From: allin
Elon Musk has expressed significant concerns regarding the number of bots and spam accounts on the social media platform, Twitter [00:00:58]. He describes the current situation as a “debate” on the true number of bots, which Twitter has stated is unknowable [00:01:12], “as unknowable as the human soul” [00:01:16].
Estimating Bot Presence
Twitter claims that fewer than 5% of its daily active users are fake or spam accounts [00:02:37]. Elon Musk, however, believes the actual number is likely at least four or five times that, with a lowest estimate of around 20% [00:03:14]. This estimate is supported by analyses from “quite smart outside firms” [00:03:33].
Musk highlights the discrepancy by comparing the reach of popular content to the claimed user base:
- Twitter states it has 217 million “monetizable daily active users” [00:05:12].
- Elon Musk’s tweet about buying Coca-Cola to put cocaine back in it is cited as the most-liked tweet by any living human, with less than 5 million likes (around 4.7 million) [00:04:16], [00:05:00], [00:04:25].
- This means the most popular tweet only reached about 2.5% of the claimed user base, or less than 2% for generally popular tweets [00:05:21], [00:05:34], [00:05:41].
- He contrasts this with YouTube, which has billions of users, and its most popular videos garner “tens of billions of views,” a ratio that “makes a lot more sense” [00:06:05], [00:06:13].
Musk’s concern isn’t just about a few percentage points but whether the bot presence could be as high as 80% or 90% [00:06:37].
Impact on Advertising and Acquisition
The bot problem is “incredibly material” [00:06:52], especially since Twitter’s revenue relies primarily on “brand advertising” (awareness advertising) rather than “click-through advertising” [00:06:55], [00:25:05]. For brand advertising, it’s crucial that “real humans are seeing that” [00:07:09]. If the reality of the bot situation becomes clear, Twitter’s revenue would be “significantly impaired” [00:25:34], [00:25:48].
Twitter has reportedly refused to disclose the number of fake or spam accounts [00:21:59], claiming a complex methodology that only they can understand [00:22:20]. Musk emphasizes the need for an “objective way to assert the thing” [00:22:49], as this represents a “material misstatement” if the actual bot percentage is significantly higher than claimed [00:23:00]. He uses an analogy of buying a house: less than 5% termites is acceptable, but 90% termites is “not okay” and means it’s “not the same house” [00:23:19], [00:23:25].
Musk states that his acquisition offer for Twitter was based on the “truth and accuracy of their public filings” [00:23:47]. If these filings are inaccurate, he “can’t pay the same price for something that is much worse than they claimed” [00:23:55]. He believes the bot problem “should be a lot easier to get rid of” [00:27:21] and that it’s not “splitting the atom” or “getting to the moon” to solve it [00:27:27].
There is speculation that Twitter might not want to look too closely at the bot numbers because they “might not like the answer” [00:27:01], or perhaps they were simply “not paying enough attention” to the problem [00:27:17].
Vision for Twitter without Bots
A key goal for Twitter, whether through an acquisition or a new platform, is to get rid of bots, scams, and trolls [00:09:57]. Musk envisions Twitter as a “public town square” [00:07:34], a “digital town square” [00:29:48] that is spam-free [00:29:20], where “important ideas are debated” [00:29:49]. This requires it to be “maximally trusted and inclusive” [00:29:53]. The ultimate goal is to have an app that is “incredibly useful and that people love using” [00:30:07].