From: allin
Artificial intelligence (AI) has entered a new era of development with platforms like OpenAI’s GPT models, particularly the conversational interface ChatGPT. These advancements are poised to significantly impact numerous industries and professional roles [01:14:50].
OpenAI’s ChatGPT: Capabilities and Underlying Technology
ChatGPT is a chat interface built upon OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 model [01:10:22] [01:10:26]. This model produces “stunning” results, generating human-like text in various styles and formats [01:10:32] [01:12:05]. The GPT-3.5 model was trained in three steps: data collection, a supervised learning phase involving human tagging, and a human-ranking system for output optimization [01:13:53] [01:14:11]. The software package for this model is relatively small, approximately 100 gigabytes [01:14:32] [01:14:34].
While impressive, current AI models like ChatGPT are considered “brittle,” excelling at specific tasks and simple questions (95-99% accuracy) but struggling with the “exceptionally hard” 1-2% of use cases requiring precise, guaranteed correct answers [01:23:33] [01:23:37] [01:25:56]. This final percentage of accuracy can take decades to achieve [01:25:57].
Impact Across Various Fields
The capabilities of AI models suggest a profound impact on different industries and technical fields:
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Knowledge Work Automation
- Many human knowledge worker roles and functions could be replaced [01:15:01].
- This includes tasks like homework assistance [01:15:06].
- Software engineers could see their code optimized or even written by AI [01:15:09] [01:15:12].
- Customer support roles are particularly vulnerable, as the cost of human labor could approach zero [01:15:33] [01:15:44].
- Service industries like real estate and insurance sales could also see AI-powered software interfaces replace human roles [01:15:17].
- Writers and copywriters might use AI to generate numerous versions of commercials or advertisements [01:15:26].
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Disruption of Existing Business Models
- The search engine industry, especially Google’s core search business, faces potential disruption by natural language chat interfaces [01:17:16] [01:19:32]. Unlike traditional search results that provide links, AI can construct detailed, multi-paragraph answers directly [01:20:06]. This shifts the focus from indexing and linking to direct information provision [01:17:47].
- The Software as a Service (SaaS) model is expected to be replaced by “Models as a Service” (MaaS), where single-use AI models provide specific functions [01:21:45] [01:22:55] [01:25:28].
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Creative Arts and Journalism
- AI is impacting creative arts and journalism, with models capable of generating scripts or even complex arguments that mimic human conversation [01:20:29] [01:20:51] [01:34:04]. This includes movie and music production, and advertising [01:33:56].
- The rise of independent journalists and creators leveraging platforms like Substack, podcasts, and Twitter reflects a shift in media consumption, as consumers seek out unbiased sources and expertise [01:49:01] [01:51:24].
Economic and Societal Implications
The emergence of powerful AI capabilities is creating a new “hype cycle” and likely a “bubble cycle” in Silicon Valley, as investors flock to generative AI businesses [01:15:57] [01:16:11]. This marks a significant moment, comparable to the advent of the internet [01:15:54].
The ultimate value in AI lies in finding proprietary data sources for training models [01:24:04] [01:24:28] [01:35:14]. Industries that can vertically integrate to gain exclusive access to large, unique datasets, such as healthcare with patient data or technology companies with device-collected data, will have a competitive advantage [01:24:47] [01:36:31] [01:37:25]. This shift makes “data the new oil” [01:36:55].
Investors and entrepreneurs are advised to carefully select markets where AI’s “last mile” does not depend on undefined regulatory pathways [01:38:00] [01:38:40]. For instance, medical diagnostics using AI has an established FDA approval process, unlike the less defined regulatory landscape for Level 5 autonomous driving [01:38:19] [01:38:24]. This highlights the importance of considering regulatory readiness for AI and its implications.
The impact of AI suggests a profound transformation in job markets and business models, marking a new chapter in the future of AI impact on job markets and business models.