From: allin
The future of TikTok in the United States is currently uncertain, with a potential ban looming unless its parent company, ByteDance, divests by January 19th, which was “this Sunday” at the time of recording [01:08:40]. If no deal is reached, Google and Apple would be forced to remove TikTok from their app stores, and Oracle, its cloud provider, would cease hosting services [01:08:46]. The only remaining hope for TikTok would be the Supreme Court blocking the law [01:09:01].
Arguments for the Ban
A primary concern driving the TikTok ban is its perceived status as Chinese spyware [01:09:04]. The widespread bipartisan support for the bill in Congress suggests that lawmakers have been briefed on the severity of the app’s security violations, which are considered unprecedented in modern history for their controversial nature yet near-unanimous legislative backing [01:11:25].
It is argued that the Chinese government does not have Americans’ best interests at heart [01:15:40]. The lack of reciprocity, where American companies do not enjoy similar rights or even the ability to operate in China without significant government control or censorship, makes forcing TikTok to divest a “no-brainer” [01:09:30]. The app has been accused of being a “mechanism to spy,” with claims that it is “spyware” and has been used to spy on journalists [01:13:57].
It was also suggested that the two biggest “imports” from China currently are fentanyl and TikTok, implying that China aims to addict Americans, impact society, and divide the country through platforms like TikTok, describing it as a “massive psyop” [01:15:55].
Concerns Regarding the Ban
While acknowledging the national security concerns, there are worries about the law of unintended consequences [01:10:05]. With 170 million Americans, many of them younger, relying on the platform, a ban could be perceived as censorship, potentially leading to a backlash and a feeling of lost freedom of expression [01:10:14]. Users might also migrate to other Chinese-owned apps, like “Red Book,” which is believed to be directly owned by the Chinese government, potentially worsening the problem [01:10:30].
Potential Outcomes and Solutions
The most favorable outcome would be for TikTok to divest and sell to an American company [01:10:44]. This scenario is considered likely to happen under the Trump presidency, with the buyer acquiring an “incredible asset” at a significantly reduced price due to ByteDance’s weakened negotiating position [01:12:11].
One proposal suggests that if X (formerly Twitter) could take over TikTok, transferring its video content and creator graph to a safer American-governed platform, it would be a good compromise, allowing creators to restart their content creation capabilities [01:16:17].
It is speculated that a “grand deal with China” might occur within the first six months of the Trump Administration [01:17:43]. China is currently facing significant economic distress, including deflationary challenges and historically low bond yields [01:17:54]. This weakened position of China, coupled with the U.S.’s position of strength and Trump’s negotiating skills, could lead to a deal that provides access to the Chinese market for the U.S. while minimizing tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially easing tensions and creating mutual economic value [01:18:14].
Chuck Schumer was noted to be calling for a delay in the ban, suggesting that efforts are underway to facilitate a deal and keep TikTok active in the U.S., with both Democrats and Republicans pushing for a resolution [01:17:25].
Technical Aspects
Despite the political controversy surrounding TikTok, its parent company ByteDance possesses remarkable technological innovations. The company’s real-time recommendation algorithm, detailed in a paper called “Monolith,” showcases significant cleverness in its design for collisionless, real-time training [01:12:41]. These “truly amazing feats of computer science” mean that throwing out the entire application might be akin to “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” [01:13:30].
However, the nature of sophisticated exploits means that even open-sourcing the algorithm would not fully address security concerns [01:19:07]. Exploits, like those seen with Pegasus and WhatsApp, can be imperceptible and target devices directly without user interaction, becoming incrementally more sophisticated [01:14:23]. Such attack vectors are known to a few very talented individuals, and if known to intelligence agencies like the NSA, this knowledge could be the basis for the government’s stance on the TikTok ban [01:15:27].