From: allin

A significant shift is observed in the career aspirations and educational paths of Generation Z, moving away from traditional four-year college degrees towards blue-collar jobs and vocational training. This trend is driven by several factors, including the changing landscape of the job market, the rising cost of higher education, and a re-evaluation of the value of real-world experience over academic credentials [01:09:03].

The “Tool Belt Generation” Emerges

A report in the Wall Street Journal highlights this phenomenon, referring to Gen Z as the “tool belt generation” [01:09:06]. This contrasts sharply with previous generations that largely pursued higher education as the primary path to success.

Declining Tech Jobs and College Enrollment

The tech industry, once a beacon of opportunity for college graduates, has seen a significant downturn in entry-level positions [01:09:35].

  • Developer jobs were down more than 30% since February 2020, according to Indeed [01:09:17].
  • Over half a million tech jobs were eliminated since 2022 [01:09:27].
  • College enrollment peaked at 21 million people in 2010 (both undergraduate and graduate programs), but has since fallen to 8.6 million [01:09:51]. This decline is even more dramatic when considering population growth [01:10:03].

A poll of 1,000 teens in the summer found that about half believe a high school degree, trade program, or two-year degree best meets their career needs [01:10:11]. Additionally, 56% stated that real-world, on-the-job experience is more valuable than a college degree [01:10:20].

Critiques of the Traditional University System

The shift is also a reaction to perceived failings and high costs of the university education system.

  • Student Debt Crisis: Millions have been “tricked” into acquiring trillions of dollars in debt under the premise that a university education guarantees economic stability and freedom, which has proven untrue for many [01:11:00].
  • Overpriced and Undervalued Degrees: Many universities are overpriced, leading graduates to finish with substantial debt and degrees that offer little value in the job market, particularly compared to vocational skills [01:14:16].
  • Lack of Market Correction: The federal government’s funding of student loans, without discrimination between school quality, has inflated education costs and prevented a free market correction [01:15:27].

The Role of AI and job displacement

While some worry about job displacement due to AI, particularly for knowledge workers, the narrative of widespread job loss is considered overdone [01:12:46].

  • Coders, for instance, are 10-30% more productive with AI coding assistants, yet the demand for software remains unlimited, meaning there is still a need for human coders [01:13:12].
  • There will be significant job disruption in knowledge work, such as call centers and service factories, but ample work will remain for humans [01:13:44].

The Value of Human Service and Practical Skills

The economy is beginning to place a higher premium on human touch and practical skills, often associated with blue-collar or artisanal work [01:16:11].

  • There is a growing demand for “human service” jobs, such as electricians, plumbers, fitness instructors, and personal tutors [01:17:46].
  • This trend suggests a “burgeoning and blossoming” in the salaries and demand for human service, as technology and AI reduce the cost and increase the productivity of many other tasks [01:17:31].
  • These roles do not necessarily require a college degree and can offer fulfilling and economically stable careers [01:18:00].

This rebalancing of value from highly industrialized, knowledge-based roles to human-centric, craft-oriented services is a natural consequence of technological advancement and shifts in societal values [01:16:11]. The market is correcting itself, and young people are increasingly choosing paths that offer immediate relevance and less debt, leading to a more diversified and robust workforce [01:15:02].