Tools (2025)

Mayers reflects on how he would approach the same validation process in 2025, leveraging current AI tools and technologies [00:12:35].

Enhanced Tools for Validation

• Improved Design and Landing Pages: AI tools can now create much better landing pages and logos than what was available in 2015 [00:12:43].
• Advanced Sentiment Analysis: AI and other tools can quickly scrape and analyze sentiment across platforms like Reddit, forums, and Twitter [00:12:57].

Despite these advancements, the fundamental principle remains: try to sell a product even if it doesn’t exist to see if people will pay for it [00:13:14]. This can involve direct messaging, emailing, or texting to get initial paying customers [00:13:24].

Choosing Your Focus: CPG vs. Software

When considering startup ideas, Mayers advises focusing on areas of personal passion and expertise, rather than solely on industry trends like software [00:14:11]. His success in CPG (Kettle and Fire, Shirley Wine) stemmed from a deep interest in health and wellness [00:14:30]. He suggests:

• Finding a big problem with relatively few people focused on it, or where energy is moving in that direction [00:17:07].
• Choosing a problem that genuinely “lights you up” and exploring it until interesting ideas emerge [00:17:45].
• Being on the “frontier” of a topic, where your natural interest leads to new and unique ideas [00:15:01].

Recommended Tools and Trends

Mayers highlights the importance of mastering new AI tools for building and scaling businesses:

• Specific Tools: Bolt.new [00:16:00], Rok [00:16:34].
• Frontier Models: Claude, GPT, Gemini [00:16:42].

He asserts that becoming a “top 1% user” of these AI tools offers high leverage for opportunity [00:16:50]. These tools can dramatically reduce the barriers to entry for CPG and other industries, turning what once cost tens of thousands of dollars into a monthly subscription [00:24:24].

AI-Driven Product Redesign Example

The conversation concludes with an example of using ChatGPT-4o to redesign the Kettle and Fire product [00:20:31]. By prompting ChatGPT to imagine a “functional beverage” version of Kettle and Fire that looks “fresh, cool, engaging” [00:20:57], the AI generates product concepts with detailed branding and imagery [00:23:53].

“This is great design. You know, my day we paid an agency I think 60 grand to come up with this vibe and look and all these sorts of things. Um maybe if that collapses to $200 a month, you know what I mean? Like all of a sudden it’s it’s a it’s a different kind of thing.” [00:24:21]

This demonstrates how AI-driven startup ideas and frameworks for developing and testing business ideas can enable a single individual to rapidly design and test multiple AI Startup Ideas, potentially launching a startup in a single day [00:23:24]. The “new types of products that can now be built by like one guy in a basement” underscore the transformative potential of AI tools [00:20:00].