From: allin
Overview of the Current Conflict in Gaza
As of the discussion, Israel had formed a perimeter around Gaza City, bisecting Gaza into northern and southern parts [00:13:22]. Their strategy appeared to be a gradual close-in on the Hamas tunnel network to eliminate Hamas from northern Gaza, with an assumed future movement to the South [00:13:35].
Internationally, protests were observed in the West and the Arab/Muslim world, alongside statements condemning Israel from regional leaders, notably a harsh and threatening one from Turkey’s President Erdoğan [00:13:56].
Israeli Strategy and Assessment
In the immediate aftermath of the October 7th attacks, a major concern was that Israel, having been caught off guard militarily and intellectually, might react emotionally to the “very, very heinous” attacks [00:14:44]. However, Israel’s subsequent methodical steps, taking time to prepare supply lines and garner international support, were deemed wise [00:15:26]. The attacks killed not only Israeli citizens but also American, German, Thai, and UK citizens [00:15:41]. Hostages also include non-Israeli citizens [00:15:47].
Gaza is described as a “very, very complicated place” and “booby trapped like crazy” [00:15:58]. The current goal for Israel is the elimination of Hamas [00:16:33].
Hamas’s Role and Impact on Palestinians
Hamas is seen as the “root cause of a lot of the bad lives for the Palestinians” [00:16:59]. Before October 7th, over half of Gaza’s population lived below the poverty line, trapped in difficult conditions [00:17:08]. Concerns from the previous U.S. administration about Hamas’s misuse of aid have been validated [00:17:18]:
- Schoolhouses were found with rocket launchers [00:17:25].
- Hospitals were used as military headquarters, according to interrogated terrorists [00:17:32].
- A vast tunnel network, hundreds of miles long, was built using cement meant for housing [00:17:40].
- Pipes intended for water infrastructure were converted into rockets [00:17:57].
- Fuel meant for hospitals and civilian life was stolen to operate the tunnel network and fuel rockets [00:18:00].
Israel has informed Gaza civilians to flee, but Hamas has used snipers to prevent them from leaving, wanting them to stay as human shields in schools and hospitals where terror activities were conducted [00:20:39]. Some Gaza civilians have reportedly thanked Israeli Defense Forces for liberating them from Hamas [00:21:03].
International and Regional Dynamics
There is a growing chorus of countries denouncing Israel, calling the bombing of Gaza “indiscriminate” and “collective punishment,” with some demanding a ceasefire [00:18:51]. Threats have come from Turkey’s Erdoğan and Iran, though Iran appears to prefer avoiding a wider regional war [00:19:21].
The immediate threat is from Hezbollah in the north, which Israel and the U.S. have prepared for with full alert and battle carriers, sending a strong message to Iran and Hezbollah [00:21:24]. Israel is a nuclear power, and there’s a realization that Iran is trying to manipulate situations through proxies [00:22:03].
While some leaders like Erdoğan express a “big heart for the Palestinian people,” they also know that much of the Palestinians’ plight is due to “bad governance” [00:22:39]. The best way to improve lives in Gaza is to eliminate Hamas and establish a structure for freedom and opportunity [00:22:45].
Historical Context of Israel-Palestine Issue
The current situation is deeply rooted in history, with key events including:
- 1948: Post-Holocaust, post-World War II, the UN proposed a partition plan for Jewish and Palestinian states. Israel accepted, but Arab nations rejected and attacked, leading to war and displacement of Palestinians [00:23:40]. Some Arabs who stayed became Israeli citizens with equal rights [00:24:34].
- 1967 (Six-Day War): Egypt attacked Israel, but Israel won, expanding its territory to include the West Bank (previously Jordan’s) and the Gaza Strip (previously administered by Egypt) [00:24:41]. From 1948 to 1967, Arab leaders used the Palestinian issue to stoke nationalism and deflect from domestic shortcomings [00:25:21].
- Post-1967: Yasser Arafat, a “young terrorist” at the time from the Fatah party, took over the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) [00:25:51]. His group caused trouble in Jordan, leading King Hussein to expel them, and they moved to Lebanon [00:26:16]. After Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Arafat fled to Tunisia [00:27:12].
- 1988: The PLO finally convinced the Arab League to acknowledge a Palestinian state in the West Bank [00:27:41]. Hamas emerged around this time, rooted in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, advocating “full terrorism” to prevent compromise with Israel [00:28:05].
- 1991 (Gulf War): The Palestinian leadership supported Saddam Hussein, angering Gulf leaders who then cut off funding, which weakened the PLO and led to the Oslo Accords [00:28:20]. The Oslo Accords meant the PLO dropped the goal of destroying Israel to seek legitimacy for a Palestinian self-governance area [00:29:17].
The “New Middle East” and Economic Focus
Over the last 30 years, a “new Middle East” has emerged, characterized by economic opportunities in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar [00:29:43]. The divide in the Middle East is now between leaders who want to create opportunity for their people and those who “want to use religion or whatever issue they want to hold on to from the past” to justify bad leadership [00:30:16]. Gulf countries now want the Israel-Palestine issue resolved, as it is primarily useful only to Iran, which backs groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to perpetuate instability [00:30:30].
This period is seen as the “last gasp of Iran and those who have pushed for destabilization” against a future of a “collaborative Middle East” [00:31:07].
Challenges and Potential Paths to Peace
The challenge in military operations against Hamas is distinguishing between military targets and civilians, given Hamas’s embeddedness [00:32:10]. While top leaders are military targets, many mid-level and younger members are involved circumstantially [00:33:09]. A key goal is “significantly degrading the capabilities” of Hamas to threaten Israel [00:38:00].
Role of Economic Development and Governance
“You can’t kill your way out of an ideology but there obviously are some bad leaders at the top who are culpable who are who are military targets” [00:33:05]
Once military operations are completed, a framework is needed where people have hope and opportunity to prevent radicalization [00:37:26]. This means a paradigm where the next generation sees it as better to “get a job, be part of the economy, and where they can live a better life through capitalism, than by going to to these jihadist groups” [00:37:44].
The root problem for Palestinians is “bad leadership” and governance, not solely Israel [00:52:53]. The Palestinian Authority (PA), last elected in 2005, is not popular and is seen as corrupt, with funds not trickling down to the people [00:51:21]. Foreign aid to groups like UNRWA has been criticized for not being conditions-based and potentially diverting to terror activities [00:57:59].
The Two-State Solution
The idea of a two-state solution is often considered the only path to stability, but the term “state” is loaded and requires pragmatic interpretation [00:50:25].
- A Palestinian state must pose “no security threat to Israel” [00:50:36].
- It needs a “functioning economy” to avoid grievance [00:51:07].
Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, forcibly removing 50,000 Israeli settlers and transferring governance to Palestinians, resulted in Hamas winning elections and the area becoming a security risk for Israel with no economic improvement [00:49:09]. Historically, no entity has lost three offensive wars and maintained its claim over territory [00:50:04].
The Palestinian claim for East Jerusalem as its capital only emerged in 1988 with the declaration of a Palestinian state, not historically [00:48:38]. This is seen as a “cliche” rather than a pragmatic solution [00:48:51].
The Trump Administration’s Approach
The Trump administration sought to “change” the Middle East rather than just “manage” it [00:57:28]. Key actions included:
- Abraham Accords: Five peace deals between Israel and majority-Muslim countries were achieved [00:57:42].
- Confronting Iran: Iran was “totally broke” by the end of Trump’s term, with oil sales reduced from 2.6 million to 100,000 barrels a day, cutting their foreign currency reserves [00:57:50].
- Counter-Terrorism Funding: A counter-terror finance center was established with Gulf countries to stop funding to terrorist organizations [00:35:10].
- Counter-Extremism: Saudi Arabia established a counter-extremism center to combat online radicalization and replace radical clerics [00:35:28].
- Cutting Palestinian Aid: Funding to UNRWA was cut, as it was believed to be supporting “terror tunnels and rockets” rather than genuinely aiding refugees [00:58:11].
The Trump peace plan, released right before COVID-19, included a 54-page political part and an 181-page economic part [01:02:13]. It received endorsements from both right and left-wing Israeli politicians [01:02:25]. The plan allowed for a “state” with a flag, but with Israel retaining “overriding security controls” [01:02:58].
“The biggest problem the Palestinians have faced over the last called 25 years since since Oslo I guess almost 30 years now since Oslo is is just bad governance” [01:14:14]
Palestinians have a high literacy rate and a decent healthcare system, thanks to U.S. and international donations [00:53:56]. They also possess tremendous tourism sites [00:54:18]. However, a lack of fair judiciary, rule of law, and transparent institutions makes it an “uninvestable place” [00:52:40]. An instance where Palestinian economy flourished under Salam Fayyad was short-lived because his popularity led to his removal by President Abbas [00:54:34].
Future Prospects
It is believed that the conflict can be fixed with “strong and smart” leadership [01:16:16]. New ideas are needed, rather than relying on old institutions and people who have failed [01:19:19]. While a two-state solution is possible, especially in the West Bank, its viability hinges on Israel’s security and a functioning Palestinian economy [01:03:12].
The large number of Palestinians who previously held work visas to Israel, leading to productive cooperation, is noted as a positive example [01:03:36]. The current distrust means these are not being renewed [01:03:41]. Historically, Jews, Muslims, and Christians lived peacefully in the Middle East for over a thousand years before World War II [01:04:14]. The Abraham Accords were seen as a step towards reverting to this era of peaceful coexistence [01:04:22].
The Middle East tensions and Israel’s intelligence operations are currently being impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war, which is seen as a proxy war for Russia, aiming to stretch and distract the U.S. from other areas of conflict [01:29:50]. The focus remains on avoiding nuclear war [01:30:37]. International relations are complex; countries have interests, not permanent allies or enemies, and areas of overlapping interest can be found even amidst opposition [01:30:37].