From: allin
Recent discussions within the “All-In Podcast” have touched upon Trump’s proposed “Golden Visa” or “Gold Card” and its potential impact on US immigration policy and the economy.
The “Gold Card” Proposal
The proposal, put forth by Trump and Lutnick, suggests selling green cards for $5 million, granting permanent residency in the United States [00:52:20]. This new program would replace the existing EB-5 visa program [00:52:31]. A key feature of Trump’s proposal is that holders of this “Gold Card” would not have to pay tax on foreign assets [00:54:03]. This is seen as significantly better than a traditional green card, which typically taxes global income [00:54:14].
Chamath initially suggested a similar idea six months prior, proposing to sell citizenship for $500,000, to which Trump “added a zero” [00:49:15]. The proposal has been described as “incredible” and “fan freaking tastic” [00:55:58].
Potential Adoption and Impact
A PolyMarket prediction market for the end of 2025 indicates that the most probable outcome (29% probability) is between 2,500 and 5,000 “Gold Cards” being sold [00:50:19]. Chamath suggested that companies like Apple, Meta, and Microsoft might collectively buy 1,000 to 10,000 of these visas [00:51:30]. If these visas could be swapped between individuals (like a “season pass”), they would be “incredible for recruiting talent” [00:51:45].
The discussion also pondered the number of potential buyers:
- The estimated number of billionaires globally is 4,000-5,000, potentially 10,000-15,000 including “hidden” billionaires [00:52:51].
- There are approximately 28,000 individuals worldwide with a net worth over $100 million, with 17,000 of those outside the US [00:53:12].
- It was posited that individuals with 5 million to get into the US, especially if they could make twice as much money living there [00:53:43].
- One perspective suggests that if vetting processes (like KYC/AML laws) are circumvented, millions of these visas could be sold [00:55:38]. However, another view limits potential buyers to a maximum of 10,000 [00:54:29].
Concerns and Challenges
A significant concern raised is the potential for “gray money” from around the world to enter the US system if robust vetting processes are not in place [00:54:58]. There’s skepticism about how wealth held in cash or gold could be legitimately brought into the US financial system if strict KYC/AML laws are applied [00:55:15].
Broader Immigration Policy and Border Security Context
In related discussions, unemployment rates are noted at historic lows, close to 4% [00:30:02]. However, promised deportations have been modest, ranging from 500 to 1,000 people per day [00:30:14]. To significantly impact unemployment, deportations would need to reach 2,000 to 3,000 people per day, leading to “low millions” being deported [00:30:28]. The connection between Trump’s economic and tariff strategies, including tariffs and slowing immigration, and potential austerity is highlighted as contributing to a negative outlook on economic growth [00:31:30].