From: allin
The term “Cronkite moment” refers to a pivotal point in public perception regarding a conflict, often signaling a shift towards acknowledging its futility or unwinnability [00:11:04].
Origin of the Term: Walter Cronkite and Vietnam
The original “Cronkite moment” occurred during the Vietnam War when Walter Cronkite, then America’s most trusted newscaster, went on a fact-finding mission to Vietnam [00:11:15]. Upon his return, he declared the war to be “basically unwinnable” [00:11:21]. This declaration caused public sentiment to turn significantly against the war, though it still took five years for the U.S. to withdraw [00:11:23], [00:16:20].
Cronkite’s famous quote articulated this shift:
“It is increasing clear to this reporter that the only rational way out will be to negotiate not as Victors but as honorable people who lived up to their pledge to defend democracy and did the best they could” [00:11:31].
The “Cronkite Moment” for the Ukraine Conflict
A recent Time Magazine cover story on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being likened to the “Cronkite moment” for the Ukraine conflict [00:11:50]. The article’s main sources were Zelenskyy’s own aides and advisors [00:11:54].
Revelations from the Time Magazine Article
Zelenskyy’s inner circle reportedly communicated critical insights:
- The war is unwinnable [00:12:02].
- Zelenskyy is “delusional” for not confronting battlefield realities and refusing to engage in peace negotiations with the Russians [00:12:05], [00:12:17].
- Ukrainian Army troops are decimated, and frontline commanders are rejecting orders to advance due to the impossible conditions [00:12:27], [00:12:36], [00:12:40].
- There are accusations of corruption within Ukrainian officialdom, with officials “stealing like there’s no tomorrow” [00:18:27], [00:18:29].
The reporter, Simon Shuster, had previously written a favorable profile of Zelenskyy for Time’s Person of the Year in 2022 [00:14:00], giving him established access to Zelenskyy’s inner circle [00:14:31], [00:13:55]. This credibility makes the report a significant turning point in public perception [00:15:42], as the information is coming from “inside the house” rather than just critics [00:15:53].
Impact on Policy and Markets
Despite the revelations, it is questioned whether this article will immediately change the sentiment of political leaders in the U.S. [00:14:41]. The “uni party” of Republicans and Democrats still largely supports funding for Ukraine, with a proposed $61 billion package [00:16:04], [00:16:07]. Washington policymakers are often the last to acknowledge such shifts [00:16:36].
However, the perceived “terminal outcome” of the Ukraine crisis could be reassuring for markets, as it potentially removes the risk of a “Forever War” [00:17:15], [00:18:00]. The shift from a winnable war scenario to one of sustained corruption and aid is seen as de-risking for investors [00:18:20], [00:18:41].