From: allin
Traditionally, understanding who is winning an election involved looking at polls, despite their imperfections, which sometimes included outdated methods like calling landlines [00:00:56]. Models like 538 also aggregate these poll results [00:06:05]. However, in the current election cycle, there’s a strong focus on prediction markets, also known as betting markets, due to participants having “skin in the game” [00:06:07]. The accuracy of these markets compared to traditional polls and aggregators is a key discussion point [00:06:26].
Current Political Landscape and Predictions
Recent shifts in prediction markets reflect significant changes in the political dynamics [00:06:30]. For example, in a 24-hour period, VP Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the Democratic nominee increased from 18% to 50%, while President Biden’s dropped from 66% to 28% [00:06:39]. Other potential “moonshot” candidates like Michelle Obama and Gretchen Whitmer also saw their odds rise from low single digits to 1-2% after a recent debate [00:06:52].
A key chart from Polymarket indicates that the chances of Biden dropping out reached 77% [00:07:27]. Despite a White House spokesman denying a New York Times report that Biden was considering dropping out [00:07:16], the political landscape is in a “feeding frenzy” [00:11:12].
Biden’s Future and the Democratic Strategy
President Biden is scheduled for an interview with George Stephanopoulos, which is seen as a critical moment for his presidency [00:08:27]. If he appears “sharp and responsive” [00:08:33], it could quell speculation about his cognitive decline; otherwise, he might be “done” [00:08:53].
There are differing views on the Democratic Party’s strategy:
- One theory, dubbed “hot swap summer,” suggests a scenario where Biden resigns, leading to a “Democratic primary speedrun” with multiple debates to quickly select a new nominee [00:11:50]. This would allow the party to appear democratic and generate public interest, aiming to “demolish Trump” [00:12:21].
- A counter-argument is that running a debate would show the party as weak and diffuse [00:13:31].
- Prediction markets suggest that if Biden steps aside, Kamala Harris is the only feasible alternative [00:14:24]. Sidestepping her would offend a major Democratic constituency and risk losing roughly a billion dollars in campaign contributions [00:14:03].
- Another perspective suggests that the Democratic Party, being run by “political insiders” who dislike billionaires, would never hand over the party’s reins to an outsider [00:16:13]. This means it’s “Kamala or bust” for them [00:18:45].
- The media has been accused of a “gigantic cover up” of Biden’s cognitive decline, actively suppressing questions and labeling videos as “clean fakes” [00:27:02]. This lack of an “honest media” means there’s no check and balance on power [00:30:03].
Some argue for the Democratic Party to consider an “outsider” candidate like Jamie Dimon or Bob Iger [00:33:17]. These individuals could self-fund, bring credibility, business success, and executive authority, potentially winning votes away from Trump [00:33:49]. However, a past attempt by Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire, failed due to public perception [00:15:31].
Urgency and Consequences
The electoral system operates on a tight schedule, with decisions needing to be finalized by mid-August at the latest [00:25:02]. The ongoing “dribble” of information and controlled access to the President is not dispelling concerns about his capabilities [00:23:29]. There’s concern that if Biden is not fit to run, he might not be fit to serve out the rest of his term, potentially leading to his resignation [00:19:53]. This would elevate Kamala Harris to President, imbuing her with “gravitas and credibility” [00:20:14], despite previous concerns about her readiness [00:20:29].
The situation is deemed “precarious” [00:21:16], especially given the global context of the war in Ukraine, where American cluster bombs have been used against Russian civilians [00:21:05]. The Democratic Party leadership’s decision on how to proceed will be “very revealing” of their thinking [00:19:04]. The donor class, which is reportedly “fleeing the ship,” may also be pushing for a change in leadership [00:19:14].