From: allin
Discussions surrounding immigration and its effects on the U.S. labor market often highlight the complex interplay between policy, technology, and economic outcomes. A key point of contention is whether to prioritize open borders for talent or restrict entry due to concerns about job displacement.
Impact of AI and Automation on Jobs
The potential for job displacement due to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and self-driving cars is a significant factor in current immigration debates [04:24:00]. According to one perspective, millions of driver jobs could be lost in the next decade, similar to the loss of cashier jobs [04:27:00]. This could influence how the nation views its borders and immigration, potentially leading to restrictions on the number of immigrants allowed into the country if jobs are being lost to AI and automation [04:37:00].
Wage Pressure and Unrestricted Immigration
A central argument in favor of stricter immigration policies concerns wage pressure on American workers. When borders are open or markets are exposed to products made by cheaper foreign labor, it can create significant wage pressure, particularly for those at the bottom of the economic pyramid [04:50:00]. This perspective suggests that resistance to unlimited immigration stems from “bread and butter kitchen table issues” rather than xenophobia [04:29:00].
Historically, tremendous productivity growth in the U.S. over the last 30 years has largely benefited capital and companies, with labor not fully capturing these gains [04:11:00]. If immigration, especially illegal immigration, were curtailed, it is argued that labor might be able to capture more of the benefits from productivity growth, leading to a more equitable distribution of wealth [04:38:00]. This could help reduce conflict between technologists and the broader workforce [04:50:00]. The correlation between open borders and wage suppression is considered irrefutable [04:08:00].
Legal, High-Skilled, and Assimilated Immigration
Despite concerns about job displacement, there is support for a specific type of immigration. As a first-generation immigrant, one speaker expresses a bias in favor of “some level of immigration” [04:28:00].
The proposed solution differentiates between types of immigration:
- Legal, High-Skill Immigration: This category emphasizes bringing in the “best and brightest” to contribute to technology and societal advancement in the U.S. [04:14:00]. For example, some individuals who studied in the U.S. but were sent back to their home countries contributed to advancements there, highlighting the loss of talent [04:03:00].
- Assimilation: Immigrants should have “room and time for assimilation” and consider themselves American first [04:17:00]. The oath of naturalization should hold meaning, signifying a commitment to American values and the Constitution [04:26:00].
- Rejection of Open Borders: The idea of simply opening borders and letting anyone in is opposed [04:33:00]. The issue is not with high-IQ individuals like Elon Musk or Jensen Huang, but with a general open border policy that has allowed millions to enter [04:41:00].
This perspective argues that the Democratic Party made a significant error by undermining their core constituents through practices that conflated legal and illegal immigration [04:51:00].
Political Calculus and Future Cohorts
A new political calculus identifies three key cohorts for the future:
- The asset-light working and middle class [04:39:00].
- Patriotic business owners [04:48:00].
- Leaders in innovation [04:53:00].
It is suggested that the “MAGA” movement effectively found the common ground intersecting these three groups, leading to policies that reflect their shared interests [04:57:00]. There is little disagreement among these cohorts regarding a targeted form of highly useful legal immigration for very smart people who agree to assimilate and become part of America [05:28:00].
AI and Job Creation
While some fear AI will lead to massive job loss, others argue that technology, including AI, primarily creates new opportunities [05:46:00]. New jobs or opportunities emerge from technological advancements, often replacing old ones with more elevated and interesting roles [05:49:00]. The belief is that job creation by AI will be as fast or faster than job destruction [05:17:00].
The rise of the internet, for example, led to new professions like YouTube streamers and influencers that didn’t exist before [05:24:00]. AI is seen as a productivity tool that increases a worker’s output, enabling more creative and less repetitive work, thereby increasing their value [05:01:00].
Adaptability and New Industries
It is crucial for individuals to remain adaptive and continuously learn to leverage new tools like AI [02:18:00]. The adage “AI won’t take your job, it’s someone using AI that will take your job” rings true, as proficiency with these tools becomes a hiring advantage [02:05:00]. AI tools, being natural language computers, remove the barrier of needing to program in esoteric languages, making them accessible to a wider range of people [02:31:00]. The new programming language is English [02:47:00].
New industries are expected to emerge dramatically, unlocking large-scale technical projects that are currently infeasible, such as habitation in oceans, on the moon, or on Mars [06:26:00]. This technological acceleration is anticipated to drive economic vibrancy and military supremacy, leading to safe and strong societies [09:12:00]. It is argued that the loss of older jobs will happen slower than the creation of new opportunities [09:26:00].
Many startups are now able to bring products to market with very small teams and achieve significant revenue due to AI [01:00:39]. AI enables new startups that could not have existed otherwise [01:00:53].
Broader Economic Implications
The U.S. economy faces challenges including persistent inflation and concerns about interest rates [01:15:00]. While the economy feels precarious to asset holders, the costs incurred from events like the COVID-19 pandemic shutting down the country have contributed to inflation [01:18:44].
Beyond financial considerations, there is a focus on maintaining a functional middle class with good jobs. In a non-tariff world, gains might disproportionately go to the upper and underclass, threatening a functioning democracy [01:18:57]. Strategic industries, such as drone manufacturing, are crucial for national security, necessitating reshoring of critical supply chains [01:19:14]. The U.S. is considered autarkic, possessing the resources to be energy independent and produce necessary goods internally [01:20:08]. Manufacturing jobs involved in building complex physical goods for national security and innovation are seen as “better jobs” than paperwork or driving cars [01:20:55].
Conclusion
The intersection of immigration and labor market dynamics in the U.S. is characterized by a debate between the potential for job displacement by automation and the creation of new opportunities through technological advancement. While calls for stricter immigration policies to protect American jobs and wages are voiced, there is also strong support for targeted, high-skilled, and assimilated immigration to maintain the nation’s technological leadership. Ultimately, the emphasis is on fostering adaptability in the workforce and embracing new technologies to drive future economic growth and opportunity.