From: allin
Discussions around defense spending highlight the significant impact of technological advancements, particularly AI, on future military strategies and efficiency [00:35:14].
Calls for Budgetary Efficiency
Defense Secretary Pete Hegf has reportedly proposed an 8% cut from the defense budget annually for the next five years, aiming for nearly $300 billion in savings [00:34:55]. This comes amidst concerns that the U.S. Defense Department has not passed a basic audit, indicating potential inefficiencies [00:35:09].
Patrick argues that these proposed cuts are not unprecedented, noting that a reduction of similar magnitude occurred in the defense budget between 2010 and today [00:41:36]. There is also broad bipartisan agreement in Washington on the inefficiency and opacity of defense procurement, a long-standing issue highlighted by works like James Fallows’ book in the late 1980s and Augustine’s laws [00:41:51].
Technology’s Role in Modern Warfare
Chamath suggests that military spending should be “downstream from technology” [00:35:29]. He advocates for prioritizing the productization of advanced capabilities in AI and autonomy to build a modern war machine [00:35:42]. As an example of current inefficiencies, he points to a CBO red flag on a Navy project to appropriate $1.2 trillion to build frigs, which are expensive and take years to build [00:35:54].
Companies like Sanic, Saildrone, and Anduril are emerging players in defense technology, securing significant raises and contracts with branches like the Navy and Army [00:36:32]. The criticism is that the current military procurement system relies heavily on system integrators who excel at contracting rather than inventing [00:36:53].
Shifting Global Dynamics and Defense Needs
Freeberg introduces the idea that a shift in global strategy from U.S. primacy to a multi-polar world could impact defense spending [00:38:31]. In such a context, the need for extensive investments in global defense, conflicts, arsenals, and military bases might decrease [00:39:08]. This could lead to a more peaceful, multi-polar world with open global trade relationships and economic benefits from advances in technology [00:39:41].
New technologies are changing the battlefield:
- A 10 million piece of equipment, as seen in the Ukraine-Russia conflict [00:40:03].
- China’s drone factories can produce millions of drones each month [00:40:08]. These advancements raise questions about the continued necessity of traditional military assets like aircraft carriers and tanks [00:40:21].
Patrick recommends “Boyd” by Robert Coram, a book about Air Force Colonel John Boyd, who was part of a reformist movement and influenced the design of fighter jets like the F-16 and A-10 [00:42:27].
AI as an Enabler for Complex Projects
Dave suggests that AI can play a crucial role in deeply complicated human projects that were previously infeasible [01:34:35]. This includes areas like planetary defense, where AI could build complete project models in software to address problems like asteroid trajectories and counter-measures [01:35:10].
The development of “Evo2” by Arc Institute, the largest open-source AI model in biology, demonstrates the power of these new models. Trained on 9 trillion base pair gene tokens (the language of life), Evo2 can predict the pathogenicity of human genome mutations, even with minimal human genome data in its training set [01:04:10]. This points to a new “read-think-write loop” in biology enabled by technologies like single-cell sequencing, functional genomics, and AI/ML [01:02:26].
The Future of Defense Spending and Innovation
The ongoing shift towards AI and other advanced technologies suggests a future where defense spending may need to be reallocated and re-prioritized to leverage these new capabilities effectively [00:35:14]. The focus on efficiency and innovation rather than traditional, costly procurement could lead to more dynamic and effective defense strategies [00:41:51].