From: acquiredfm
The perception and reality of major technology companies like Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft have significantly evolved over the past decade [02:29:00]. Early analyses of the internet’s impact and the future of these giants often proved to be incorrect, with widely held beliefs contradicting their eventual trajectories [02:23:00].
Apple’s Resilience
A decade ago, in 2013, many believed that Apple was “doomed” [00:00:02]. However, this perception was challenged by early analysis which correctly predicted that Apple would, in fact, “be doing very very well” [02:16:00].
Facebook’s Dominance
Similarly, despite its initial public offering (IPO) being considered a “disaster,” Facebook has become “way more dominant and valuable than anyone thinks” [00:00:06]. A decade ago, the idea of Facebook’s future dominance was “very controversial” [00:00:13], but it is now widely understood [00:00:11].
Microsoft’s Re-emergence
Microsoft was also perceived to be “doomed to irrelevance” [02:36:00]. However, a clear path forward for Microsoft’s business strategies and market influence was identified, contrary to popular belief at the time [02:33:00].
Evolving Understanding of the Internet
Beyond individual companies, the broader understanding of the internet’s nature has shifted. Initially, it was widely believed that the internet was “inherently decentralizing” [00:00:03]. However, early insights argued that the internet is actually “centralizing,” and that the dynamics of its growth and impact were widely misunderstood [02:21:00]. This understanding is now common knowledge [02:27:00].
The Challenge of Communicating Evolving Insights
The continuous evolution of the tech landscape presents challenges for articulating insights about these companies. Canonical works, like books, become “frozen in time” [03:54:00], making it difficult to revise or correct outdated analyses [04:20:00]. The transient nature of the internet and its content is better suited for continuous revision [04:38:00].
Early attempts to articulate theories about the internet’s economic power, such as “economic power in the age of abundance,” were often “too early” [07:37:00] and not well-received [07:21:00], highlighting the importance of timing and clear branding for complex ideas to gain traction [07:02:00].
The ability to continuously update and contextualize analysis within current events is crucial for helping people understand and share insights [08:37:00]. This is particularly relevant for reflections on technology companies and their evolution and their broader impact on society.