From: allin
The first presidential debate was held on June 27, 2024 [01:58:19]. The debate was widely perceived as “an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats and President Biden” [02:03:22].
Biden’s Debate Performance
President Biden appeared confused, exhibited numerous slips and gaffes, and notably lost his train of thought for approximately 10 seconds during one segment [02:07:07] [02:12:02] [02:22:20].
“making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the uh with with with the co excuse me with um dealing with everything we have to do with uh look if we finally beat Medicare thank you president uh Biden”
This performance fueled concerns regarding Biden’s cognitive health and its implications for leadership and his aptitude for the presidency [03:12:20] [10:05:07] [13:50:35]. Critics pointed to his “extremely feeble” and “extremely weak” appearance [04:15:35].
Immediate Reactions and Political Fallout
The debate sparked a “deep, wide, and very aggressive panic in the Democratic party” [03:09:25]. This panic, involving party strategists, elected officials, and fundraisers, began minutes into the debate and continued thereafter [03:14:04]. Conversations arose about asking the president to step aside or prominent Democrats making such a call publicly [03:31:07].
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Media Response:
- CNN and MSNBC’s Joy Reid delivered “brutal” reactions [02:54:02].
- One pundit noted that the situation had been “quite frankly a car accident in slow motion” [04:18:14].
- The debate was seen as a deliberate early move by Biden’s campaign to change the narrative, but it instead “sunk his campaign” [04:26:07].
- Some media figures, who had previously affirmed Biden’s cognitive fitness (e.g., Joe Scarborough [10:41:00] and Reed Hoffman [10:55:00]), were criticized for appearing to “lie to the American people” about his private capabilities [11:14:00].
- The rapid shift in media narrative from assuring his fitness to widespread panic exposed their “credibility going down the drain” [25:21:07].
- The media and Democratic party leadership were accused of “lying to America” and being part of a “coverup” regarding Biden’s decline [16:11:00] [25:38:00].
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Prediction Markets & Polls:
- Biden’s standing in prediction markets plummeted from 47% before the debate to 33% after [06:49:00] [06:57:00].
- The probability of Biden dropping out of the presidential race increased to 44% on Polymarket [06:28:00].
- Newsom’s market prediction for the nomination rose to 14%, while Trump’s chance of winning the election stood at 58% [06:41:00] [06:44:00].
Calls for a “Hot Swap” and Implications
The poor performance intensified discussions about a potential “hot swap” of the Democratic nominee, with predictions of a switch occurring within 30 to 60 days [05:20:00] [05:22:00]. The idea is that Biden would be given a “graceful out,” potentially citing age [06:06:00].
The 25th Amendment
Some argue that the situation is “25th Amendment territory,” implying that Biden is not fit to serve out the remainder of his term [20:42:00]. This was described as “elder abuse” [21:04:00].
Comparison to Family Intervention
A personal anecdote compared the situation to a family having to take car keys away from an elderly relative who is no longer fit to drive, suggesting the need to “take the keys away from Biden” [21:09:00].
Concerns were raised that unelected individuals are “trying to control democracy” by propping up a candidate who should be allowed to retire [09:03:00] [09:16:00]. The lack of response from the White House to interview requests was seen as part of a “holistic strategy” to avoid exposing Biden’s capacity [08:08:00].
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Obstacles to a Hot Swap:
- Biden and Jill Biden publicly stated he is not stepping down and it was “just one bad night” [31:15:00].
- There is no mechanism to replace a nominee who has won primary votes without their consent [31:24:00].
- A lack of consensus on a replacement candidate is another issue; Kamala Harris pulls even worse numbers than Biden [32:25:00] [32:31:00].
- Potential candidates like Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama are mentioned as possibilities [32:42:00].
- Without donations, Biden’s campaign would have “no oxygen” [32:07:00].
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Critique of the Democratic Party’s Strategy:
- The party “rigged the primaries” and “boxed out” candidates like Bobby Kennedy and Dean Phillips to ensure Biden’s nomination [17:17:00] [28:13:00] [30:03:00].
- The Democratic Party is viewed as a “collection of interests who want to remain in power,” prioritizing “Pro Power” over genuine opposition to Trump [19:24:00] [28:03:00].
- The use of “lawfare” or partisan legal action against opponents is cited as part of this strategy [05:46:00] [08:26:00].
- The debate format itself was praised for its lack of interruptions, mute mics, and no audience, which allowed for a clearer assessment of the candidates [13:25:00].
Broader Implications for Democracy
The perceived decline of President Biden and the party’s handling of it were seen as a subversion of democracy [15:51:00]. The public was described as not wanting to elect a “shadow cabinet of handlers to run America” [17:01:01]. The coordinated effort to “obfuscate his decline” has eroded trust [17:19:00].
Comparisons were made to Warren Buffett, who, despite his age, transparently interacts with shareholders for hours, allowing them to assess his capability [18:13:00]. This contrasts with the Biden administration’s approach of hiding him and only allowing “packaged interviews” [18:54:00].
The situation is seen as an embarrassment for America and the fact that these are the two leading candidates for the US presidential election [24:54:00] [25:00:00]. It is argued that the current situation prevents a healthy product environment and market where new entrants can effectively compete against large incumbents [11:15:47].