From: allin
The future of AI and humanoid robots is envisioned as leading to immense prosperity and an age of abundance, potentially transforming the global economy [03:55:00].
The Age of Abundance
The rate of improvement of AI is faster than any technology previously observed [00:38:56]. This rapid advancement suggests a future of immense prosperity, where there would be no shortage of goods and services [00:39:32]. With the advent of AI combined with robotics, the cost of manufactured goods and provided services is expected to trend towards zero, allowing everyone to have what they want [00:39:56].
“The cost of goods and services will trend to zero, like I’m not saying it’ll be actually zero but it’ll be everyone will be able to have anything they want” [00:40:05].
Elon Musk estimates an 80% likelihood of this positive future [00:40:19]. However, a potential challenge lies in finding meaning in a world where AI can perform tasks better than humans [00:40:48].
Optimus: The Humanoid Robot
The development of general-purpose humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles is considered crucial for this future [00:41:27]. Once these are achieved, there will be no actual limit to the size of the economy, as productivity per person, augmented by robots, can increase dramatically [00:41:46].
The Optimus project aims to produce humanoid robots at scale [00:47:04].
- Cost: In high volume, after several production versions and reaching a million-unit-plus per year level, the cost of labor and materials for Optimus is projected to be around 20,000, less than a small car [00:47:13], [00:48:15], [00:48:31].
- Development: It typically takes three major iterations for a technology to become excellent [00:46:31]. Optimus is currently in its first version, with the second version expected in volume by the end of next year, and a third major iteration potentially by late 2026 [00:47:50], [00:46:42]. Major iterations are less than two years apart, suggesting a timeline of approximately five to six years to reach million-unit-per-year production [00:49:33].
- Capabilities: Optimus is designed to be a general-purpose robot, learning from human anatomy for design improvements [00:51:15]. For example, the next-generation Optimus hand will have actuators in the forearm, similar to humans, operating fingers via cables, and will feature 22 degrees of freedom, enough to perform almost any human task [00:52:52]. These robots could perform tasks like walking dogs, mowing lawns, watching and teaching children, or even colonizing Mars [00:50:15].
- Future Ratio: It is predicted that the number of robots will vastly exceed the number of humans, with a ratio of at least 2:1 or 3:1 [00:50:00].
Technological Advancements
Tesla’s approach to AI development for self-driving cars involves specific hardware for handling large contexts like gigabytes of high-definition camera data over time [00:43:03].
- Dojo: This is Tesla’s training computer designed for compressing gigantic contexts of video and image data [00:43:27]. Dojo 2 is expected to be comparable to powerful training systems like Nvidia’s B200 type system [00:45:53].
- Inference Chip: Tesla has designed its own AI inference computer for its cars, which is considered superior to anything available from suppliers [00:44:15]. This team has even reinvented network protocols, like a transport control layer over Ethernet, for optimized chip communication [00:44:40].
The development of these robots and AI computing platforms also presents the opportunity for a future where people can feel inspired and look forward to advancements like being astronauts on Mars or even going beyond the solar system [00:33:55].