From: allin
The first 100 days of the Trump administration are characterized by rapid action and a significant shift in policy, particularly concerning the economy, border security, and social issues [09:04:00]. This period has been described as a “whirlwind” due to the administration’s fast-paced maneuvering, adhering to a “UDA loop” (observe, orient, decide, act) strategy that disorients political opponents and journalists [09:04:00].
Overall Assessment
Panelists offer varied grades for the Trump administration’s first 100 days:
- Chamath Palihapitiya: A B+ grade, citing strong performance in foreign direct investment and border security [12:44:00].
- Jason Calacanis: A B, noting that Americans universally want border security and smaller government [21:52:00]. He compares this to the Biden administration’s C- grade [21:58:00].
- David Sacks: Highlights three main accomplishments: border security, the collapse of wokeism and DEI, and the re-privatization of the economy [16:14:00].
- Aaron Lee: Notes positive momentum in AI policy, particularly being pro-open source and promoting AI innovation in the US [11:09:00].
Key Achievements
Border Security
The administration receives an A+ for completely stopping the border crisis and sealing the border within the first 100 days [16:21:00]. Policies like “remain in Mexico” were restored, contradicting previous claims that new legislation was needed to solve the problem [17:22:24]. This success is seen as a major win, with Americans universally wanting the border secured to prevent illegal immigration and fentanyl [21:27:00].
Foreign Direct Investment
A significant accomplishment is the massive direct investment, specifically foreign direct investment, into the United States, approaching or exceeding a trillion dollars [13:08:00]. This is considered a strategic legacy that will outlast the administration [13:27:00].
Addressing Wokeism and DEI
The administration is credited with ending DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) at the government level and signing an executive order ending the use of “disparate impact” for affirmative action [17:54:00]. This policy previously engineered outcomes to fit quotas, and its collapse is seen as a return to meritocracy and colorblindness [18:22:00].
Re-privatization of the Economy
The Trump administration’s foreign policy and economic strategies aim to re-privatize the economy, reducing government spending and the federal workforce, marking a significant shift in conversation [19:13:00]. Other aspects include:
- Deregulation: A significant number of executive orders have been signed on deregulation [20:08:00].
- Unleashing Energy: Ending the Biden administration’s EV mandate and “green new scam projects” like offshore wind, while encouraging oil and gas exploration [20:13:00].
- Tech Innovation: Repealing the Biden administration’s executive order on AI, which was seen as unnecessary regulation, and ending the “war on crypto” [20:27:00]. This approach aims to stop regulatory capture benefiting large incumbents and set the stage for a “Trump boom” [20:39:00].
Peace Dividend and Foreign Policy
The administration is seen as making significant progress in Ukraine and consistently seeking an “off-ramp” in conflicts [23:24:00]. Concerns about an escalatory path in Ukraine under the previous administration, potentially leading to World War III, are highlighted [25:51:00]. The return to direct diplomacy with Russians is also noted as a positive step [27:48:00].
Areas for Improvement and Criticism
Documents and Transparency
A criticism is the slow release of promised documents, such as the Epstein and Martin Luther King files, with poor communication about the delays [14:43:00].
Economic Uncertainty and Tariff Communications
The communication surrounding tariffs is criticized for not adequately preparing markets for volatility, leading to uncertainty for businesses [15:09:00] [22:12:00]. The suddenness of tariff implementation, going live within a week of announcement, caught many by surprise [10:16:00]. The messaging is seen as inconsistent, unclear whether the goal is to raise tariff revenue or promote free trade [35:34:00].
Rule of Law and Conduct
Concerns are raised about perceived disregard for the rule of law, such as deportations without due process and “third term” talk [22:42:00]. Conflicts of interest, similar to previous administrations (e.g., Hunter Biden), are also highlighted [23:01:00]. There’s a call for crisper communications and less “trolling” from the White House Twitter account [23:08:00].
Economic Impact and Tariffs
Market Reaction and Supply Chain
The initial market reaction to tariffs saw major indices down 7-10% [08:41:00], though the stock market is reported to be only down 4% overall since the policy announcements [14:07:00]. Tariffs are seen as uncovering a reliance on a “brittle supply chain” and China, creating uncertainty for companies like Flexport [01:41:00] [14:21:00].
Ocean freight bookings from China to the US declined by 60% due to tariffs of 154% on goods [29:27:00]. Businesses are finding ways to navigate these tariffs, such as using bonded warehouses in the US, Mexico, or Canada to defer or reduce duties [31:03:00]. This situation, however, causes economic uncertainty and makes it difficult for businesses to plan [22:10:00].
Concerns exist that if tariffs remain high, small businesses that import from China could face bankruptcy, leading to layoffs in the supply chain [34:00:00]. Manufacturers are in China for quality and ecosystem, not cheap labor, making relocation challenging [34:24:00].
Amazon and Import Charges
Amazon initially considered displaying a “tariff notification” on its website for Chinese products, similar to Teemu’s “import charges” [49:14:00]. However, after discussions with the administration, Amazon reversed this decision [49:19:00]. The incident sparked a debate about “buy American” initiatives [51:48:00] and the perception that Amazon had “abandoned” American sellers in favor of foreign competitors who exploit loopholes in import regulations [52:41:00]. Currently, foreign companies can import goods without a registered US entity, and there’s a lack of enforcement against misclassifying goods to pay lower tariffs or importing harmful products [53:17:00].
Policy Approach and Future Outlook
The administration’s approach is characterized by taking rapid action, observing the reaction, and then adapting [45:52:00]. This “whack-a-mole” method, while seen as chaotic by some, is argued to be necessary to address long-standing issues without waiting for lengthy studies [55:01:00]. Key areas of focus for American competitiveness include batteries, AI, pharmaceuticals (APIs), and rare earths [54:45:00].
The administration is trying to balance economic growth with national security concerns, particularly regarding dependencies on countries like China for critical supply chain components [59:32:00]. The goal is to create strategic optionality for the United States in the global economy [01:00:55]. While there is current economic uncertainty, proponents argue it’s too early to declare defeat, emphasizing the need for the Trump’s Economic and Tariff Strategies team to “stick the landing” on trade deals [57:18:00].