From: allin
China is rapidly advancing its nuclear energy capabilities, demonstrating a significant competitive edge in electricity production and new capacity buildout compared to the United States [01:27:22]. This progress is highlighted by new reactor technologies and ambitious long-term plans [01:27:28].
Current and Projected Electricity Production
Today, China possesses approximately 3 terawatts (TW) of total electricity production capacity [01:27:53], with nuclear power accounting for about 2% to 3% of that total [01:27:59]. In contrast, the United States has roughly 1 TW of total electricity production capacity [01:27:47].
By 2050, China aims to triple its electricity production to 8.7 TW [01:28:16], with 88% of its power from renewables [01:28:24]. By 2060, China targets 18% of its overall power to come from nuclear reactors [01:28:30]. The US projects to double its capacity to 2 TW by 2050 [01:28:07], mainly through natural gas, solar, and wind [01:37:10].
Nuclear Reactor Development
China currently has 26 nuclear reactors under construction [01:28:33] and plans for building 300 more [01:28:39]. Their stated plans include 500 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity, which is half of the total US electricity production capacity today [01:28:45].
Generation IV Reactors: High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Pebble-Bed Reactor (HTR-PM)
China has made significant strides in Generation IV nuclear reactors, specifically with their High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Pebble-Bed Reactor (HTR-PM) [01:30:54].
- Safety Profile: This new technology demonstrates that it “cannot melt down” [01:30:35], addressing concerns associated with older reactors like Fukushima [01:31:06]. During tests, even with cooling turned off, the system maintained temperature control and did not fail [01:32:30].
- Older reactors require continuous water pumping to cool uranium rods, and failure of this system or inability to pull rods can lead to a meltdown [01:33:43].
- Design: The HTR-PM uses billiard-ball-sized pebbles with uranium cores that drop into a central reactor chamber. Heat is generated when uranium is close to other uranium, captured by circulating helium gas, which then heats water to drive a turbine and generate electricity [01:32:51].
- Efficiency and Waste: These Gen IV reactors are smaller, more modular, safer, more efficient, and produce much less waste compared to previous generations [01:34:18]. Used pebbles still require underground storage for 10,000 years [01:34:25].
- Development and Operation: Construction of China’s HTR-PM facility at the Shidaowan site in Shandong Province began in 2012 [01:32:12]. Operational tests started in December 2022, and safety tests were successfully completed in the summer of 2023 [01:32:25]. Commercial operations commenced in December 2023, with the reactor actively producing power and on the grid [01:34:50]. The design for this reactor was first proposed in the 1940s [01:35:01].
Economic Competitiveness
China’s electricity costs are significantly lower than those in the US:
- Current Cost: China averages 7 to 9 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), while the US is 17 to 25 cents per kWh [01:28:57].
- Projected Cost: China expects to drop its price to less than 6 cents per kWh due to the expansion of renewables and nuclear power [01:29:08].
- New Capacity Buildout Cost: The International Energy Agency estimates electricity from nuclear power costs 105 in the US and $140 in the EU [01:29:43]. Recent data suggests US costs can be five to ten times what it costs to build out in China [01:29:50].
This cost differential highlights a major industrial challenge for the United States in the coming decades, particularly as industries like AI will be heavily driven by power costs [01:30:11].
Strategic Implications
The disparity in energy production and cost creates a long-term competitive disadvantage for the United States [01:29:59]. The inability to rapidly accelerate high-power output systems like nuclear power could lead to conflict with this rising power [01:35:51]. Investing in and deregulating nuclear reactor technology in the US is deemed critical for maintaining a competitive playing field with China, impacting national security and industrial strength [01:35:32].