From: allin
The topic of abortion has become a “very sensitive topic” in American politics, particularly concerning a woman’s right to control her body, which many women view as an unalienable right. The debate surrounding this issue, even when it is returned to individual states, generates significant emotional responses [01:35:30].
Impact of the Dobbs Decision
The Dobbs Supreme Court decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, removed the federal right to abortion and returned the authority to regulate or ban abortion to individual states [01:37:04]. This issue has historically fragmented America for 50 years [01:36:51]. With the issue now at the state level, most states are either fully embracing pro-choice policies or settling on a compromise regarding the number of weeks for legal abortion [01:37:11]. At the federal level, no political party appears eager to address the issue further [01:37:37].
State-Level Referenda and Outcomes
Several states have held referenda on abortion rights, demonstrating varied outcomes:
- Florida
- Voters rejected a proposed amendment that would have codified abortion procedures up to 24 weeks in the state constitution, receiving 57% of the vote against the required 60% [01:35:54], [01:36:05], [01:36:12].
- Florida previously had a 15-week abortion ban, with a current six-week ban taking effect in May [01:35:58], [01:36:02].
- The 24-week proposal may have been considered “a little bit too many” by some voters [01:37:20].
- Pro-choice codification: Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Colorado, and Arizona all voted to codify the right to abortion or remove abortion bans [01:38:32], [01:38:36].
- Abortion bans/restrictions: Nebraska voted for a ban on abortions after the first trimester, and South Dakota voted against a right to abortion, thus prohibiting all abortions except when medically necessary [01:38:41], [01:38:47], [01:39:50].
- Shift in Red States: Even in traditionally “deep red States” like Ohio, pro-choice forces have won referenda, with only a small number of exceptions where pro-life efforts have succeeded [01:39:56].
Political Impact on Elections
Despite predictions that the Dobbs decision would negatively impact Donald Trump and drive women to vote for Kamala Harris in droves, this did not occur [01:37:43], [01:37:50]. Trump managed to increase his share of the women’s vote, though he did lose support among college-educated women [01:37:57]. His strategy to “inoculate” himself on the issue involved clearly stating his opposition to a national ban, favoring exceptions, and declaring the issue was now a matter for individual states [01:38:08]. This stance was accepted by voters, including women, effectively making abortion a state-level issue rather than a federal one for this election cycle [01:38:25].
It is suggested that the salience of abortion as a deeply fragmenting issue in American politics, which has been prominent for 50 years, is nearing its end as states continue to resolve it individually [01:36:47], [01:39:07]. Republicans are aware not to “touch” this issue at the federal level [01:39:21].
The economic implications for states with strict abortion bans are also noted, with companies in states like Texas reportedly facing difficulties attracting both women and men due to concerns over abortion laws [01:40:07], [01:40:11]. This situation could make it “untenable for an economy” [01:40:23].