From: allin
Travis Kalanick, co-founder and former CEO of Uber, shared his perspectives on the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and their potential impact on urban planning, drawing from his past experiences with Uber and observations of the technology’s development [01:25:06].
Evolution of Autonomous Driving
Kalanick recalled his initial experience in an early Uber autonomous vehicle in Pittsburgh around 2015-2017, which he described as anxiety-inducing, like getting off a roller coaster [01:25:23]. In contrast, he noted that riding in a Waymo vehicle today feels completely normalized and safe, indicating a significant psychological shift and technological advancement [01:26:02]. He emphasized that the increasing affordability of AI advancements contributes to easier and more widespread autonomy [01:27:00]. This is evident in the rapid performance improvements seen in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) models, which showed a tenfold increase in miles per human intervention over a three-month period [01:27:13].
Kalanick contends that autonomous vehicles are “provably safer” than human-driven cars, which should help normalize public perception and reduce hysteria around accidents [01:30:22]. He also highlighted that AVs could offer increased safety by reducing interpersonal problems, particularly during late-night rides [01:30:50].
Challenges and Infrastructure Needs
Despite optimism, Kalanick identified several “long poles in the tent” for widespread AV adoption:
- Hardware and Manufacturing [01:27:49].
- Electricity and Power Grid Capacity [01:28:07]. Kalanick noted that if all miles driven in California were to switch to EV ride-sharing, the state’s energy capacity would need to double [01:28:20]. He cited frequent power outages in affluent Los Angeles neighborhoods as an example of current grid deficiencies [01:28:57]. This challenge led him to a “hot take” suggesting that combustion engine AVs might be necessary for rapid scalability given the state of the electric grid [01:29:17].
- Real Estate and Fleet Management [01:32:27]. This includes electrifying parking lots and setting them up for robotic car cleaning and maintenance [01:32:40]. The need for specialized power substations for robotic systems, similar to data centers, presents a significant infrastructure demand [01:32:50].
- Supply Chain for Rare Earths [01:33:22]. Kalanick pointed out that actuators in robots require permanent magnets, which depend on rare earths primarily controlled by China, posing a geopolitical consideration [01:33:24].
Impact on Urban Planning and Real Estate
Kalanick foresees autonomous ride-sharing leading to a drastic reduction in car ownership, potentially by tenfold [01:34:25]. This would eliminate the need for extensive parking, freeing up 20-30% of urban land [01:34:36]. This “fallow” land presents an opportunity to re-evaluate city planning that currently works backward from traffic and parking constraints [01:35:15].
He suggested potential uses for this liberated land, such as urban hydroponic farms for local, healthy food [01:35:58]. The increased land availability could also lead to a “crashing down” of land prices and, combined with less regulation, make housing more affordable in major cities, similar to what has been observed in areas like Austin, Texas [01:36:10]. However, he cautioned that the pace of this transformation might be constrained by the rate of energy production and grid upgrades [01:36:40]. Utility upgrades are already a “long pole in the tent” for construction development in many U.S. cities [01:37:46].